Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Was ripping here earlier with +SN and lots of wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would say +SN but hard to tell with the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6"+ in the watch with rates of 1-2"/hr possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 looking forward to my first non-powder warning event of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 6"+ in the watch with rates of 1-2"/hr possible. 5-8 might be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 High thickness and 0C at 850mb nearby...what did you expect. Decent lift/moisture in the DGZ and high precipitation rates (which may be the case with this system) can easily make up for marginal near-surface temps to improve ratios. See the 18z NAM from yesterday for example. But it was just an observation. 18z NAM as it stands now is sort of a southern outlier compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 5-8 might be the way to go. They still have time to adjust numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 SREF plume means for RFD, DKB, ORD, and JOT all at between 6 and 6.75". About 1" previous included in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 SREF plume means for RFD, DKB, ORD, and JOT all at between 6 and 6.75". About 1" previous included in there. dropped from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 looking forward to my first non-powder warning event of the year +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like a solid 6-10 inch storm from Chicago straight over to Toronto. Need temperatures to be a bit cooler. Hoping we can work in some CAD given the PV across the north. And 6-10" is too optimistic. I'm going for 2-4" currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 SREF plume means for RFD, DKB, ORD, and JOT all at between 6 and 6.75". About 1" previous included in there. What is it for YYZ? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 messy... ... FRIDAY SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW...THEN SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. SATURDAY...NOT AS COLD. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN UNTIL MIDDAY THEN RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I would say +SN but hard to tell with the wind. Not the worse +SN but as you can tell visibilty just isn't that great... Maybe 5-6 blocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Need temperatures to be a bit cooler. Hoping we can work in some CAD given the PV across the north. And 6-10" is too optimistic. I'm going for 2-4" currently. You think .75+ QPF is going to yield 2-4 inched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 51 mph gust at Gary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 dropped from the previous run. Yep. Not worried though. Mean is on the low side of 9 member tightest cluster between 6.65 and 8" Biggest reason for drop seems to be we lost 2 of the 4 10"+ members from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yep. Not worried though. Mean is on the low side of 9 member tightest cluster between 6.65 and 8" Biggest reason for drop seems to be we lost 2 of the 4 10"+ members from previous run. 12z NAM and hi-res were kind of blah while the GFS/GGEM/Euro came in pretty strong. Now that the 18z NAM has ticked up, i suspect we lose a few more low ball SREF members next time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What is it for YYZ? Thanks! Just under 5.5", which is right in the middle of the majority cluster ranging from 4.5"to 7.4". Obviously no 1" previous for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You think .75+ QPF is going to yield 2-4 inched? Well the GGEM and Euro show some rain out of that 0.75+ qpf, which is too close for comfort, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just under 5.5", which is right in the middle of the majority cluster ranging from 4.5"to 7.4". Obviously no 1" previous for YYZ. Awesome thanks. I like my 2-4" call atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Will the Canadian suite ever come south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Awesome thanks. I like my 2-4" call atm. I would be happy if that happened. Im hoping to build on the snowpack and Im worried this is going to knock me back down to 2 inches of compacted ice and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow ... it would get ugly if it rains around here!! Dirt roads are already bad but this NW trend is undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Awesome thanks. I like my 2-4" call atm. I think we'll see special weather statements by tomorrow morning and then maybe some watches for KW-Barrie-London issued tomorrow afternoon for 6 inches of wet snow. Ill be in waterloo saturday so at least I should see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still thinking 3-5" around here although I'm leaning more towards 5. Good call for racine south.. Should be a few tickles north yet too I think.. Next two events have a decent potential to tack on another 10"+ for you and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good call for racine south.. Should be a few tickles north yet too I think.. Next two events have a decent potential to tack on another 10"+ for you and south. Time to perk up buttercup. North trend is running amok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lol^. 3-5" for BowMe I think to. 4-6" for Racine south to my area. (for the one event) 42 hours GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS is juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS wetter.. DPA in the heart of the band on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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