Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Happy plowing..... Running out of salt in your area yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You don't want detroit to put up a kiss of death wsw anyways lol.. This yr se mi can do no wrong so I don't see a wsw jinx coming in to play anyways. lol. Still laughing that they put up a WWA for blowing snow literally right after it snowed 3-4 inches with the last arctic front. We do seem to do better when DTX is conservative vs them being bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z NAM looks less impressive with the Thursday night/early Friday snows here (not that it was impressive to begin with). Actually no qpf for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 weaker at 850/500/700...should be south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Must be some super amped sref members for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Must be some super amped sref members for wave 2 mean of ~6 at ORD with a ceiling of 12" and floor of 1" (1" taint thurs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 mean of ~6 at ORD with a ceiling of 12" and floor of 1" (1" taint thurs) Nice uptick last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z NAM going to be another good run for that same general corridor in IL/IN/MI/OH. Edit: maybe even wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 weaker at 850/500/700...should be south Coming in a bit NW of 18z. Edit: Ends up about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Damn nam is really juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Unsettling qpf numbers being shown as ice on this run for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 About .65" liquid for my backyard. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Damn nam is really juiced Yup. Mixing issues still too close for comfort though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Unsettling qpf numbers being shown as ice on this run for mby. Looks like LAF starts out and ends as snow with the mixed bag in between. BTW, these are CoD's new fcst soundings and we also have hodographs now (with storm motion plotted) but with soundings they have a new look overall and in the convection season you can adjust parcel trajectories (SBCAPE/MLCAPE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Unsettling qpf numbers being shown as ice on this run for mby. Certainly don't want that but tis the season for greatest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Certainly don't want that but tis the season for greatest concern. One positive for less icing is that 2m temps become borderline but the lingering cold surfaces/objects makes it tougher to figure out how much accretion there would be in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM's almost certainly too wet with that 1"+ swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 1000/500mb thickness line is too close for comfort in our region wrt mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Unsettling qpf numbers being shown as ice on this run for mby.NAM QPF. Slice and dice it a bit.All about the ice potential for us now. But it looks like 2m temps are getting warmer with each run. Snow is pretty much dead...other than a little to start with, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM's almost certainly too wet with that 1"+ swath. Nice run for the GTA but i still think the models are overplaying the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 About .65" liquid for my backyard. I'll take it. namFLT_sfc_precacc_078.gif Is that the whole event? Looks like 1-1.25 qpf for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM model showing 8-11" damn! Edit: and it's still going beyond 84hr Edit again: no it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One positive for less icing is that 2m temps become borderline but the lingering cold surfaces/objects makes it tougher to figure out how much accretion there would be in this scenario. we had 38 degrees and freezing rain on the secondary roads a few weeks ago on that Friday nite. Never seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'd feel a little better if mixing was a bit further south for wiggle room of subtle north ticks. With the intense rates, maybe dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We've seen WAA surprise us all with its intensity and northward progression at times this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow that's a lot of QPF. No way that verifies but if we could get rid of the mixing issue potential I would feel really good about this regardless if we ended up on the northern fringe or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM QPF. Slice and dice it a bit. All about the ice potential for us now. But it looks like 2m temps are getting warmer with each run. Snow is pretty much dead...other than a little to start with, if that. killjoy NAM gives us about 2" on the front end with nothing tomorrow night/early Friday. I still think 2-4" is in play assuming the NAM isn't correct on tomorrow night/early Friday being totally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 killjoy NAM gives us about 2" on the front end with nothing tomorrow night/early Friday. I still think 2-4" is in play assuming the NAM isn't correct on tomorrow night/early Friday being totally dry. I only do that if it's not all snow. For real though, we know the drill with the NAM. But I guess we'll see what the other models have to say. Maybe they'll also get wetter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Nice run for the GTA but i still think the models are overplaying the WAA. ul s/w shearing out. stringy, open wave at 850/700. Modest sfc development. Not a huge candidate for over-performing WAA. But just the spatial positioning of all those features a little further to the north could be enough to throw a crimp into our game. I'll stick with my 2-4" prelim. call but if that's what the NAM looks like on Friday night, amounts are obviously going to have to be boosted some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.