RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the next 72 hours are quiet for LOT, while we freeze and dry out. A couple of weeks back, going from -15 to 20 felt seriously warm. Walking around w/o hat or gloves and you were sweating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Heck of a baroclinic zone in the Plains at 96 hours on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:17 PM, Hoosier said: Heck of a baroclinic zone in the Plains at 96 hours on the Euro. smells like wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:18 PM, A-L-E-K said: smells like wagons north Looks like wagons of snow for you. Making an educated guess of what happens between hour 96 and 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z Euro is a bit slower. Surface low is in the IN/OH area at 120 hours whereas the 00z run had it east of Detroit at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:22 PM, Chicago WX said: Looks like wagons of snow lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:22 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is a bit slower. Surface low is in the IN/OH area at 120 hours whereas the 00z run had it east of Detroit at 132. Looks that way. Good enough 850 temp gradient at 120 hours. +5C here...and -5C cutting through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 sounds like a decent moderate hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Pretty impressive storm on the Euro, however at hour 120, looks like mixing issues across S/E Michigan, even some plain rain..At hour 126, this thing really intensifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:18 PM, A-L-E-K said: smells like wagons north Elongated 1000mb low over Indy 12z Saturday but between advection snows early on and the decent defo band, it's solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:35 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Elongated 1000mb low over Indy 12z Saturday but between advection snows early on and the decent defo band, it's solid. the baroclinic zone and baby SE ridge has me leaning pretty hard towards more amplified models at this stage...especially if we see a slowing trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:31 PM, Ajdos said: Pretty impressive storm on the Euro, however at hour 120, looks like mixing issues across S/E Michigan, even some plain rain..At hour 126, this thing really intensifies.... Looks like a 4-8" event north of I-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 About .55" liquid for DPA/ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:36 PM, A-L-E-K said: the baroclinic zone and baby SE ridge has me leaning pretty hard towards more amplified models at this stage...especially if we see a slowing trend. The fact that the PNA should be leaning negative by the end of the week and certainly the weekend doesn't hurt that speculation. I am leaning towards another near-miss and nice Chicago hit on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z Euro gets mixing up to the south side of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:50 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro gets mixing up to the south side of Chicago. 0z showed the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:52 PM, Chicago Storm said: 0z showed the same. 850 mb line seemed a tad farther south on the 00z run but that's based on the Wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:50 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro gets mixing up to the south side of Chicago. yep, all non-zzzz solutions get real close for MBY (including the better GEFS members)...gonna be riding the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:53 PM, A-L-E-K said: yep, all non-zzzz solutions get real close for MBY (including the better GEFS members)...gonna be riding the edge. As JB would say, if you want to get the best snow you have to smell the rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:50 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro gets mixing up to the south side of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The differences wrt shortwave handling on the backside of that trough are pretty substantial. GFS in particular handles the energy completely differently than the GGEM/ECMWF do at this point. Probably will end up with something in the middle meaning MDW to DTW get the best snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 114 is the time the EURO gets the mixing up into NW IN or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That second storm looks epic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GEM precip as snow First orange is about 1" of liquid, red is about 1.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think we're going to have some issues here even if the more amped solutions verify. 2 days of moderating temps is not enough to efficiently warm cold surfaces and would expect something similar (icing with 2m temps well above freezing) to what happened farther north a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 7:16 PM, Hoosier said: I think we're going to have some issues here even if the more amped solutions verify. 2 days of moderating temps is not enough to efficiently warm cold surfaces and would expect something similar (icing with 2m temps well above freezing) to what happened farther north a couple weeks ago. i mentioned the same thing in the med range thread earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I guess nearly all 12Z guidance says I was an idiot for thinking the baro zone will set up further south and keep the "waves" progressive and south (for this thread's systems).... should I claim horrible call now? or wait for another few runs of guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 7:25 PM, Gilbertfly said: I guess nearly all 12Z guidance says I was an idiot for thinking the baro zone will set up further south and keep the "waves" progressive and south (for this thread's systems).... should I claim horrible call now? or wait for another few runs of guidance? Hey, you have the GFS on your side but hard to think it won't start baby stepping north sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 6:39 PM, Thundersnow12 said: About .55" liquid for DPA/ORD so far this year I have had to get gas for the blower 3 times. Last year I went twice for the whole year, and January isnt over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On 1/27/2014 at 7:25 PM, Gilbertfly said: I guess nearly all 12Z guidance says I was an idiot for thinking the baro zone will set up further south and keep the "waves" progressive and south (for this thread's systems).... should I claim horrible call now? or wait for another few runs of guidance? Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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