wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 MKE snow dome in action. Interesting username, I assume you live in Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GFS is weaker and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GFS is weaker and south. Broke it up into two waves now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Broke it up into two waves now as well. And add a 4th wave before the main event potential on the 3-5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GFS is weaker and south. Best run yet for WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM still has a well developed wave tracking toward SBN at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS through the weekend. 0zGFS_012914.jpg Still manages to pull 6" out here even with that multiple wave crap. going to be a pain to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thursday/Friday Arctic Front snow totals 2/1/14 storm snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z ECMWF coming in significantly different during this period, compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z ECMWF coming in significantly different during this period, compared to the 12z. Looks like it's given up on the idea of a wave tracking toward the Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro continues to look very lame for this area. 1-2" starting to look like the way to go for much of this area. GFS and other models all over the place as well, so confidence in any solution pretty low, which is pretty damn sad considering the event is only a few days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like it's given up on the idea of a wave tracking toward the Lakes? It instead focuses on a 3rd wave about a day later, Sat/Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro is a decent event along and south of I-80, especially in Indiana and points east. But yeah, consistency FTL. Amazingly enough, GGEM has been most consistent, not that that means much. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah not liking tonights runs at all for stat padding or a big one. sick to think about how many hrs I waste to this sickness each winter.. I wouldn't call it a waste but to many it kinna is and they're right I suppose - heh. What fun would it be though if model's were able to diagnose things a lot clearer.. I hate roller coasters but still ride them in winter and summer. at least I only found these those with the wx sickness boards about 7 yrs ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro is a decent event along and south of I-80, especially in Indiana and points east. But yeah, consistency FTL. Amazingly enough, GGEM has been most consistent, not that that means much. Sent from my SCH-I535 stunned lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Eh. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things. FWIW, DTX was also very confident that we were getting an severe ice storm with the President Day 2011 storm, even after the snow began falling. That one was awesome. 9-12" of heavy wet snow with lots of thunder/lightning. I dread to think what that being ice would've done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Clearly, the models are struggling with a changing pattern which is the reason for such model mayhem(chaos). Far be it for me, to gauge what it all means as you guys are the experts. ###fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 ^^. Syntactical chaos, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This has turned into quite the cluster, on the models. Pulling for the 6z NAM IMBY though, as it has 6-8" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This has turned into quite the cluster, on the models. Pulling for the 6z NAM IMBY though, as it has 6-8" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol, go IWX WRF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lol NAM over .3 QPF for wave 1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol, go IWX WRF! IWX AFD points to a possibility: FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS CONVOLUTED. MODELS AGREE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT DIFFER REGARDING EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF BURGEONING SURFACE LOW. THIS HAS IMPACTS ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF QPF AS WELL AS PRECIP TYPES. SOURCE OF CONSTERNATION IS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE(S) SET TO CRASH ONSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT IN SOME FASHION WITH SECOND PV ANOMALY DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. STILL FAVOR A PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF THIS PACIFIC ENERGY GIVEN SHEARING UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONFIGURATION...SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSAGE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS AND 28.12Z ECMWF. DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY WARRANTS CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS SCENARIO RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW BUT A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW/MIDLEVEL FGEN IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS 150+ KT JET AND THE ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE HEAVIEST SNOW DEVELOPS IN OUR CWA AS THE GEM AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS. FOR NOW PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND OLD EUROPEAN RUN WITH GENERAL 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATION BUT AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP FURTHER NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW UNTIL PARENT WAVES/JET STREAKS ARE BETTER SAMPLED BY NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol, go IWX WRF! I'm actually somewhat optimistic about a moderate snow here over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm actually somewhat optimistic about a moderate snow here over the weekend. It's looking a little more interesting. Still expect a mixed bag, if not rain for a time, for LAF. But, it may be a "stay tuned" type of situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z HAM going to be a bit more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 And 6 hours later, the NAM dashes my dreams. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 SREF mean up to 4" for ORD...looks like a low end advisory for I80 and environs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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