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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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Depending on how this plays out tonight from a scoring standpoint this is one of the worst busts in recent memory. It's been VERY rare for them to bust low but even at 5pm there were still 3-6 type forecasts for down here. It's a pleasant surprise but I doubt any forecaster would say this was a job well done. This will be a great learning experience.

Thanks

Yeah, basically the leading edge of a warmer airmass aloft that is advecting in from off the atlantic. The 00z raobs show warmer temps aloft over the maritimes (like at 700) and good convergence over the northeast.

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NAM precip through 60h. A weenie can dream. :snowman:

Funny the nam was so good with this system and the second part, it just freaked at 18z. Right back on the bus. Let's face it, it's a 50 mile difference again between another warning event and not much.

Weathefella I think you're right, we will have another chance at bat later but I don't know in what form.

Arn etc, thanks for answering.

This was not a 1/25/00, nowhere near the impact but it does go to show even today with all the models and available tools we can still get caught with our pants down. I was telling my brother 1-3/2-5 for us here for a few days but was wavering with the rain last night. frankly I was pissed, kind of shocked how this played out. I expected my shot was last night for a few inches and that today it would be just east of me. Boy...

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