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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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Thinking 3-6" is a reasonable call for YYZ with a change over to wet snow/slop that will have a tough time accumulating mid event. GFS, cmc and euro are suggesting that surface temps get in and around 35f when WAA peaks. NAM is further south and keeps sfc temps below 0c for the duration. 18z NAM bufkit indicating ~6" but I suspect thats on the high end of possible outcomes.

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Don't count yourself out yet

 

See storm of Feb 2011

Hopefully if it does switch to rain we switch back to snow soon enough to build some more accumulation. Sadly, that doesn't seem to happen very often south of 8-Mile. It's usually snow, snow, snow, IP, Freezing Rain, Rain, Fog, Fog, Fog, Rain Shower, then backside wind-blown flurries as the dry slot works out.

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Hopefully if it does switch to rain we switch back to snow soon enough to build some more accumulation. Sadly, that doesn't seem to happen very often south of 8-Mile. It's usually snow, snow, snow, IP, Freezing Rain, Rain, Fog, Fog, Fog, Rain Shower, then backside wind-blown flurries as the dry slot works out.

 

Probably be 3 quick inches...then several hours of crap then another quick 2-3". That is the way I see it. 

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I think so too but this NW trend needs to stop ... :yikes:

 

I doubt it gets far enough NW to give your area mixing issues.

 

Besides that, you have elevation on your side.

 

It's just pissing me off that this event seems very similar to what Philadelphia saw during the Lions game (with the intense snowfall rates and the huge snowflakes) and we may have mixing issues here. 

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