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Down to the wire and models are saying wtf? 12/19-20 event


weathafella

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A few yellow returns showing up on radar to my south. Prolly IP.

http://radar.weather...id=box&loop=yes

Just wanted to add south of LI the western echoes are drying. The cutoff is sharpening up now and the race will be on for part 1. It looks to me like we're starting to see the curve north but the pivot point may be a little east for my area.

The 0z should put the squash on the doubts, it'll either jump east or we will see a move to the NAM solution. I can't see there being a big spread this late.

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So some of you guys already have 1/2"? Wow that's not bad.

I think some of that is OES driven. The storm precip here is weak so far but we're about to get into a good shield if it doesnt dry up.

Some things for future storms...the S/W near Pitt...not only did it come in stronger on most runs for days but subsequently slower. That's happening again now so it may have some effects on the 0z run.

Second the QPF bombs did diminish some but it ultimately didn't change the fact that the southern s/w moving off Florida did initiate a pretty strong southern low. The models were mostly right in that regard although the models that had that feature as the only one were wrong.

You can see that system clearly on the w/v

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There's clearly some ocean enhancement now setting up on the south shore. You can see the individual bands starting to set up.

Yeah looking at it you can see clearly it's into central PYM county and parts of bristol. That may be the snow jackpot area. If I'm struggling with temps here it won't matter how much falls to the east.

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Tell you guys the truth I'm not convinced I'll even get accumulating snow yet. I really hate the fact that we cannot just have cut and dry storms now. This is yet another one that even if the models were 99% accurate it will literally be a 20-30 mile difference in where that one band sets up. Right now it looks just eats of the Cape, but who knows? A few mb stronger...

Plus the OES is getting going. That could be the big surprise player.

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