Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:21 PM, Mottster said: Your close buddy Mr. Evans going with 3-6"... Of course that was of last night though.. His amounts look good...for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Warning criteria snows for LOT on the GFS. Wonder what they decide to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:26 PM, mimillman said: Warning criteria snows for LOT on the GFS. Wonder what they decide to do. still a ways off, they could hold off until overnight but who knows if the Euro looks good, it's 0z run was kind of dry and the NAM backed off some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I suspect we may have a decent amount of precip falling as "ice" - I'm thinking around 0.5" - and less rain. But, with marginal temps and sleet potential I think should keep accretion amounts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GGEM may be a bit north. 32 line close to the south side of Chicago at 48 hours. But then, it has another different look after that. Hard to tell with the b/w's. Needless to say, it's comfortably 95% rain for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 rgem,ggem consistent, bit further NW of GFS. Just have the 12z NAM and Euro on our side as of now. I'm assuming there was partial sampling with today's 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:34 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GGEM may be a bit north. 32 line close to the south side of Chicago at 48 hours. But then, it has another different look after that. Hard to tell with the b/w's. Needless to say, it's comfortably 95% rain for LAF. gotta play to win i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:35 PM, A-L-E-K said: gotta play to win i guess Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:34 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GGEM may be a bit north. 32 line close to the south side of Chicago at 48 hours. But then, it has another different look after that. Hard to tell with the b/w's. Needless to say, it's comfortably 95% rain for LAF. We get thumped pretty good with a wintry mess on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:38 PM, Chicago WX said: Good luck! If things play out just right, we'll be looking up at the biggest of big dog records. Getting exciting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:39 PM, Hoosier said: We get thumped pretty good with a wintry mess on the back end. I'd like to see that gain more traction. Might be our best hope, in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12 GFS looks to be drier than the last couple runs for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is about as far north as mixing gets in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12Z RGEM very consistent with the rain for YYZ but that mixing line is much closer than before... could be buckling to the all snow solutions shortly for YYZ. Much more snow on this run, too. Looks pretty decent for Chicago too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 well I swung and missed on this one....which ultimately ends up meaning better snows for MBY....nice to see a fairly good consensus here finally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z UK looks pretty nice for Chicago. 0 850C line probably cuts through IKK at its northern extent. Kinda hard to tell what happens between 60 and 72 hours, but it has "hang back" look of precipitation for here with temps cooling. Maybe that's our bread and butter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 9Z SREF plume with a mean around 8 inch....with most clustered between 6 and 10 inches .... @ JOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 All in all, looking like a pretty solid event for n il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:58 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: All in all, looking like a pretty solid event for n il verbatim it will be one of the more high impact events with the bulk falling in a shorter window and not being comprised of dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I haven't even looked at the SREF plumes for LAF...not really thinking much snow here. But, just for the hell of it... 9z has a mean of 2.8". Lots of clunkers...7 of them with 4"+...and the one I can dream about that has 9.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:59 PM, A-L-E-K said: verbatim it will be one of the more high impact events with the bulk falling in a shorter window and not being comprised of dust. And add in that many rural roads have snow packed right up against the road surface, which will slow snow removal efforts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:59 PM, A-L-E-K said: verbatim it will be one of the more high impact events with the bulk falling in a shorter window and not being comprised of dust. I think we're looking at a nice paste set-up here, especially on the southside. Don't get enough of those here in the midwest. I'm going to stick with my 3-6 call for Chicagoland, with more emphasis on the 6 than the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I suspect WSW coming within the next 3-4 hours. Upgrade to WSW. Final call is 6.7" at ORD through Saturday evening - that is, if the guy measures right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 4:58 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: All in all, looking like a pretty solid event for n il +1 Suprised that the forecasted high is 24* and not closer to 30* here. Going to say 4.5" here at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 in yet another role reversal (GFS wetter than NAM) the always stingy ARW is north and wetter than the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 edit: somewhat ninja'd ^^ 12Z NMM through 12Z 01FEB with a decent precip shield still waiting to works it way through 24 hour total QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In case no one noticed - the GGEM is soaking wet. Of course that's typical, lol. @ 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Really painful top-down sounding on the GFS. The max temperature for DET below 800mb is a whopping 1*C, with about 0.8" of liquid. Talk about a huge kick in the nuts in the wake of some of our coldest weather in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 what a crusher on the GGEM, hopefully the Euro ticks up the QPF a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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