Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ok, north trend can stop now. Absolutely no wiggle room at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 00z UKMET is in the southern and colder camp. Somewhat slower too. QPF looks pretty healthy in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ok, north trend can stop now. Absolutely no wiggle room at this point. Yep, lock it in. If everybody locks it in then the models can't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 00z UKMET is in the southern and colder camp. Somewhat slower too. QPF looks pretty healthy in the cold sector. And on that happy note, I shall retire for the evening. GEM may be pulling the same crap it did on Jan 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And on that happy note, I shall retire for the evening. GEM may be pulling the same crap it did on Jan 5th. Probably is, it has been notoriously shooting too far left only to correct back right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z ECMWF is coming a bit NW and possibly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was worried we'd be missing all three of the upcoming systems, but today's models have steadily improved with the saturday system. I have my fingers crossed because we have not had a 3-inch snow event since before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro shows heaviest snow amnts (6-9") N/696, mixing issues south of 696...(3-6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Of course the Euro comes in more conservative with more of a 2-4" type event. Thinking a general 3-5" event from Friday into Saturday looks pretty good for these parts. Maybe a half inch to inch tomorrow with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z ECMWF is coming a bit NW and possibly wetter. Ended up a bit juicier but track ended up near identical to 12z. I like it where it is but history so far this winter says it goes a lil bit back to the south. Which still works. Also the models have been way to quick to drop the PNA from + to - and this relates to the strength of the se ridge as a more -PNA typically means a stronger se ridge and thus storms tracking further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro shows heaviest snow amnts (6-9") N/696, mixing issues south of 696...(3-6") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 nice model trends the last 24 hours...mixing will be knocking at my door step but i'm on the far northside and the lake is too cold to really do much damage, so i'm leaning all snow here. LOT dropping significant/warning criteria wording in their latest afd in respect to amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 nice model trends the last 24 hours...mixing will be knocking at my door step but i'm on the far northside and the lake is too cold to really do much damage, so i'm leaning all snow here. Not looking bad. I sort of fell asleep on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rain/Snow mix line creeing up to near DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not looking bad. I sort of fell asleep on this one. SREF mean up to 7.5"+ at ORD...still a couple clunkers but the best cluster is from 7-10", plus a couple big dogs. Should def be plowable, especially since it won't be that step on it and it vanishes dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rain/Snow mix line creeing up to near DTW.Yea. The trends this winter as harry stated have been to come a bit south withing 48 hours so hopefully the precip issues stay south. You're definitely sitting pretty a bit further west. Afraid warm tongue might sneak in east of 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Guess it's time to punt the next 3 days down here in the jungle. Maybe a stat padding 2-3" spread out from tonight through Saturday night, with some rain and slop thrown in for good measure. Looks like ORD/DTW are once again in line for any appreciable accumulations, as has been the case most of the winter. Toronto might get a little love too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 WDIV 4 feeling bullish this morning.... said 1 inch over Friday night, 4-8 more Saturday with no mention of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm pretty much in the sweet spot right now, but I'm also hoping for no more shifting.... I could be fine with a bit of a south shift on the gfs, but not on the NAM. The NAM has a nasty cutoff and anymore south and I could be looking at pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 complex looking decent in IA/MN...even a mini waa wing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice. Could use a tap south just to create a buffer zone. Zero room for breathing verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like more ticks north from the models last night/overnight. No surprise. Maybe a few more moves north left to go. It does make this less of a wintry storm for LAF...and more of an eventual cold rainer. But, I think we'll get some front-end frozen/freezing action before surface temps shoot comfortably above freezing. And I don't buy any back-end switch back to wintry precip, as that very rarely works out. My Fri/Sat call for LAF: 1.0" of snow...0.15" of ice...0.50" of rain. Top out in the low 40's on Saturday. Overall jackpot snowfall locations of 6-8"...central part of the QC - north central IL - western/northern Chicago suburbs - southeast WI - southwest lower MI - mainly north of DTW in southeast MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 just browsing the models on the way to work and the 850 low actually passes over or west of ORD on the gfs...far from ideal but it works. more adjustments north likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ended up a bit juicier but track ended up near identical to 12z. I like it where it is but history so far this winter says it goes a lil bit back to the south. Which still works. Also the models have been way to quick to drop the PNA from + to - and this relates to the strength of the se ridge as a more -PNA typically means a stronger se ridge and thus storms tracking further nw. If you look at the raw numbers. The real value for the PNA today is .096. So we're at neutral now. 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 yeah, it's pretty obvious that the +PNA has been beaten down in we're mid drop into - territory...further adjustments NW with both systems likely...hopefully nothing huge with this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Guess it's time to punt the next 3 days down here in the jungle. Maybe a stat padding 2-3" spread out from tonight through Saturday night, with some rain and slop thrown in for good measure. Looks like ORD/DTW are once again in line for any appreciable accumulations, as has been the case most of the winter. Toronto might get a little love too. Slop...yuck. I'm punting as well. But hey...next week looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Guess it's time to punt the next 3 days down here in the jungle. Maybe a stat padding 2-3" spread out from tonight through Saturday night, with some rain and slop thrown in for good measure. Looks like ORD/DTW are once again in line for any appreciable accumulations, as has been the case most of the winter. Toronto might get a little love too. Even we're riding the riding the border here at this point. Need about a 10-20 mile shift to the SE. Doable? Yes, but the trend is the opposite direction (including with the 06z runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Forecasting storms based on indices is a little tricky. There's a response to individual storms. You can look back at past storms and see this in action. But, the overall regime has certainly changed...but that isn't news to anyone. Note again, the GEFS have been too low with the prediction of the PNA...but they are more reactive than proactive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Forecasting storms based on indices is a little tricky. There's a response to individual storms. You can look back at past storms and see this in action. But, the overall regime has certainly changed...but that isn't news to anyone. Note again, the GEFS have been too low with the prediction of the PNA...but they are more reactive than proactive. good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.