Which milestone will NYC accomplish first?

[Hailstorm]

Since we have entered an extended bitter cold period, I would like everyone's opinion on which event will occur first at Central Park:

 

 

1) Central Park records a low below 0*F. This hasn't happened since 1994.

 

2) Central Park records a high below 10*F. This hasn't happened since the mid-1980s.

 

3) Central Park records a Top 5 coldest month for either December, January or February. For example, February 1934 was the coldest February with an average of 19*F.

 

4) Central Park records a -25*F wind chill (warning criteria). It did record a -15*F wind chill earlier this month and verified the Wind Chill Advisory. I am not sure when was the last time NYC saw a -25*F wind chill. It seemed like forever though.

 

 

Please vote in the poll and any feedback and reasons in posts would greatly be appreciated. Thanks.

 

 

Personally, I'd say that NYC will first record a -25*F wind chill. I think it's the easiest feat to accomplish. All you need is an air temp of 3*F and a wind of 40 MPH to get a -25* wind chill.

[Rjay]

Where's the option for none of the above?

And that question isn't a knock on your poll, I just don't think any of them will happen.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

They all seem super hard. Top 5 coldest month is the hardest in my opinion. As cold as its been we aren't even close

To clarify we mean coldest ever during any month not just the coldest month of any particular month

[SnowGoose69]

A top 5 coldest month may occur I swore July 2000 was top 5 coldest but maybe not

[uncle W]

A top 5 coldest month may occur I swore July 2000 was top 5 coldest but maybe not

in my lifetime...

2000 4th coolest July...

1977 2nd coldest January...

1967 2nd coolest May...

1963 5th coolest September...

[rygar]

I don't believe any will  happen this year.  But i voted for a low below 0 as what will one day happen first.

[masomenos]

Good chance 3 out of the 4 all happen in the same day if any of those milestones are reached. The days of radiational cooling are long gone in Central Park, so it would take a stiff due north wind draining -10 to -20 degree air down the North and Mid Hudson Valley. More about wind direction than anything else...I don't think your typical northwest wind will get it done.

[Hailstorm]

I apologize for the delayed response to these replies. I didn't see the replies for some reason until today, but I was still able to see the vote tallies all the time. Forum glitch?

 

They all seem super hard. Top 5 coldest month is the hardest in my opinion. As cold as its been we aren't even close

To clarify we mean coldest ever during any month not just the coldest month of any particular month

Sorry, I edited the poll to make it say "Top 5 Coldest December, January or February." While January 2014 will ilkely finish with a monthly average of 28*F, it is far from the 21*F monthly average recorded in January 1918. In fact, January 2014 doesn't even make it to the Top 10 list.

 

 

Where's the option for none of the above?
And that question isn't a knock on your poll, I just don't think any of them will happen.

I just added a choice that reads "-30*C or lower 850 mb temps reach NYC."

[Rjay]

I apologize for the delayed response to these replies. I didn't see the replies for some reason until today, but I was still able to see the vote tallies all the time. Forum glitch?

Sorry, I edited the poll to make it say "Top 5 Coldest December, January or February." While January 2014 will ilkely finish with a monthly average of 28*F, it is far from the 21*F monthly average recorded in January 1918. In fact, January 2014 doesn't even make it to the Top 10 list.

I just added a choice that reads "-30*C or lower 850 mb temps reach NYC."

Sorry bud, still going with none of the above

[mob1]

When looking at impressive NYC anomalies the one that really stood out was 1888, -5.3 for the entire year! Regarding this poll, I don't think a top 5 coldest winter month (for each month respectively) will be as hard to achieve as the other ones.

[Guest Pamela]

 

 

Since we have entered an extended bitter cold period, I would like everyone's opinion on which event will occur first at Central Park:

 

 

1) Central Park records a low below 0*F. This hasn't happened since 1994.

 

2) Central Park records a high below 10*F. This hasn't happened since the mid-1980s.

 

3) Central Park records a Top 5 coldest month for either December, January or February. For example, February 1934 was the coldest February with an average of 19*F.

 

4) Central Park records a -25*F wind chill (warning criteria). It did record a -15*F wind chill earlier this month and verified the Wind Chill Advisory. I am not sure when was the last time NYC saw a -25*F wind chill. It seemed like forever though.

 

 

Please vote in the poll and any feedback and reasons in posts would greatly be appreciated. Thanks.

 

 

Personally, I'd say that NYC will first record a -25*F wind chill. I think it's the easiest feat to accomplish. All you need is an air temp of 3*F and a wind of 40 MPH to get a -25* wind chill.

 

Records at Central Park go back to 1869...which was still roughly 15 to 20 years before the end of the Little Ice Age...then, throw in the fact that the UHI was of a much lesser intensity during the 19th century and I'd say that while it could happen...the odds of getting a top 5 all time coldest month during December, January or February are extremely slim...but not entirely impossible.  December 1989 & January 1977 made it.