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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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High thickness and 0C at 850mb nearby...what did you expect.

 

Decent lift/moisture in the DGZ and high precipitation rates (which may be the case with this system) can easily make up for marginal near-surface temps to improve ratios. See the 18z NAM from yesterday for example. 

 

But it was just an observation. 18z NAM as it stands now is sort of a southern outlier compared to the other models.

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messy...

 

...

FRIDAY  SNOW LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. HIGHS IN  THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.    FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW...THEN SNOW  POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING  RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. ICE  ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.  TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST WINDS  AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.   SATURDAY...NOT AS COLD. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN UNTIL MIDDAY    THEN RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST  WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE  OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.    
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Yep.  Not worried though.  Mean is on the low side of 9 member tightest cluster between 6.65 and 8" 

 

Biggest reason for drop seems to be we lost 2 of the 4 10"+ members from previous run.

 

 

12z NAM and hi-res were kind of blah while the GFS/GGEM/Euro came in pretty strong. Now that the 18z NAM has ticked up, i suspect we lose a few more low ball SREF members next time around.

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