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January 30-February 2nd Wave Train


Chicago Storm

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Yeah not liking tonights runs at all for stat padding or a big one.

 

sick to think about how many hrs I waste to this sickness each winter.. I wouldn't call it a waste but to many it kinna is and they're right I suppose - heh. 

 

What fun would it be though if model's were able to diagnose things a lot  clearer..  I hate roller coasters but still ride them in winter and summer. at least I only found these those with the wx sickness boards about 7 yrs ago.. 

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Eh. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

 

FWIW, DTX was also very confident that we were getting an severe ice storm with the President Day 2011 storm, even after the snow began falling.

That one was awesome. 9-12" of heavy wet snow with lots of thunder/lightning. I dread to think what that being ice would've done.
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lol, go IWX WRF! 

IWX AFD points to a possibility:

FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS CONVOLUTED. MODELS AGREE  THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT  DIFFER REGARDING EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF BURGEONING SURFACE  LOW. THIS HAS IMPACTS ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF QPF AS WELL AS  PRECIP TYPES. SOURCE OF CONSTERNATION IS PACIFIC SHORTWAVE(S) SET  TO CRASH ONSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT IN  SOME FASHION WITH SECOND PV ANOMALY DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN  CANADA. STILL FAVOR A PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF THIS PACIFIC ENERGY  GIVEN SHEARING UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONFIGURATION...SUPPORTING A WEAK  SURFACE LOW PASSAGE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS SUGGESTED BY THE  LATEST GFS AND 28.12Z ECMWF. DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH...IF  ANY...PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY  WARRANTS CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE ON  SATURDAY AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. THERMAL  PROFILES IN THIS SCENARIO RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW BUT A MIX OF  SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHARP INCREASE  IN LOW/MIDLEVEL FGEN IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO  SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE  EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS 150+ KT JET AND THE  ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THE  HEAVIEST SNOW DEVELOPS IN OUR CWA AS THE GEM AND 00Z ECMWF  SUGGEST OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS. FOR  NOW PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND OLD EUROPEAN RUN WITH  GENERAL 3-5 INCH ACCUMULATION BUT AMOUNTS OF 5-8 INCHES MAY BE  POSSIBLE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP FURTHER  NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS CLOSELY BUT  CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW UNTIL PARENT WAVES/JET STREAKS  ARE BETTER SAMPLED BY NOAM UPPER AIR NETWORK. DRY/COLD CONDITIONS  WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW  AND CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO THE REGION. 
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