Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event

[ackwaves]

More pics...

[CoastalWx]

Nice pics ackwaves.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Drifts in favored spots hit 3-4' but remember I'm near the water it's a mess here.

Snow total is a firm 10" To my surprise in the protected areas there is still 10" on the ground. I snapped a shot of one of our porch railings with 8" on it and that's about the most dry fluffy snow you can stuff on a railing as it looks like a pyramid. If someone phoned in a 11" report or slightly higher from here I'd believe it.

accumulating light snow just moved back n.

[ackwaves]

Nice pics ackwaves.

Thanks. I like how my chicken is saying "WTF".

[ackwaves]

Sn- coming through.

[skierinvermont]

Oh yeah, I totally busted on the Cape where I thought the warm temperatures and NE winds would make it hard to get a big snowstorm, but I'm really glad I played this storm conservatively overall. This basically turned into a non-event outside of a tiny area although just by a scrape...there was sort of a hint for a while the ridge axis would be offshore though and the PV phase early always seemed like a fragile connection. I'm always happy when I beat the ECM 3-4 days out anyway even if I don't understand MVY climo very well. I definitely hand it to you and Dendrite for knowing the ins and outs of how the area does, though, bad call on my part to go so conservative for SE MA.

What do you mean you "beat the ECM" 3-4 days out? You called my brother on the 16th (3-4 days before the storm) and told him it was going to snow. I got bare ground here. Tons of posts on here from you hyping the 12z runs on the 16th hitting NYC HFD BOS:

"I've never seen a storm that's gone from Bermuda to causing mixing issues for SNE. I still think you're going to do fine with this track although BOS and ACK definitely mix a little bit on the 12z ECM.

I don't have a kind heart, I just want to jackpot on every event I think I'll take this run though....probably at least 20" of snow for me and more for you guys "

I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF

[cpickett79]

got 1+ in framingham....probably a shade over.......there was about 1/2 inch prior to the sick band last nite and that dropped 3/4 in 25 min.......so i' m just happy that when i look out the window things are still white.

it was awesome to take a walk last nite when that band swung thru i was utterly shocked as the band started to decay as it got closer to 128.... then ....for some reason it re-energized as it passed 128 headed toward 495. was an awesome walk thru S+ for a good 20 min. funny that is what the cape had for a few hours lasat nite

[nzucker]

What do you mean you "beat the ECM" 3-4 days out? You called my brother on the 16th (3-4 days before the storm) and told him it was going to snow. I got bare ground here. Tons of posts on here from you hyping the 12z runs on the 16th hitting NYC HFD BOS:

I was obviously talking about what the model showed verbatim and how big of a storm might be coming, but I remember saying to you several times I was way more worried about an out-to-sea solution than mixing issues which you had been harping on for days. I never felt it would be easy to get a MECS with such a flat ridge and got very conservative on the storm when the 0z GFS/0z NAM came out and shifted east around 3 days before, telling most people that would probably be the beginning of a trend. Seems like the idea of a scraper worked well but I wish I had gone more aggressive on the Cape...they got more QPF, and more of it as snow, than I ever thought possible.I was sort of kidding about Snowicane #2 for NYC...always nice to have the ECM in your corner three days out but I was not "locking it up" like some on this forum no names mentioned.

In any case doesn't really matter at this point. The weather does what it wants no matter how much of a dead horse we beat with all our discussions and predictions. Always things to learn from every forecast...overall proud of this one but went a bit extreme with the conservatism on the event as the ocean storm did get pretty powerful with the late phase. Still not sure what to think of the big dog as ECM is bullish but it has a weird timing and timing is what this event's about with the northern stream being later to the party and the initial overrunning tamping out. Incredible +PNA linking with the west-based NAO but can the surface low turn the corner in time if the track speeds up?

[powderfreak]

You two are hilarious

[skierinvermont]

I was obviously talking about what the model showed verbatim and how big of a storm might be coming, but I remember saying to you several times I was way more worried about an out-to-sea solution than mixing issues which you had been harping on for days. I never felt it would be easy to get a MECS with such a flat ridge and got very conservative on the storm when the 0z GFS/0z NAM came out and shifted east around 3 days before, telling most people that would probably be the beginning of a trend. Seems like the idea of a scraper worked well but I wish I had gone more aggressive on the Cape...they got more QPF, and more of it as snow, than I ever thought possible.I was sort of kidding about Snowicane #2 for NYC...always nice to have the ECM in your corner three days out but I was not "locking it up" like some on this forum no names mentioned.

In any case doesn't really matter at this point. The weather does what it wants no matter how much of a dead horse we beat with all our discussions and predictions. Always things to learn from every forecast...overall proud of this one but went a bit extreme with the conservatism on the event as the ocean storm did get pretty powerful with the late phase. Still not sure what to think of the big dog as ECM is bullish but it has a weird timing and timing is what this event's about with the northern stream being later to the party and the initial overrunning tamping out. Incredible +PNA linking with the west-based NAO but can the surface low turn the corner in time if the track speeds up?

you bought into the 12z runs same as everyone else, you called my brother and told him it was going to snow a ton

then you said maybe at most a dusting to 1" for CC

CC gets a foot and even areas off the cape get 4"+

you have about a dozen people trolling you for busting

then you claim that you did a good job and are "proud of yourself"

please! just stop!

the fact is you will never do better than anyone else here overall because you have no more information at your disposal and you are dealing with a highly experienced smart group of people.. other than that we are all at the whim of the models

[nzucker]

you bought into the 12z runs same as everyone else, you called my brother and told him it was going to snow a ton

then you said maybe at most a dusting to 1" for CC

CC gets a foot and even areas off the cape get 4"+

you have about a dozen people trolling you for busting

then you claim that you did a good job and are "proud of yourself"

please! just stop!

the fact is you will never do better than anyone else here overall because you have no more information at your disposal and you are dealing with a highly experienced smart group of people.. other than that we are all at the whim of the models

First of all I basically called your brother to hunt you down, but I told him about the 12z ECM since it was certainly news at the time. I'm not saying I didn't consider the ECM carefully, but I was always suspicious of it and I specifically remember telling you not to "lock in" the 0z run that showed a big SNE hit...I also said repeatedly I though out-to-sea was a serious threat for this system....and it happened exactly like that.

Let's look at the overall track error on the system...you said an inland cutter up the Hudson V was highly likely, I was thinking off the coast. It verified off the coast. Sounds like I did pretty well.

[skierinvermont]

First of all I basically called your brother to hunt you down, but I told him about the 12z ECM since it was certainly news at the time. I'm not saying I didn't consider the ECM carefully, but I was always suspicious of it and I specifically remember telling you not to "lock in" the 0z run that showed a big SNE hit...I also said repeatedly I though out-to-sea was a serious threat for this system....and it happened exactly like that.

Let's look at the overall track error on the system...you said an inland cutter up the Hudson V was highly likely, I was thinking off the coast. It verified off the coast. Sounds like I did pretty well.

You're kidding yourself if you don't think you had bought into the 12z runs on the 16th. You specifically told my bro it would snow. In fact i'd say that some sort of EC storm was the 'correct' forecast at that point. Of course there is always a chance the models will be wrong at 3 days out, but that doesn't make it the 'correct' forecast. If someone says 70% chance of a hit and 30% miss are they wrong because the 30% happened? No.

Also I never said an coastal cutter was "likely" I said "possible"

Forecasting storm tracks at 4+ days is a lot of luck beyond some model interpretation skills and pattern knowledge. You insisted no more than a dusting-1" was possible on the Cape just 12 hours prior to the storm. That's why everyone is jumping on you.