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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it.

I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I'm almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best.

Yeah, nice post John.

The NAM has already backed off tonight's snow completely and is now producing it as it wraps around from a Norlun setup. Seems unlikely to me.

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No I said minor accums on wed were possible but mainly just flurries and no big deal... I doubt most people in CT see anything.

I think your forecast is spot on, Ct is not in the game for some piece of crap warm advection flurry thon from off the atlantic, which will probably turn to rain anyways with very warm BL temps.

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I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it.

I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best.

yup i took advantage of this pattern and bet ray 20$ he doesn't see 5 inches by the end of dec.

i would bet anyone 20$ that this wednesday threat wiffs (i.e less than an inch IMBY) as well. we are going for the record in boston for snowless days....and what will happen is that in the 24'th hour a weak eddy will come down drop a 1/4 inch at bos.....and then the history books will have no real memory of our misery. l

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The majority of viewers in the market. Right now doesn't look like a big deal... if the models still have it later tomorrow I'll get more excited. Certainly has the potential to be bigger but I think the odds of that are still low.

Fair enough. I'll be happy with your forecast for me of t-2..

Still think potential is there for more.Norluns/inverted troughs like this area of the state in the past

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I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it.

I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I'm almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best.

This^^^^^

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Yeah, nice post John.

The NAM has already backed off tonight's snow completely and is now producing it as it wraps around from a Norlun setup. Seems unlikely to me.

I'll just be happy with the ground whitened. I don't expect much out of this, but if I can squeeze out an inch...or even two, I'll be happy. Should be interesting to see how it pans out, but these situations can disappoint too. Hopefully the gfs tries to side with the euro.

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yup i took advantage of this pattern and bet ray 20$ he doesn't see 5 inches by the end of dec.

i would bet anyone 20$ that this wednesday threat wiffs (i.e less than an inch IMBY) as well. we are going for the record in boston for snowless days....and what will happen is that in the 24'th hour a weak eddy will come down drop a 1/4 inch at bos.....and then the history books will have no real memory of our misery. l

:lol:

Although precisely you said you bet him 20 bucks by the "end of dec" - I think you have a good shot at losing that bet around the 24-26th of the month. If you had said 20 bucks before xmass eve you would probably been better off.

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I'll just be happy with the ground whitened. I don't expect much out of this, but if I can squeeze out an inch...or even two, I'll be happy. Should be interesting to see how it pans out, but these situations can disappoint too. Hopefully the gfs tries to side with the euro.

it will after the euro drops it by 0z runs to close the weekend.

sorry kev. i mean it's written in the stars that pete stares up at in w.b.f mass.

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:lol:

Although precisely you said you bet him 20 bucks by the "end of dec" - I think you have a good shot at losing that bet around the 24-26th of the month. If you had said 20 bucks before xmass eve you would probably been better off.

i'd love to lose that bet.

but i bet it goes south or drops 2-3 inches.

i think early january we may see two events then mid month temps will be in the 40's for a good stretch.

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