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February2014 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Time to out-guess the famous rodent (I don't mean your host, or do I?) with an outlook for the shortest month. C'mon, the GFS almost covers the whole thing!

 

For that reason, despite a (Super Bowl) weekend start, I will have to go with standard late penalties as more advantage is gained from late entries in a 28-day month (in theory, anyway). Those late penalties begin at 0605z on  and amount to 1% per hour late.

 

As always, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (tenths) for these six contest locations, and if you want to participate in the new optional western contest, add three more for good measure:

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Good luck and welcome if you're new. January results will be posted in that thread with some provisional scoring to appear in the next few days.

 

Note on scoring: When anomalies are less than 5.0 in either direction, scoring is basically 100 minus 2 times your error in tenths for each station. When anomalies are greater than 5.0, this error factor reduces on a sliding scale. If your forecast has the correct anomaly sign it will always score some points. And you'll find fairly generous scores for forecasts that might not score much under the regular system. Hypothetically, if an anomaly of 10.0 is realized, the scores for correct sign forecasts would be the forecasts themselves times 10. For 9.0, the gradations would average 1.1, etc. So, if Chicago does come in far below normal as expected in January, forecasts between -3 and -5 will score reasonably well.

 

 

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Mallow

Mallow

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DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

-0.1  _____-1.2 _____-1.0 ___ -3.8 ____+1.1  ____-0.2 ________-3.7  _____+1.5 _____-0.4

 

 

New numbers...

 

 

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

 

+0.9  _____-0.2 _____-0.2 ___ -3.8 ____+1.9  ____-0.4 ________-3.4  _____+1.7 _____-0.7

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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February 2014 contest entries

__________________________________

 

 

Forecaster ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith __________+1.8 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ --4.5 _ +2.4 _ +0.8 ________ --2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.4

metallicwx366 ________ +1.8 _ +1.4 _ +1.5 ___ --4.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 _______ --0.9 _ +1.1 _ --1.0

CSheridan12 _________ +1.5 _ +1.1 _ +2.4 ___ --1.2 _ --0.6 _ +1.1 ________ +1.2 _ +4.0 _ +3.4

Isotherm ____________ +1.3 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ --3.7 _ +1.7 __ 0.0 ________ --2.4 _ +0.9 _ --1.5

SD _________________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0 ________ +2.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.5

Mallow ______________ +0.9 _ --0.2 _ --0.2 ___ --3.8 _ +1.9 _ --0.4 ________ --3.4 _ +1.7 _ --0.7

Tenman Johnson ______ +0.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ --2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.3

RodneyS _____________+0.5 _ --0.4 _ --0.4 ___ --4.1 _ +4.2 _ --0.8 ________ --3.0 _ --2.8 _ --4.4

wxdude64 ____________+0.5 _ --0.6 _ --0.7 ___ --4.1 _ +3.1 _ --0.5 ________ --2.6 _ --2.2 _ --2.2

 

Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

uncle W ______________ 0.0 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 ____ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.5
goobagooba __________ 0.0 _ --2.0 _ --2.1 ____ --5.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _________ --1.5 _+2.0 __ 0.0

bkviking __ (-4%) _____ --0.2 _ --0.6 _ --0.2 ___ --1.7 _ --0.6 _ +1.5 _________ +1.2 _ +3.2 _ +0.4

 

Consensus ___________ --0.2 _ --0.8 _ --1.0 ___ --3.4 _ +1.3 __ 0.0 _________ --1.0 _ +1.1 _ --0.5  

 

hudsonvalley21 _______ --0.2 _--0.8 _ --1.1 ____ --2.0 _ +1.3 _ --0.3 _________ --0.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.6

Tom ________________ --0.2 _ --0.9 _ --0.8 ____ --2.9 _ +0.8 _ +1.1 ________ +1.2 _ +1.8 _ +0.8

OHweather ___________--0.3 _ --1.0 _ --1.3 ____ --3.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.3 ________ --1.0 __ 0.0 _ --2.0

donsutherland.1 _______ --0.5 _ --1.5 _ --2.0 ___ --3.5 _ +0.7 __+0.2 _________+0.3 _+1.8 _ --0.1

TropicalAnalystwx13 ____--0.6 _ --0.9 _ --1.5 ____ --2.7 _+1.3 _+0.3 _________--2.2 _--1.7 _ --1.6

Chicago Storm __(-40%)_--0.7 _ --1.0 _ --1.0 ____ --2.0 _ +1.0 _+0.3 ________ --0.1 _ +0.1 _ --2.0

blazess556 ___________ --0.9 _ --1.3 _ --1.7 ____ --3.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.7 _______ --1.4 _ +1.1 _ --2.2

cpick79 ______________ --0.9 _ --1.3 _ --2.0 ____ --3.4 _ +1.4 _ +1.0

stebo ________________ --1.0 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ____ --3.2 _ +0.7 _ --0.6 _______ --1.9 _ --1.9 _ --2.6

ksammut _____________ --1.7 _ --1.9 _ --1.7 ____ --4.6 _ +0.8 _ --1.4 _______ --2.5 _ --1.9 _ --2.3

Damage in Tolland _____ --1.7 _ --1.9 _ --2.0 ____ --3.9 _ +1.3 _ +0.7 ________ +0.2 _ +1.9 _ +1.0

Midlo Snow Maker ______--2.5 _ --2.2 _ --2.0 ____ --3.5 _ --2.0 _ --2.8 ________ --0.5 _ +3.0 _ --1.7

 

________________________________________________

 

WELCOME new entrants and good luck to everyone. Consensus may shift with later entries.  

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Here's our first instalment of the February tracking of daily anomalies:

 

after n days ___ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

6 ___________ +2.8 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___--11.1 _ +1.1 _--5.6 ____--26.7 _--2.6 _--9.2  

7 ___________ +2.1 _ +0.4 _ +1.4 ___--12.6 _ +0.5 _--7.4 ___ --25.2 _--2.1 _--9.6

8 ___________ +1.2 _ --0.8 _ +0.4 ___--12.9 _ +0.2 _--7.4 ___ --21.8 _--1.6 _--9.2

9 ___________ +0.5 _ --1.6 _ --0.3 ___--13.1 _ +0.6 _--6.4 ___ --20.8 _--0.9 _--9.1

10___________--0.4 _ --1.6 _ --0.9 ___--14.0 _ +0.5 _--6.4 ___ --19.4 _--0.2 _--8.2

11___________--1.2 _ --3.3 _ --1.8 ___--14.8 _ --0.3 _--7.4 ___ --17.7 _+0.3 _--7.0

 

... will start a new post on Friday so we keep our thread on page one ...

 

At the rate things are going, some people might actually score some points for DEN and SEA now :)

 

Here's how the extreme anomalies are scored: from 5.1 to 10.0 (pos or neg) the points are deducted at the rate of 1 per 0.1 error for as many intervals as necessary to equalize 1 point intervals at either end and maintain 2 point intervals in the middle. Example, at 7.0 the normal 2 pt range is 2.0 to 5.0 (and , the 1 pt ranges are 5.1 to 7.0 (and 7.1 to 9.0) and 0.1 to 1.9. Once we reach 10.0 it's simply one point per 0.1 error. We haven't had to score a larger anomaly except I think March 2012 at one station, where I just ignored the larger range and scored as if the anomaly was 10.0. However we should have a more case-specific rule, so anomalies greater than 10.0 will go this way: assuming no forecast above 10.0, all scores calculated as if anomaly was 10.0, then reduced by fraction derived from (10.0) / (Actual anomaly) ... example, best forecast -8.0 for actual of 12.0, scores 80 then reduced by 10/12 or 5/6 to 66.7 or 67. Forecast of 3.0 scores 30 x 5/6 or 25. Etc etc. Anyone who happens to go beyond one of these anomalies scored on the same basis. Example, forecast -15 for actual -12 scores 70 then reduced to 58.

 

We may need this rule for Denver if they don't recover to a value below -10. I think they might looking at model output, but sooner or later we will need the rule. This way, you always score something for the right anomaly sign unless you go worse than double the big anomaly.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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(posted on 12th and edited on 18th) Continuing the anomaly tracker with our first look at the provisional monthly anomalies ... the eastern stations and ORD will push up about 2 deg then fall back to near where they were around 18th (based on NWS d1-7 and GFS/ECM d8-10 showing large neg anoms 26th-28th ... ATL and IAH will see a larger recovery d1-7 that will not be cut back quite as much near the end ... the western stations are likely to drift upward but DEN has probably ended its period of rapid increases now. SEA looks to end with a late sprint, PHX loses the record warmth but stays mostly above normal.

 

(24th) will continue to post this until final anomalies are reached on Friday 28th.

 

 

after n days ___ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

12___________--2.2 _ --4.4 _ --3.0  ___--15.0 _ --1.5 _--7.9 ___ --16.0 _+0.7 _--5.8

13___________--2.4 _ --4.4 _ --2.9  ___--14.3 _ --2.1 _--8.1 ___ --13.7 _+1.3 _--4.8

14___________--2.0 _ --4.1 _ --2.6  ___--14.0 _ --2.2 _--7.3 ___ --12.3 _+1.9 _--4.1

15___________--2.1 _ --4.0 _ --2.5  ___--14.0 _ --2.5 _--6.9 ___ --10.8 _+2.4 _--3.6

16___________--2.3 _ --4.3 _ --2.6 ___ --13.5 _ --2.3 _--6.1 ___  -- 9.2 _+2.8 _--3.3

17___________--2.6 _ --4.7 _ --3.1 ___ --12.8 _ --1.9 _--4.9 ___  -- 8.0 _+3.4 _--3.1

18___________--2.3 _ --4.7 _ --3.3 ___ --11.9 _ --1.3 _--3.7 ___  -- 6.8 _+3.8 _--2.9

19___________--1.7 _ --4.2 _ --3.3 ___ --10.9 _ --0.5 _--2.8 ___  -- 5.9 _+4.1 _--2.8

20___________--1.3 _ --3.6 _ --2.8 ___ -- 9.7 _ +0.5 _ --2.1 ___ -- 5.8 _ +4.1 _--2.6

21___________--0.5 _ --3.1 _ --2.4 ___ -- 9.2 _ +0.8 _ --2.1 ___ -- 5.3 _+4.1  _--2.5

22___________--0.1 _ --2.5 _ --1.9 ___ -- 8.9 _ +0.9 _ --2.0 ___ -- 5.0 _+4.1 _ --2.6

23___________ +0.5 _ --1.9 _ --1.3___ -- 8.8 _ +1.2 _ --1.5 ___ -- 4.8 _+4.2 _ --2.6

24___________ +0.9 _ --1.5 _ --1.2___ -- 9.0 _ +1.3 _ --1.2 ___  -- 4.3 _+4.3_ --2.6

25___________ +0.2 _ --2.1 _ --1.5 ___-- 9.3 _+1.3  _ --0.7 ___  -- 5.0 _+4.4_ --2.4

26___________--0.1 _ --2.5 _  --1.8 ___-- 9.8 _ +0.9 _ --1.1 ___  -- 5.2 _+4.5_ --2.1

27___________--0.5 _ --2.9 _ --2.3 ___--10.2 _ +0.4 _ --1.6 ___ -- 4.7 _+4.6 _ --1.9

28___________--1.2 _ --3.7 _--2.7 __--10.4 _ +0.1_ --1.7___ --4.3_+4.7_--1.6

Confirmed final anomalies are in bold type.

 

___________________

 

PHX tied daily record max 85 on 14th, then sets a new record max 86 on 15th, ties at 84 on 16th, and a fourth record of 88 on 17th. The high of 86 on the 18th ties a record from 1977. Hints of an analogue?

 

DEN 68 F on 16th after a -41 daily anom earlier in the month. 

 

 

PHX on 24th yet to be confirmed, the CF6 has entered a bogus high of 103 which has been disavowed in a record for date error message and the daily climat report which say 83. Holding with my earlier estimate and not the CF6 report of +4.7 for now.

 

 

(19th) Will post some provisional scores in a couple of days when we are within the NWS d1-7 output period. At this point, if my estimates are within a degree, the lower third of the prediction table will score the most points in general and our  leaders will fall back to the pack after the January escapade; Mallow (and I) best positioned to score in the optional western division ... (20th) little change in the d8-9 outlooks so will go ahead with the first look at provisional scoring, next post ...

 

(22nd) __ Provisional anomalies raised by +1.0 for DCA, NYC and dropped by 0.5 for SEA. Scores adjusted next post.  (24th) DCA adjusted again by +0.5, scores adjusted next post.

 

(25th) __ Provisional anomalies dropped by 0.5 for SEA and 1.0 for IAH, scores below adjusted.

 

 

(27th) __ DEN dropped 0.5 to --4.5, everyone loses ten points so basically a non-event. Scores adjusted anyway.

 

(28th) __ A few minor adjustments will be needed at end of month. I have tweaked NYC down 0.3, ORD 0.5, ATL also 0.5, DEN is adjusted up 0.2, and PHX down 0.2, SEA up 0.4 ... hopefully this will be close to the actuals after tomorrow and the new provisionals will be almost finals now. (should have these edited before morning)

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