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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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ul s/w shearing out. stringy, open wave at 850/700. Modest sfc development. Not a huge candidate for over-performing WAA. But just the spatial positioning of all those features a little further to the north could be enough to throw a crimp into our game.

 

I'll stick with my 2-4" prelim. call but if that's what the NAM looks like on Friday night, amounts are obviously going to have to be boosted some.

 

Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha. 

 

2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first.

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Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha. 

 

2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first.

 

Just checked BUFKIT. Column safely below freezing throughout the event. Almost 11" of snow. lol.

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Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha.

2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first.

Really tough to make a call at this point. Suspect the NAM is too wet regarding QPF... but the 18z GFS had a similar idea. Gradient is going to be tight between the heavy snows and a slop/sleet mix.
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Never doubt the Wyandotte effect, the NAM has it built in.

 

In all seriousness though, the NAM does look pretty solid and the models have pretty much locked in on this swath for the last day and a half. I figure it might waver a little bit but what you see right now within 50 miles looks probably correct.

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Just checked BUFKIT. Column safely below freezing throughout the event. Almost 11" of snow. lol.

 

Wow, awesome! :D

 

Really tough to make a call at this point. Suspect the NAM is too wet regarding QPF... but the 18z GFS had a similar idea. Gradient is going to be tight between the heavy snows and a slop/sleet mix.

 

The Nam wouldn't be the Nam if it didn't have a "juicy" run or two,  :lol:

 

Its a tight gradient but with so much cold air surrounding the region and the storm itself, I wouldnt be surprised if we can work in some CAD. Still 60-70 hours out but lets hope we can waver in some consistency. 

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Detroits record month is going to be put out of reach for years. Usually months with this many arctic highs don't yield so much snow either.

January 2014 will define a winter in much of lower Michigan.... Heck the whole state minus Alpena and Houghton lake.

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Well the GFS paints 0.4" qpf across far SE WI, soundings show a 100mb DGZ up near 600mb and while winds will be light this wont be the fluff we've seen recently. Ratios look to be around 13:1 so an early guess would be 3-5" around here. Anyways this storm will probably over perform since I'll be in the Atl.

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