Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just for fun, but here's the 12z NAM text output for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Always hard to tell for sure, but it looks like on the b/w maps...the 12z RGEM has the freezing line straddling the IN/MI border at 48 hours...FWIW. What an irritating system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Absolute rip city in saint Charles mn right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just for fun, but here's the 12z NAM text output for LAF. Screen Shot 2014-01-30 at 10.18.18 AM.png Definitely a hair colder than before. The brief backside changeover to snow continues to show up on multiple models and could be kinda interesting for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 surface or 850? Surface. P-type map at 48 hours is all rain for Indiana...other than the far northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Absolute rip city in saint Charles mn right now nice little coma head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Surface. P-type map at 48 hours is all rain for Indiana...other than the far northern tier. yeah, just saw. RGEM has been running hot most of the winter though, no? I don't look at it often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Detroits record month is going to be put out of reach for years. Usually months with this many arctic highs don't yield so much snow either. January 2014 will define a winter in much of lower Michigan.... Heck the whole state minus Alpena and Houghton lake. +1 It sure as hell will! Though a few areas prolly won't get that top spot, top 5 should be there for most if not all. Overall W to E, I think you would have to vote this in first for the southern portion of the LP. The two areas you mention are dragging down the northern LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What an irritating system. A true PITA storm. I want the clipper pattern back. Definitely a hair colder than before. The brief backside changeover to snow continues to show up on multiple models and could be kinda interesting for a little while. Yeah, I keep seeing that...but so hard for me to buy into that happening. Seems like it's usually over-modeled. But, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 BUF jackpot instead of YYZ on the 12z nam. And how often is BUF the sweet spot for synoptic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 yeah, just saw. RGEM has been running hot most of the winter though, no? I don't look at it often. I think it usually does a fairly good job with the p-type maps. But, it's later hours are prone to change sometimes. Might be too warm right now, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Man easily over an inch an hour right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And how often is BUF the sweet spot for synoptic? hehe i still think you guys have more chance than us down here, maybe that area from St Catherines up to YYZ may cash in with this one. That midweek storm looks interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Man easily over an inch an hour right now nice...models showed your area doing well in a short burst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS gonna be a 2-5" hit for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS looks a tad north and a bit slower. Really not even close to mixing problems at DPA/ORD looking at soundings, max T about -3.5 C around 800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Fairly impressive "I think I can!!!" system on the satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS gonna be a 2-5" hit for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS gonna be a 2-5" hit for LOTThought I noticed a 6-8 swath over 24hrs...? I'll look again.EDIT: Thundersnow12 kinda has me covered up above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS looks a tad north and a bit slower. Really not even close to mixing problems at DPA/ORD looking at soundings, max T about -3.5 C around 800mb definitely slower...blows up nice late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ~1" sn, 0.1-0.2" zr/ip, the rest rain. Zipped and sealed, final call. 15-20 miles north of here should be in a solid 4-8" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thought I noticed a 6-8 swath over 24hrs...? I'll look again. EDIT: Thundersnow12 kinda has me covered up above. my timing was off...storm gets going just in time. Safely snow but mixing just close enough to make it interesting. Should see a nice period of SN during the day early Saturday if trends hold. Low heads just south of Detroit. Weird having the GFS more amped/wet than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's pretty creepy when the NAM is SE/colder while the GFS is NW/warmer. Typically, you would expect the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i thought the NAM would come north early in the run but the surface low never really got going. GFS has a pretty decent surface reflection all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ~1" sn, 0.1-0.2" zr/ip, the rest rain. Zipped and sealed, final call. 15-20 miles north of here should be in a solid 4-8" zone. You stole my earlier call for LAF. Based off the 12z GFS, that looks solid though. Way north and warm. What a cluster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be. 2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice. The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south. I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more. Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You stole my earlier call for LAF. Based off the 12z GFS, that looks solid though. Way north and warm. What a cluster... Sometimes you have to innovate, other times you simply have to take what's on the table. Your call shifted 50 miles to the north looks good for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be. 2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice. The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south. I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more. Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. Definitely looking more icy than snowy this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be. 2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice. The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south. I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more. Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. Good call right now. Any relatively subtle shifts, from the current modeling, changes things for the "better"...or the "worse". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Good call right now. Any relatively subtle shifts, from the current modeling, changes things for the "better"...or the "worse". Your close buddy Mr. Evans going with 3-6"... Of course that was of last night though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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