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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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scott just out of curiousity what does it have for eastern end of long island next 24-36.

cause they look like they are on the door step of getting hammered this afternoon.

http://radar.weather...ct=NCR&loop=yes

It only gives eastern LI about 0.15

It does have some wrap around at hr 78, but it skirts the mass coast at that point.

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Just getting a chance to look at some data now. The RUC seems to be handling the area of precip south of eastern LI the best...that area seems to be blossoming. Interesting evening ahead for SE mass and maybe even RI to BOS?

The euro implies this as well. It gives the Cape over 0.5" through about 48 hrs with Chatham getting almost 0.75"

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One of these days HEAVY snow will return to your snow favored area. :) Same for ALB where they haven't seen an above normal snowfall season in six years. Last years lone huge storm hit us here in the hills, but not the mid/upper HV....

I for one, am shocked that my 5" pot of snow at the end of the rainbow is gone from the 12z EURO.

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One of these days HEAVY snow will return to your snow favored area. :) Same for ALB where they haven't seen an above normal snowfall season in six years. Last years lone huge storm hit us here in the hills, but not the mid/upper HV....

9\10 times it's going to end up "no soup for you", when the event whiffs you and your "hopes" lay with an inverted trough.

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

what is that digging swinging thru central georgia is the a moving part? and will that effect the cyclogenesis off North carolina or the precip shield South of long island

thanks and off to xmas partys back at 8. will have radar up at party (reading, ma) then needham) FT.....?W

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Retros and good snow producing inverted troughs are rare...never bet on them. Every now and then you just get lucky with an inverted trough and more often than not it isn''t predicted well by the models. Last January's retro situation was so rare - maybe once a decade at best to get that kind of snow from a retro. Hah ..now everyone is gung ho on retros.

Maybe places like ME are different but I mean southern NE or eastern NY.

9\10 times it's going to end up "no soup for you", when the event whiffs you and your "hopes" lay with an inverted trough.

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Retros and good snow producing inverted troughs are rare...never bet on them. Every now and then you just get lucky with an inverted trough and more often than not it isn''t predicted well by the models. Last January's retro situation was so rare - maybe once a decade at best to get that kind of snow from a retro.

Maybe places like ME are different but I mean southern NE or eastern NY.

Yea, unless you live in downeast ME, more often than not they aren't modeled well.

Usually a nice suprise, but you can't depend on them.

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