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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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1 more frame will essentially confirm this is coming. It's almsot on the beach now. But somehow I expect to see a snow donut open up. Just too good to be true.

This thing definitely looks like it is coming our way, almost looks like it's intensifying

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class leading but it kind of laid a duck on this last band.

RGEM/GGEM were abysmal. As late as last night they had anythign significant out by the BM. Euro was okay I think, GFS bad, Nogaps bad, Ukmet terrible.

RUC was good, but it stunk today. Was terrible today but then again I dont think it's designed really to be picking up inbound threats from the east.

I talked to Phil earlier, and the thing about these setups, is that sometimes they are further sw than modeled. It seems like that happens more often than not. I used my 850-500RH/VV prog and some signals were there, but the ULL really drove the WAA west. Look at that mega frontogenesis band moving west. Best lift will be with direct circulation setting up on the warm side of thermal packing.

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Damn it! I noticed a pivot just north of Barnstable harbor..going to be a squeaker I doubt I see the most intense echoes but maybe some mod to heavy. Quiet outside so I know it's snowing pretty good again.

how do you think thats going to miss?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

looks to be coming straight in

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How do you have that much when closer downtown we have somewhere between 0.5 and 1"? Is is colder down there or something?

Streets were wet early on including sidewalks but my deck has accumed from the beginning. There is definitely less on the concrete then my deck. I had a half inch at like 3 or 4 and its now 7 and ive had under 1/2sm the entire time.

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Dynamics are shifting it's going to miss to my north but I still expect some moderate snow. Doesn't look like it's going to be all that bad, dynamics aren't making it west.

Look like i'm going to get smacked by it here in Kingston, will let you know what happens.

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I talked to Phil earlier, and the thing about these setups, is that sometimes they are further sw than modeled. It seems like that happens more often than not. I used my 850-500RH/VV prog and some signals were there, but the ULL really drove the WAA west. Look at that mega frontogenesis band moving west. Best lift will be with direct circulation setting up on the warm side of thermal packing.

I'd agree and add west nw too, always seems to make it a little further west than it should/modeled.

I'm going to be pissed if this misses by what is 5-7 miles right now. That's got to be 3/4 to 1/4

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All I can say is what I see. I'm in an open space near a park and there is no surface with over an inch.

I walked home from JP to Brookline and while it's all windblown I think 1-1.5 is a reasonable guestimate. I go by the lawns and decks/benches. And still coming down at a good clip. We'll end up with 2-3 by dawn. If we're lucky 10x that amt Monday morning.

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