Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z NAM - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ul s/w shearing out. stringy, open wave at 850/700. Modest sfc development. Not a huge candidate for over-performing WAA. But just the spatial positioning of all those features a little further to the north could be enough to throw a crimp into our game. I'll stick with my 2-4" prelim. call but if that's what the NAM looks like on Friday night, amounts are obviously going to have to be boosted some. Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha. 2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha. 2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first. Just checked BUFKIT. Column safely below freezing throughout the event. Almost 11" of snow. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes I agree. However, with the PV just by our door-step, I wouldn't be surprised if we work in some CAD keeping lower thermals and SFC temperatures cold enough for frozen precip. Its a waiting game, haha. 2-4" is my preliminary call as well. I rather see some consistency first. Really tough to make a call at this point. Suspect the NAM is too wet regarding QPF... but the 18z GFS had a similar idea. Gradient is going to be tight between the heavy snows and a slop/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Never doubt the Wyandotte effect, the NAM has it built in. In all seriousness though, the NAM does look pretty solid and the models have pretty much locked in on this swath for the last day and a half. I figure it might waver a little bit but what you see right now within 50 miles looks probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Damn nam is really juiced Thats what she sai........ Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 FWIW, Skilling just painted a 5-7" swath from Chicago westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just checked BUFKIT. Column safely below freezing throughout the event. Almost 11" of snow. lol. Wow, awesome! Really tough to make a call at this point. Suspect the NAM is too wet regarding QPF... but the 18z GFS had a similar idea. Gradient is going to be tight between the heavy snows and a slop/sleet mix. The Nam wouldn't be the Nam if it didn't have a "juicy" run or two, . Its a tight gradient but with so much cold air surrounding the region and the storm itself, I wouldnt be surprised if we can work in some CAD. Still 60-70 hours out but lets hope we can waver in some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 we had 38 degrees and freezing rain on the secondary roads a few weeks ago on that Friday nite. Never seen that before. Yeah that was wild. It was damn near 40F that Saturday and there was still ice on the streets. The cold temps we have and the impact it has on surface temps cannot be underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 most of the time I would normally like where I sit this far out but naso much this yr for sure.. I'd be happy with the NAM and other models to join it to refresh snowmobile trails with a few inches in se wi and those with record snows can work their way up the ranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Early guess is the GFS is coming north for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Early guess is the GFS is coming north for Saturday Yep...North and wetter...So far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Reelin' this one in like a big fish. Lock this one in boys. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 gfs alek crusher .50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Frontal/advection snows are further north as well, really nice for Cycloneville on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Would be another interesting setup for LOT with regards to headlines do to long duration but I-88 corridor gets 6-8" Fri/Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Interesting to see the GFS further north at this point than the NAM. Looks to be a nail biter here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS would indicate 6-8" here between tomorrow's wave and the Fri/Sat one. Would easily be the heaviest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Track is kind of ugly on the GFS for YYZ but thermals still remain supportive of all/mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Detroits record month is going to be put out of reach for years. Usually months with this many arctic highs don't yield so much snow either. January 2014 will define a winter in much of lower Michigan.... Heck the whole state minus Alpena and Houghton lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Weekend wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'll go with a first call of 1-3" of snow, the rest being a mix of zr/pl/ra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well the GFS paints 0.4" qpf across far SE WI, soundings show a 100mb DGZ up near 600mb and while winds will be light this wont be the fluff we've seen recently. Ratios look to be around 13:1 so an early guess would be 3-5" around here. Anyways this storm will probably over perform since I'll be in the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GGEM fairly consistent by the looks of it. Mixing concerns all the way toward Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Way too close for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Way too close for comfort GEM looks like it'll turn us over to rain. Still a bit of a front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Becoming a close call for Chicago on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Becoming a close call for Chicago on the GGEM. Eh I'm not too worried. Closer to the sweet spot than we are mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks to be true^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I-88 to I-80 corridor in Illinois looks pretty sweet right now. Farther east is more tricky with high bust potential on snow amounts in places like northern Indiana/southern Michigan depending on how much of a warm air surge takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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