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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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Even we're riding the riding the border here at this point.

 

Need about a 10-20 mile shift to the SE. Doable? Yes, but the trend is the opposite direction (including with the 06z runs).

If things continue to hold...I can tell you that DTW south WONT be the jackpot this time and WILL see mixing issues. However....a few things to note. We keep broadbrushing mixing issues...but what its going to be is it would start as several hours of snow, then mix with or even change to rain for a time, then end as snow. Temps would spike into the 30s as the L passes but quickly plunge afterward. So the most likely outcome is that unlike most of the snows this month, this will be a high water content, lower ratio  snow, so we will still see an increase in our snowpack, and perhaps we can finally put a cap on this blowing and drifting! Im calling "average depth" (I use the term so loosely) 10" right now from the settling of the top layers of snow the last few days, but its very dense overall. So unless we see some horrible trend NW, our winter wonderland will still be futher deepened.

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Mixing might be of an issue but +FZRN will be a definite if it does. After a week of the temps we have seen a brief warm up to the 33-34 mark will only transition the materials with small density of mass. This will hold even more true on the north sides of buildings and areas in constant shade. In this case with the onset of snow to rain it will be advisable to leave the snow in place until the rain turns back to snow. Plow, salt and relax.

Looks to be a fun period of time coming up. I hope there is a slight SW nudge in the forecast.

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Wow the NAM wants to bring absolutely no snow south of the Maumee River, looks like a block on or something. I'm thinking NW Ohio sees 2-4" out of this through Saturday morning and then another 2-4" with mixing issues on Saturday bringing us to 4-8" but logically we should be on the lower end of this. Either way looks like 40" is going to be the bar that this month sets

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There is a front that moves through ahead, and does create confluence. But as the storm moves northeast, you can see it change orientation...moving into a SW to NE oblong fashion. Thus why we see these ENE tracks in the models...especially without any phasing. That's a different animal altogether, but right now it looks like this may be pure open southern stream. I can see a frozen/freezing thump ahead of it, especially for areas that eventually warm. But expecting the models to have any clue right now, is asking a lot.  

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Bigger WAA push out in front, in MO, on the NAM. Tomorrow night's snow looks to miss LAF to the north. An evolving situation...but boy do these models suck with their sensible weather run-to-run changes. Kinda frustrating. Though I guess biases need to factored in, ahead of time.

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These types of systems are usually ripe for overachievement in the places that do remain all snow, given the intense lift/frontogenesis forecasted. There even looks to be a period of CSI during the day Saturday. That's probably why we're seeing a bump in QPF as its time frame approaches.

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Decent WAA snows for mainly south of I-80 on the NAM initially, through 36 hours. LAF high and dry. But again, it's a different look on the NAM if you compare it to the 0z run at the same times.   

 

 

the strenght, timing, and position of those has been terribly inconsistent across all the models. Main show later friday into saturday has been a little better lately in that department.

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Mixed blessing. Don't sweat the thermals but QPF's been reduced in 1/2.

 

Yeah. I guess I was thinking more along the lines of fending off mixing for you guys. 

 

12z NAM is truly a potpourri of stuff for LAF, again verbatim. No doubt it'll change again. :lol: 

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