Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the trends with the weekend storm continue, the description under my avatar will be affirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Even we're riding the riding the border here at this point. Need about a 10-20 mile shift to the SE. Doable? Yes, but the trend is the opposite direction (including with the 06z runs). If things continue to hold...I can tell you that DTW south WONT be the jackpot this time and WILL see mixing issues. However....a few things to note. We keep broadbrushing mixing issues...but what its going to be is it would start as several hours of snow, then mix with or even change to rain for a time, then end as snow. Temps would spike into the 30s as the L passes but quickly plunge afterward. So the most likely outcome is that unlike most of the snows this month, this will be a high water content, lower ratio snow, so we will still see an increase in our snowpack, and perhaps we can finally put a cap on this blowing and drifting! Im calling "average depth" (I use the term so loosely) 10" right now from the settling of the top layers of snow the last few days, but its very dense overall. So unless we see some horrible trend NW, our winter wonderland will still be futher deepened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the trends with the weekend storm continue, the description under my avatar will be affirmed. We normally do do nickel and diming right...but this has not been a nickel and dime winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WDIV 4 feeling bullish this morning.... said 1 inch over Friday night, 4-8 more Saturday with no mention of rain. LOL, why even listen to the local news stations? Worthless tbh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We normally do do nickel and diming right...but this has not been a nickel and dime winter. Meh, 24-48 hour grinders of 8-10" and 1-4" falling within several hours is all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Mixing might be of an issue but +FZRN will be a definite if it does. After a week of the temps we have seen a brief warm up to the 33-34 mark will only transition the materials with small density of mass. This will hold even more true on the north sides of buildings and areas in constant shade. In this case with the onset of snow to rain it will be advisable to leave the snow in place until the rain turns back to snow. Plow, salt and relax. Looks to be a fun period of time coming up. I hope there is a slight SW nudge in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still think everyone in SEMI should be clear of any significant mixing/rain, save for maybe the extreme corner. We see models windshield wipe like this all the time. Next trend will be a bit Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow the NAM wants to bring absolutely no snow south of the Maumee River, looks like a block on or something. I'm thinking NW Ohio sees 2-4" out of this through Saturday morning and then another 2-4" with mixing issues on Saturday bringing us to 4-8" but logically we should be on the lower end of this. Either way looks like 40" is going to be the bar that this month sets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There is a front that moves through ahead, and does create confluence. But as the storm moves northeast, you can see it change orientation...moving into a SW to NE oblong fashion. Thus why we see these ENE tracks in the models...especially without any phasing. That's a different animal altogether, but right now it looks like this may be pure open southern stream. I can see a frozen/freezing thump ahead of it, especially for areas that eventually warm. But expecting the models to have any clue right now, is asking a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 early guess says the NAM won't adjust SE and may go NW again EDIT: slp looks a jog north of 6z over the southern rockies, stronger at 850, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Bigger WAA push out in front, in MO, on the NAM. Tomorrow night's snow looks to miss LAF to the north. An evolving situation...but boy do these models suck with their sensible weather run-to-run changes. Kinda frustrating. Though I guess biases need to factored in, ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 These types of systems are usually ripe for overachievement in the places that do remain all snow, given the intense lift/frontogenesis forecasted. There even looks to be a period of CSI during the day Saturday. That's probably why we're seeing a bump in QPF as its time frame approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Decent WAA snows for mainly south of I-80 on the NAM initially, through 36 hours. LAF high and dry. But again, it's a different look on the NAM if you compare it to the 0z run at the same times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 lee side ejection position ends up similar...maybe a hair stronger 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Decent WAA snows for mainly south of I-80 on the NAM initially, through 36 hours. LAF high and dry. But again, it's a different look on the NAM if you compare it to the 0z run at the same times. the strenght, timing, and position of those has been terribly inconsistent across all the models. Main show later friday into saturday has been a little better lately in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like the 12z NAM may have ticked SE a bit. Music to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 4-6" hit for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM ends up being a bit more progressive, and a smidge more to the east, versus north. Better solution for the southern MI and GTA crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Verbatim, I think I'd only need to drive 30 miles north to get into 6-8" amounts on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM ends up being a bit more progressive, and a smidge more to the east, versus north. Better solution for the southern MI and GTA crew. Mixed blessing. Don't sweat the thermals but QPF's been reduced in 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ncep sure rolls out timeframes oddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Latest NAM looking like more of a hot sloppy mess here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much better NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Mixed blessing. Don't sweat the thermals but QPF's been reduced in 1/2. Given that we're still 48 hours out, and a last minute NW shift is still possible, I'm OK with the NAM's position right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 feeling pretty bullish, i'll say 4.5" IMBY with the Fri/Sat event. gonna go ahead and lock this in, final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Mixed blessing. Don't sweat the thermals but QPF's been reduced in 1/2. Yeah. I guess I was thinking more along the lines of fending off mixing for you guys. 12z NAM is truly a potpourri of stuff for LAF, again verbatim. No doubt it'll change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Always hard to tell for sure, but it looks like on the b/w maps...the 12z RGEM has the freezing line straddling the IN/MI border at 48 hours...FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 BUF jackpot instead of YYZ on the 12z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Always hard to tell for sure, but it looks like on the b/w maps...the 12z RGEM has the freezing line straddling the IN/MI border at 48 hours...FWIW. surface or 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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