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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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Detroits record month is going to be put out of reach for years. Usually months with this many arctic highs don't yield so much snow either.

January 2014 will define a winter in much of lower Michigan.... Heck the whole state minus Alpena and Houghton lake.

 

+1

 

It sure as hell will! Though a few areas prolly won't get that top spot, top 5 should be there for most if not all. Overall W to E, I think you would have to vote this in first for the southern portion of the LP. The two areas you mention are dragging down the northern LP.

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What an irritating system.

 

A true PITA storm. I want the clipper pattern back. ;) 

 

Definitely a hair colder than before.  The brief backside changeover to snow continues to show up on multiple models and could be kinda interesting for a little while.

 

Yeah, I keep seeing that...but so hard for me to buy into that happening. Seems like it's usually over-modeled. But, we'll see...

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Thought I noticed a 6-8 swath over 24hrs...? I'll look again.

EDIT: Thundersnow12 kinda has me covered up above.

 

 

my timing was off...storm gets going just in time. Safely snow but mixing just close enough to make it interesting. Should see a nice period of SN during the day early Saturday if trends hold. Low heads just south of Detroit. Weird having the GFS more amped/wet than the NAM.

 

 

gfs_namer_060_precip_p24.gif

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~1" sn, 0.1-0.2" zr/ip, the rest rain. Zipped and sealed, final call. 

 

15-20 miles north of here should be in a solid 4-8" zone. 

 

You stole my earlier call for LAF. ;):D

 

Based off the 12z GFS, that looks solid though. Way north and warm. What a cluster... 

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This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be.  2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice.  The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south.  I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more.  Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. 

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This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be.  2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice.  The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south.  I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more.  Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. 

Definitely looking more icy than snowy this weekend.. 

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This is a really tough call here, mainly in terms of how much icing there will be.  2-4" of snow still looks possible with more confidence on the lower end than higher end but the big question is ice.  The NAM has better vertical resolution so you would think it would handle low level cold airmasses better but that doesn't always seem to be the case and besides that we are still seeing some differences in the main features as the NAM has a weaker surface reflection that tracks farther south.  I'd go conservative on ice amounts at this point...maybe .1 to .2 but potential exists for more.  Also I hope that mets will be stressing the potential for icy roads given the recent cold spell. 

 

Good call right now. Any relatively subtle shifts, from the current modeling, changes things for the "better"...or the "worse". 

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