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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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LOT holding a conference call at 3pm for Fri/Sat. 

 

 

Any guess on what they will do?  I'm thinking a watch for at least the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the cwa but wouldn't be surprised if they just blanket the entire area and possibly convert southern areas to advisories as it gets closer.

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Any guess on what they will do?  I'm thinking a watch for at least the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the cwa but wouldn't be surprised if they just blanket the entire area and possibly convert southern areas to advisories as it gets closer.

 

I'm guessing watch as well and probably all the CWA and adjust accordingly as we get closer. 

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LOT holding a conference call at 3pm for Fri/Sat. 

 

 

Any guess on what they will do?  I'm thinking a watch for at least the northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the cwa but wouldn't be surprised if they just blanket the entire area and possibly convert southern areas to advisories as it gets closer.

We're basically in the time window for watch issuance, so I don't think any of the guidance today gave any reason not have enough confidence (50%) for a watch. It's possible that the northern tier of counties may be left out if a watch is issued with everywhere south of I90 in the watch down to the Kankakee River. As far as the southern counties, those are tough because it looks like they'll see snow initially followed by mixing. Even plain rain would be a problem with cold ground temps.

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NAM is out to lunch. Euro, GGEM, GFS, etc the way to go.

 

My updated call. Less frozen/freezing for LAF, but no changes to the second part.

 

My Fri/Sat call for LAF: 0.5" of snow/mix...0.80" of rain. Top out in the low 40's on Saturday.

 

Overall jackpot snowfall locations of 6-8"...central part of the QC - north central IL - western/northern Chicago suburbs - southeast WI - southwest lower MI - southeast MI ,north of DTW. 

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We're basically in the time window for watch issuance, so I don't think any of the guidance today gave any reason not have enough confidence (50%) for a watch. It's possible that the northern tier of counties may be left out if a watch is issued with everywhere south of I90 in the watch down to the Kankakee River. As far as the southern counties, those are tough because it looks like they'll see snow initially followed by mixing. Even plain rain would be a problem with cold ground temps.

 

 

Thanks for your input as always.

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Question for the northern Illinois people who went through the icing with temps above freezing a couple weeks ago.  Did you notice any accretion on things like trees, power lines etc or was it mainly just ice on the pavement?

 

Just surfaces in contact with the ground.

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Question for the northern Illinois people who went through the icing with temps above freezing a couple weeks ago.  Did you notice any accretion on things like trees, power lines etc or was it mainly just ice on the pavement?

 

 

mainly pavement but it was really pouring during that event as well.

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Question for the northern Illinois people who went through the icing with temps above freezing a couple weeks ago.  Did you notice any accretion on things like trees, power lines etc or was it mainly just ice on the pavement?

 

just on the ground....at least for MBY ... I remember checking the trees and bushes and didn't see anything...but at that time we were up around 36 to 38 degrees...driveway, sidewalk, and street (despite residual salt) were sheets of ice

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Question for the northern Illinois people who went through the icing with temps above freezing a couple weeks ago.  Did you notice any accretion on things like trees, power lines etc or was it mainly just ice on the pavement?

 

That is what made it a deceptive and problematic issue. Rain was clearly dripping off the trees, signs, etc; so one assumed it was rain on the ground too. But it wasn't...

 

Saw about 10 accidents that afternoon in one intersection.

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