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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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Yeah I've never seen it to that extreme though something is weird. On BR3 the leading edge would be here about now, but all I've got is some big flake light snow. I've never seen an instance where the radar is off that badly, what causes it again?

I have been toggling GYX and Box on reflectivity GYX has the band rotated 30 degrees SE,, edge of radar stuff.

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I have been toggling GYX and Box on reflectivity GYX has the band rotated 30 degrees SE,, edge of radar stuff.

Yeah I think that's it. For Box it's as Scott said if I understand correctly - the snow is probably at an angle in the atmosphere. So it may appear that it's near me but it's actually the band to the south.

I think that's mostly it for several hours.

Still cannot believe school isn't called off.

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I have been toggling GYX and Box on reflectivity GYX has the band rotated 30 degrees SE,, edge of radar stuff.

steve...assuming i understand what you are getting at...the band you are seeing on GYX is the same one that is now pressing well inland in BOX CWA. you are at the outer limits of the RADAR there on GYX...it picks up the snow in the beam but the radar actually "thinks" its closer to home because of the return time it takes on the reflection

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The rapid refresh (HRRR) is showing a punch of dry air at H85 moving in from the NE that is cutting off the precip on the back side of that band. That's why the composite and base radars are off so much and we're getting some 30dbZ vriga. It's probably helping to explain some of the forcing too.

rh_t3850_f03.png

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i'll take it:

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

WELLFLEET 10.5 846 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST HARWICH 10.5 843 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

DENNIS 10.5 845 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

BREWSTER 10.2 706 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

CHATHAM 10.0 847 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

HARWICH 9.5 754 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH EASTHAM 8.0 851 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

YARMOUTH 6.5 839 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SANDWICH 6.4 614 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST BARNSTABLE 6.0 844 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH YARMOUTH 6.0 838 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

CENTERVILLE 6.0 800 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

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steve...assuming i understand what you are getting at...the band you are seeing on GYX is the same one that is now pressing well inland in BOX CWA. you are at the outer limits of the RADAR there on GYX...it picks up the snow in the beam but the radar actually "thinks" its closer to home because of the return time it takes on the reflection

Yea that's why I said edge of radar stuff, man the Falmouth area getting crushed

South Chatham, South Dennis no power.

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The rapid refresh (HRRR) is showing a punch of dry air at H85 moving in from the NE that is cutting off the precip on the back side of that band. That's why the composite and base radars are off so much and we're getting some 30dbZ vriga. It's probably helping to explain some of the forcing too.

Thanks for the explanation. I was surprised when the band I thought was going to put us over the 1'' mark ended up doing nothing. Buzzkill.

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i'll take it:

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

WELLFLEET 10.5 846 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST HARWICH 10.5 843 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

DENNIS 10.5 845 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

BREWSTER 10.2 706 PM 12/20 GENERAL PUBLIC

CHATHAM 10.0 847 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

HARWICH 9.5 754 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH EASTHAM 8.0 851 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

YARMOUTH 6.5 839 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SANDWICH 6.4 614 PM 12/20 NWS EMPLOYEE

WEST BARNSTABLE 6.0 844 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH YARMOUTH 6.0 838 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

CENTERVILLE 6.0 800 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER

Updates

South Chatham 12

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I normally use base, for some reason I was on composite tonight. USUALLY the differences are minor, how is the composite showing a band of heavy precip where there is none? I've seen it off by a few miles before, but that's nuts? Some of the BR tilts show the same thing....is it literally that it's virga, or that it's phantom echoes

I'm between 10 and 11, that's all I'm comfortable saying as I don't play it by the book in terms of I cleared once all day. If someone nearby reported 9 wonderful I'm not going to argue.

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I normally use base, for some reason I was on composite tonight. USUALLY the differences are minor, how is the composite showing a band of heavy precip where there is none? I've seen it off by a few miles before, but that's nuts? Some of the BR tilts show the same thing....is it literally that it's virga, or that it's phantom echoes

I'm between 10 and 11, that's all I'm comfortable saying as I don't play it by the book in terms of I cleared once all day. If someone nearby reported 9 wonderful I'm not going to argue.

It could be echoes aloft too. If you notice GYX sounding, it's saturated above 700mb with a big warm spike. Snow could be generated at that level, but the drier air underneath is gobbling up the echoes.

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