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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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Some lights go out? Who hit the switch?

If the outer cape can go to snow they may have warning criteria snows out there.

Can clearly see the cutoff is trying to setup now, probably will end up just to the east of the canal.

Last year we missed blizzards just to our south. We're starting this year by somehow missing them literally 30-50 miles to our east.

We are so snow jinxed!

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I'm a mile from the nip and it's coming down nicely

yes and looking at trends it seems like it's setting up like it always does (or the way i remembered it)

east bridgewater SW down to lakeville / east freetown then east...with heaviest stuff just east of that .....and lighter stuff for raynham.....taunton ....with occ. moderate bursts.

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The pussification of the NFL continues. They're going to turn this into Nascar where nobody cares to watch it any longer as it's so homogenous.

Weathafella the NAM is going to be right with that trough I think. I just hate the fact that we're going to miss this storm tonight by miles. You can already see precip rotating east. Someone under an OES band could get buried tonight but it's not going to be me. Temps are staying up too much.

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The pussification of the NFL continues. They're going to turn this into Nascar where nobody cares to watch it any longer as it's so homogenous.

Weathafella the NAM is going to be right with that trough I think. I just hate the fact that we're going to miss this storm tonight by miles. You can already see precip rotating east. Someone under an OES band could get buried tonight but it's not going to be me. Temps are staying up too much.

One thing Scott......NAM may be OTL but has had variations of the same solution now for about 8 runs in a row. Re: helmut to helmut.....good call. We all have TBI from all the hits on the head we took. Once I learned what it was...I realized why some of these ex NFLers and boxers are in such bad shape..

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The pussification of the NFL continues. They're going to turn this into Nascar where nobody cares to watch it any longer as it's so homogenous.

Weathafella the NAM is going to be right with that trough I think. I just hate the fact that we're going to miss this storm tonight by miles. You can already see precip rotating east. Someone under an OES band could get buried tonight but it's not going to be me. Temps are staying up too much.

looks like waverly golf course several miles sw of white horse beach is getting 30-35 dbz echoes.....gotta be accumulating nicely down in south plymouth area.

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It's out in its extended and less than useful range but NAM pivots some pretty heavy snow down into the Boston area late Wed/Wed night.

Your definitions of moderate and heavy snow are a bit unusual...between 18-42 hours, the NAM has Boston in the .01-.1 for each 6-hour frame...that's basically flurries, maybe a dusting outside the city center. Even 72 is only around an inch of snow over six hours so it's not "pretty heavy." I'm curious as to why the NAM is keying in on such an intense lobe of vorticity rounding the backside of the low, creating much more of a Norlun feature than the GFS shows. I think this might be hocus-pocus but it's certainly open to interpretation.

Radar returns have really fallen apart for the initial ocean storm in the last few frames. Still looks as if most of the precipitation will slip east with only light accumulations for a few lucky people in SE Mass and maybe the Cape, if the ground isn't too wet/warm. ACK did go over to all snow at the last report but still 34F there.

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Your definitions of moderate and heavy snow are a bit unusual...between 18-42 hours, the NAM has Boston in the .01-.1 for each 6-hour frame...that's basically flurries, maybe a dusting outside the city center. Even 72 is only around an inch of snow over six hours so it's not "pretty heavy." I'm curious as to why the NAM is keying in on such an intense lobe of vorticity rounding the backside of the low, creating much more of a Norlun feature than the GFS shows. I think this might be hocus-pocus but it's certainly open to interpretation.

Radar returns have really fallen apart for the initial ocean storm in the last few frames. Still looks as if most of the precipitation will slip east with only light accumulations for a few lucky people in SE Mass and maybe the Cape, if the ground isn't too wet/warm. ACK did go over to all snow at the last report but still 34F there.

True. I was mireading the qpf. However, I am not misreading the 84 hour total of 1+ which includes most of us in the immediate BOS area. Will gets just under that. Dobbs Ferry gets a bit under 0.25. Must be wrong.

edit: Look at this image. Heavy snow.

nam_p12_084l.gif

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True. I was mireading the qpf. However, I am not misreading the 84 hour total of 1+ which includes most of us in the immediate BOS area. Will gets just under that. Dobbs Ferry gets a bit under 0.25. Must be wrong.

I don't think you were misreading anything. This is a 24 hour precip total ending 12z Thursday. That's an impressive days worth of snow that none of us will complain about.

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nantucket about to get ROCKED

. 34/32 at a couple meso sites on the island gotta be heavy wet snow.....with the heavy echos temps will probably dynamically cool toward 33 and things should get accumulating potentially very well.

the storm is deepening so the preceip shield could be a variable with longitudinal progession

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Your definitions of moderate and heavy snow are a bit unusual...between 18-42 hours, the NAM has Boston in the .01-.1 for each 6-hour frame...that's basically flurries, maybe a dusting outside the city center. Even 72 is only around an inch of snow over six hours so it's not "pretty heavy." I'm curious as to why the NAM is keying in on such an intense lobe of vorticity rounding the backside of the low, creating much more of a Norlun feature than the GFS shows. I think this might be hocus-pocus but it's certainly open to interpretation.

Radar returns have really fallen apart for the initial ocean storm in the last few frames. Still looks as if most of the precipitation will slip east with only light accumulations for a few lucky people in SE Mass and maybe the Cape, if the ground isn't too wet/warm. ACK did go over to all snow at the last report but still 34F there.

echoes 150 miles S of Block Island suggest the potential for east-to-west banding in a few hours

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echoes 150 miles S of Block Island suggest the potential for east-to-west banding in a few hours

If I were to bet - and I'll make a call in the next hour...I bet no accumulations here by morning. I'm talking my specific area. There may be some snows on either side of me, but this looks anemic right now. There are hints we may see a second band form (south of BI right now) but I'm not sold on it. The RUC continues to push things SE with each run. This main first shield is going to be a bust aside of the outer cape.

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True. I was mireading the qpf. However, I am not misreading the 84 hour total of 1+ which includes most of us in the immediate BOS area. Will gets just under that. Dobbs Ferry gets a bit under 0.25. Must be wrong.

edit: Look at this image. Heavy snow.

The NAM hammers BOS at 78/84, but I don't believe it one bit. How many times have we seen moderate snow from NYC-BOS with a surface low off Newfoundland? This run looks completely unrealistic and should be entirely discounted. The GFS also doesn't show the intense H5 energy in the back of the trough that allows the Norlun to happen, so this may be a figment of the NAM's imagination. I still think BOS could break the record number of days without accumulating snowfall quite easily.

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