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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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I actually came up with an equation to derive a realistic snowfall forecast from kevin's predictions. Its pretty simple...just multiply by 0.40 and that's what wl probably happen.

:lol: thanks! I'll start applying the conversion factor

I also came up with an equation for obtaining a realistic storm track from Kev's forecast. Multply the distance from the benchmark by 2.5

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Scooter..you haven't really given your thoughts thru Thursday for areas not in Eastern mass. Seems like Phil and i think everyone snows..

What about you? No wishy washiness please :scooter:

I want to see the euro first. I'm not terribly excited about this, but I'm hoping we can squeeze out some snow. The gfs did have the vortmax rotating west which is good I guess. If Dr No doesn't differ all that much from 00z, I'll feel better. 00z went a little nuts.

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LOL, most of you have all gone mad. Led down the Primrose path by Pickles and Blizz as they skip to the beat of fantasyland music. At least the pro Mets and a few keen eyed observers are still grounded in reality. There really isn't likely to be much snow this week, maybe a t-1" in the eastern wastelands but I think everyone should hope for better times with the X-mas threat. A few renegade flakes are flying here but I don't think it has anything to do with the current system which is moving inexhorably ENE OTS. The one caveat is congrats to Phil and the rest of the CC gang as it does look like they'll see a little. Also, kudos to Phil for keeping his emotions in check even though he has had the best position for becoming a total weenie on this one. Think Snow.... about a week from now.

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LOL, most of you have all gone mad. Led down the Primrose path by me and my dazzling long hair you were in awe like i was gene simmons. At least the pro Mets and a few keen eyed observers are still grounded in reality. There really isn't likely to be much snow this week, maybe a t-1" in the eastern wastelands but I think everyone should hope for better times with the X-mas threat. A few renegade flakes are flying here but I don't think it has anything to do with the current system which is moving inexhorably ENE OTS. The one caveat is congrats to Phil and the rest of the CC gang as it does look like they'll see a little. Also, kudos to Phil for keeping his emotions in check even though he has had the best position for becoming a total weenie on this one. Think Snow.... about a week from now.

we forgive you pete we hear your voice echo ...heavy heavy winter

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Pristine winter day here...mostly sunny and 26F now. Way up from the low of 3F. I guess our 2-4" of cover helped a bit with radiating overnight.

From my perspective it looks good old "Interior Eastern NY and Western NE" (maybe VT excepted) is in the sucker hole most of this week. Maybe we get lucky finally with the Christmas storm. Yeah the NAM teased .25" back to here, but I'd be highly dubious at this point.

LOL, most of you have all gone mad. Led down the Primrose path by Pickles and Blizz as they skip to the beat of fantasyland music. At least the pro Mets and a few keen eyed observers are still grounded in reality. There really isn't likely to be much snow this week, maybe a t-1" in the eastern wastelands but I think everyone should hope for better times with the X-mas threat. A few renegade flakes are flying here but I don't think it has anything to do with the current system which is moving inexhorably ENE OTS. The one caveat is congrats to Phil and the rest of the CC gang as it does look like they'll see a little. Also, kudos to Phil for keeping his emotions in check even though he has had the best position for becoming a total weenie on this one. Think Snow.... about a week from now.

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Pristine winter day here...mostly sunny and 26F now. Way up from the low of 3F. I guess our 2-4" of cover helped a bit with radiating overnight.

From my perspective it looks good old "Interior Eastern NY and Western NE" (maybe VT excepted) is in the sucker hole most of this week. Maybe we get lucky finally with the Christmas storm. Yeah the NAM teased .25" back to here, but I'd be highly dubious at this point.

I'm looking forward to a partly to mostly cloudy week with high temps in the 20's. That Nam solution has little chance to work out for us. I do think the X-mas storm has some potential, good signal something could happen. However, it's way out in fantasyland as far as I'm concerned. You know, Andy had this whole non 'event' pegged from early this past week. He's quite good. 27/17 currently. I think you are right about our snowcover, I've been in te single digits (one night below 0) every night this week.

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He said this morning that he is somewhat more interested in the Christmas event, but too early to call that..... and that amplitude of the ridge out west will be a key factor.

I'm looking forward to a partly to mostly cloudy week with high temps in the 20's. That Nam solution has little chance to work out for us. I do think the X-mas storm has some potential, good signal something could happen. However, it's way out in fantasyland as far as I'm concerned. You know, Andy had this whole non 'event' pegged from early this past week. He's quite good.

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Be interesting to see how it handles the later retro snows...if there are any. I wouldn't believe the NAM unless it gets some back up such as from the ECMWF.

It even gives me 2-3" by hr 60. The Cape gets almost 0.5" with 0.75+ towards the elbow by hr 60.It basically takes this precip shield and stalls ir near the Cape. It menders a little, but even gets some qpf back beyond 128.

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It even gives me 2-3" by hr 60. The Cape gets almost 0.5" with 0.75+ towards the elbow by hr 60.It basically takes this precip shield and stalls ir near the Cape. It menders a little, but even gets some qpf back beyond 128.

scott just out of curiousity what does it have for eastern end of long island next 24-36.

cause they look like they are on the door step of getting hammered this afternoon.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=okx&product=NCR&loop=yes

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