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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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so we got one low down 300 miles east of Palm beach/FT laud. florida at 1003 mb :axe: to be honest it looks damn impressive to me....compared to anything i saw down there this time of year http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

and a 1004 low East of hatteras

Will could that one low east of NW bahamas just go merrily out to sea or is attatched to this trough for life.

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I think we should keep the two events separate...this can be the hallucination/weenie NW trend thread for the initial coastal later today/tomorrow....we alreayd have an established thread for the inverted trough/norlun potential later in the week...that gets enhanced by a new shortwave that comes out of the midwest.

LOL

Is it possible that shortwave in the midwest produces snow for us, regardless of whether we get this phantom Norlun event? Maybe just sort of bowling-ball its way in here and whiten us up?

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Well considering last nite on air you said no snow chances until X-mas day..certainly a 180 from you

lol I said some snow was possible on Wednesday.,.. mainly minor accumulations. I still think that's a good call.

Over the last 2 months we've seen a couple of these things modeled 72-96 hours out and not one has come to fruition.

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lol I said some snow was possible on Wednesday.,.. mainly minor accumulations. I still think that's a good call.

Over the last 2 months we've seen a couple of these things modeled 72-96 hours out and not one has come to fruition.

At 6:00 last nite you mentioned flurries tonite..and flurries possible Wed and that the best chances for white X-mas would be the 25th..Please no spinning out of this one

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I don't know - it almost seems you'd be better off dropping it. If it snows somehow beyond the ability of this pattern to find least excuse imaginable to prevent it from snowing, just enjoy it.

I suspect the NAM will continue to dry out as these intervals get inside 42 hours over the next several cycles, because it is slowly capitulating to the progressivity of the ECM/GFS blend. In fact, I'm almost willing to bet that "wrap-around" won't get here either, and if it snows at all mid week it will be from a Norlun-like scenario, which at that point would be indirectly associated with the cyclone at best.

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At 6:00 last nite you mentioned flurries tonite..and flurries possible Wed and that the best chances for white X-mas would be the 25th..Please no spinning out of this one

No I said minor accums on wed were possible but mainly just flurries and no big deal... I doubt most people in CT see anything.

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