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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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I don't see the snow really backing in on radar, it looks as if it will be mostly limited to some lighter accumulations on the Cape. There is a good band near Maine but it looks like some subsidence is really preventing it from moving southwest.

On the overall track, I went with this being mostly an offshore storm/grazer...that's what it was for the most part although a few people on the Cape got legitimate totals and some light snow extended up to BOS and suburbs. Definitely a much more realistic track prediction than the SNE HECS and I-95 HECS the ECM showed on the 0z/12z sequence.

The Cape got heavy snow and the shield extended up to

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

CHATHAM 12.0 1022 PM 12/20 SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES

WEST HARWICH 11.0 1019 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH DENNIS 10.8 1023 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

BREWSTER 10.8 1023 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARSTONS MILLS 10.5 1001 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

DENNIS 10.5 845 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WELLFLEET 10.5 846 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SAGAMORE 10.0 1020 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

HARWICH 9.5 754 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SANDWICH 9.0 1026 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH EASTHAM 8.0 851 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

YARMOUTH 7.5 1019 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH YARMOUTH 6.0 838 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

CENTERVILLE 6.0 800 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST BARNSTABLE 6.0 844 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

ACUSHNET 3.6 848 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

FAIRHAVEN 3.0 849 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

MANSFIELD 2.8 1028 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...DUKES COUNTY...

EDGARTOWN 3.3 810 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...

TOPSFIELD 2.5 917 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

LYNN 2.0 1049 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

PEABODY 2.0 847 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

METHUEN 2.0 1024 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

SWAMPSCOTT 2.0 1050 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

WOBURN 2.7 930 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

BELMONT 2.0 1050 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WILMINGTON 1.5 937 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...

NANTUCKET 5.5 1021 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

WEYMOUTH 4.0 919 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

RANDOLPH 1.9 916 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

PLYMOUTH 7.0 1016 PM 12/20 2 FOOT DRIFTS

MIDDLEBORO 6.2 1004 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

PEMBROKE 6.0 1035 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WAREHAM 6.0 957 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

HANOVER 5.0 1007 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

ROCHESTER 4.2 849 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

BROCKTON 4.0 1003 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

The bolded are areas as close in to BOS/PVD as Dobbs Ferry is to NYC....just sayin.

Admit your bust....you argued with me that Boston would have nothing but flurries in the air. If you don't delete I can find the post.

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I don't see the snow really backing in on radar, it looks as if it will be mostly limited to some lighter accumulations on the Cape. There is a good band near Maine but it looks like some subsidence is really preventing it from moving southwest.

On the overall track, I went with this being mostly an offshore storm/grazer...that's what it was for the most part although a few people on the Cape got legitimate totals and some light snow extended up to BOS and suburbs. Definitely a much more realistic track prediction than the SNE HECS and I-95 HECS the ECM showed on the 0z/12z sequence.

Bust.

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I mean there are reasons you wouldn't get huge QPF here....not a STJ storm and the westerly flow behind the other Atlantic low. HM explained in way better detail. But I still think a 970mb low passing from NJ to LI is going to put down more than .75-1" here, that is really a joke.

Oh yeah, I totally busted on the Cape where I thought the warm temperatures and NE winds would make it hard to get a big snowstorm, but I'm really glad I played this storm conservatively overall. This basically turned into a non-event outside of a tiny area although just by a scrape...there was sort of a hint for a while the ridge axis would be offshore though and the PV phase early always seemed like a fragile connection. I'm always happy when I beat the ECM 3-4 days out anyway even if I don't understand MVY climo very well. I definitely hand it to you and Dendrite for knowing the ins and outs of how the area does, though, bad call on my part to go so conservative for SE MA.

You should be in politics....

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Lt snow picking up .25 cover

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

CHATHAM 12.0 1022 PM 12/20 SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES

WEST HARWICH 11.0 1019 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH DENNIS 10.8 1023 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

BREWSTER 10.8 1023 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARSTONS MILLS 10.5 1001 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

DENNIS 10.5 845 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WELLFLEET 10.5 846 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SAGAMORE 10.0 1020 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

HARWICH 9.5 754 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SANDWICH 9.0 1026 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH EASTHAM 8.0 851 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

YARMOUTH 7.5 1019 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH YARMOUTH 6.0 838 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

CENTERVILLE 6.0 800 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST BARNSTABLE 6.0 844 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

My analysis of picking Chatham as the spot to be 5 days ago, was right on the money... Model huggers FTL.

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Only about 0.2" of additional accumulation in Norwood overnight, bringing my event total to 2.2 inches. Drove in and out of some snowbands on my way into work in Canton this morning, and the snow growth does appear to be better than last night with larger flakes....but the intensity is very light at the moment.

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This was a much larger storm than ANY of us thought, let's face it. It doubled what I expected. I figured maybe someone out by Chatham could get 10" but didn't really believe it would happen because of temps.

I'll take a photo in a few minutes 8 hours after the snow. It's ASTOUNDING how much that powder compacted overnight. I'm going to measure snow depth now, I'm betting it averages 9-10 now when last night there were several spots near 12" in the mix that I discarded. I bet 2" across the board is gone.

Sun is out too which isn't helping. Great storm though.

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