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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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Yeah, I wondered that too after another look at the soundings. The warm layer gets quite deep at times though, even if not very torchy.

 

 

Looks like the warm layer is about 150-175 mb thick for a while so even if max warm layer temps are borderline for complete melting, that depth might do it...if it's right.   

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Interesting that the models seem to be ticking back to the earlier northern solutions. Outside one run, the GGEM has seemed to be the only one that didn't waver. A rare possible win for it. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't some more northern corrections as we get closer. These types of systems can be sneaky.

 

All in all, my general IL/IN call would be little frozen and less freezing for LAF than currently modeled...mixing getting to or a bit north of I-80 (guarantee in IN, but possible in IL too)...and the best snow amounts along and north of I-80 (more so for IL).    

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Interesting that the models seem to be ticking back to the earlier northern solutions. Outside one run, the GGEM has seemed to be the only one that didn't waver. A rare possible win for it. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't some more northern corrections as we get closer. These types of systems can be sneaky.

 

All in all, my general IL/IN call would be little frozen and less freezing for LAF than currently modeled...mixing getting to or a bit north of I-80 (guarantee in IN, but possible in IL too)...and the best snow amounts along and north of I-80 (more so for IL).    

 

 

GGEM gets a lot of hate but there's no reason not to look at it...it's not that much worse of a model within 4 or 5 days.

 

Complicating factor for us is the cold ground.  I could see us having icing problems and by the time the ground warms enough, temps start falling. 

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GGEM gets a lot of hate but there's no reason not to look at it...it's not that much worse of a model within 4 or 5 days.

 

Complicating factor for us is the cold ground.  I could see us having icing problems and by the time the ground warms enough, temps start falling. 

 

Yeah, ground is cold. That is definitely something to watch, even as temps warm above freezing here. Seen that happen before. 

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if models stay consistent, WSW worthy say friday? I see GGEM still has rain for us after the frontal..

 

Not saying it won't be correct, but the GGEM is sort of an outlier right now. Just about every other model has mostly/all snow for us.

 

As far as WSW worthiness, seems borderline right now. 

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