Great Lakes Ice Cover

[ORH_wxman]

Its not going to happen....  

 

Tomorrow will warm into the low 40's across the bottom of Lake Michigan and Erie, that will probably set the figure backwards.

 

 

That is why I said tonight's update will have to be the one.

[Juliancolton]

Stings less than if it were 94.5% or something.

[bluewave]

Really impressive to see Lake Michigan break the 1977 record.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=101042&source=0

 

Lake Michigan Ice Cover Reaches Record Coverage!

This last stretch of cold weather during late February into the first week of March caused ice concentration on Lake Michigan to rapidly increase. The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in Ann Arbor Michigan measures the ice concentration on the Great Lakes daily.  On March 8th, the ice concentration on Lake Michigan was measured at 93.29%.  This sets anew record ice cover on Lake Michigan.  The previous record was 93.1% set in 1977.   The period of record dates back to 1973. 

 

[TerryM]

Any guesses as to when the ice melts out? I'd found this record from 1636:

 

In 1636, Anishnaabeg from Lake Nipissing over-wintered with their Wendat allies on 

southern Georgian Bay. Although seventy of them died there from diseases, they were 

not interred. Jesuit Relations reports that “[o]n the 19th [April], the Bissiriniens, seeing 

the ice broken and the lake open, embarked to return to their own country, and carried 

away in seven canoes seventy of those who had died while they wintered among the 

Hurons.

 

Somehow I think southern Georgian Bay will be open (at least to canoes) prior to mid April.

Terry

[Jonger]

 

Any guesses as to when the ice melts out? I'd found this record from 1636:

 

In 1636, Anishnaabeg from Lake Nipissing over-wintered with their Wendat allies on 

southern Georgian Bay. Although seventy of them died there from diseases, they were 

not interred. Jesuit Relations reports that “[o]n the 19th [April], the Bissiriniens, seeing 

the ice broken and the lake open, embarked to return to their own country, and carried 

away in seven canoes seventy of those who had died while they wintered among the 

Hurons.

 

Somehow I think southern Georgian Bay will be open (at least to canoes) prior to mid April.

Terry

 

 

Why do you think this?

[WE GOT HIM]

Still very impressive

[Jonger]

Unprecedented April ice cover.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Unprecedented April ice cover.

 

Many are calling it a once-in-a-generation ice coverage on the Lakes

http://www.sheboyganpress.com/article/20140411/SHE0101/304110209/The-big-melt-Once-generation-ice-lakes-delays-shipping-season

 

Took this pic of the Detroit River on April 7th...crazy

[Jonger]

I think my cousin had his Gopro recording when we snowmobiled 5 miles out into Lake Huron 2 weeks ago. You can see us hunting for paths through the ice walls, the ice was 4 feet think and probably 20 feet tall in spots. The real tall mounds of ice were on Superior.

[WE GOT HIM]

Lol even more wow...

[michsnowfreak]

Amazing

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/04/lake_superior_ice_currently_hi.html#incart_2box

[TerryM]

The WACCy weather has been getting out of hand, here in North America.

 

Terry

[Jonger]

It was a top 10 cold winter, followed by a cold spring... Just a rare combo apparently.

[michsnowfreak]

It was a top 10 cold winter, followed by a cold spring... Just a rare combo apparently.

 

 

The WACCy weather has been getting out of hand, here in North America.

 

Terry

The amount of cold, snowfall, snowcover, snowdepth, and ice cover statewide during the same season (in MI) we saw in 2013-14 has not been matched since records began

[michsnowfreak]

Great Lakes still 26% ice covered on May 1st. Incredible...and this story in todays Free Press certainly leaves me intrigued, though its taken with a grain of salt...

http://www.freep.com/article/20140501/NEWS06/305010053/great-lakes-ice-cover

 

The Winter of 2013-14 demands that it be remembered. A relatively cool spring will give way to a colder-than-usual summer locally, all because of the continuing impacts of the intensely frigid, snowy winter, scientists said. And at least one Great Lakes ice researcher thinks that the domino effect could continue into a chilly fall and an early start to next winter — and beyond.

[TerryM]

Here in S. Ontario the weather is still unseasonably cool. At least one researcher (no link) has forecast that this may be a repeating pattern as Arctic ice continues it's retreat.

Whatever the cause, standing in front of snow drifts in late April makes conversations about AGW that much more difficult. Locally this winter I'd taken to pointing out that the N of 80 temperatures seem to be on the other end of a see-saw when compared to ours. Ours were very low while theirs were very high.

Terry

[ORH_wxman]

Great Lakes still 26% ice covered on May 1st. Incredible...and this story in todays Free Press certainly leaves me intrigued, though its taken with a grain of salt...

http://www.freep.com/article/20140501/NEWS06/305010053/great-lakes-ice-cover

 

The Winter of 2013-14 demands that it be remembered. A relatively cool spring will give way to a colder-than-usual summer locally, all because of the continuing impacts of the intensely frigid, snowy winter, scientists said. And at least one Great Lakes ice researcher thinks that the domino effect could continue into a chilly fall and an early start to next winter — and beyond.

 

 

Its been pretty remarkable how long it has stayed this high...blowing away even years like 1978-1979.

[OSUmetstud]

Its been pretty remarkable how long it has stayed this high...blowing away even years like 1978-1979.

This was posted in the Upstate NY subforum, figured it was appropriate for here.  Niziol seems to estimate this is the greatest ice concentration on the Great Lakes since the winter/spring of 1885.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/tniziol/comment.html?entrynum=5#commenttop

[ORH_wxman]

This was posted in the Upstate NY subforum, figured it was appropriate for here.  Niziol seems to estimate this is the greatest ice concentration on the Great Lakes since the winter/spring of 1885.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/tniziol/comment.html?entrynum=5#commenttop

 

 

That's pretty cool, thanks for the link....pretty amazing to see the cold just two years after the extreme warmth.

 

 

The obscenely warm 1877-1878 winter shows up on the graph too.

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Interesting that the great lakes region shows no upward or downward trend in winter temps. Its been essentially the same for 138+ years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Persistence is far more important than absolute cold.

 

Persistent cold and snow cover allowed for near continuous conditions during the low solar period for the ice to grow much thicker than ever before.

[Jonger]

Marquette recorded its coldest March temp of all time this year, so it's been a bit of both. Just a real freak winter.... AGW or not... The odds of experiencing this again in my life is next to zero.

[OSUmetstud]

Interesting that the great lakes region shows no upward or downward trend in winter temps. Its been essentially the same for 138+ years.

I think there's been an uptick in snowfall in the great lakes over the past few decades.  Also, Lake Erie has had a few years over the last 20 or so where it hasn't frozen over at all.  

[ORH_wxman]

I think there's been an uptick in snowfall in the great lakes over the past few decades.  Also, Lake Erie has had a few years over the last 20 or so where it hasn't frozen over at all.  

 

 

The graph "looks" flat but if you linearly regress it, then its an upward trend in temps anyway. Not a huge upward trend, but there.

 

 

It also looks flatter too because Niziol includes the late 1870s/ early 1880s which had some absolute torch winters...documented pretty well in the midwest and lakes (1877-1878 remains the warmest winter on record for a ton of sites out there that were recording data that far back). Those winters are usually not on other graphs since most of the NCDC stuff starts in 1895.

[michsnowfreak]

Its been pretty remarkable how long it has stayed this high...blowing away even years like 1978-1979.

No one is going to forget this winter here in the Great Lakes....the record books are cemented in with the cold and snowfall records...but other things stand out even more to some, from the ridiculous, unheard of depth of snow on the ground all winter here in the "south" (anyone who lives in a rural area in SE MI had 6 foot+ drifts most of the 2nd half of winter)...to the state-wide extreme cold, constant wind, and constant blowing snow on those rare days when it wasnt actually snowing. But from a general, non localized standpoint...the ice situation lingering 2 months into met spring is certainly making its bid as well. The Detroit River here was choked full of ice the 2nd week of April, and Mackinac Island couldnt even get enough ice breakers to clear anything for their opening weekend the last weekend of April (they had to fly people over from the city).

[michsnowfreak]

The graph "looks" flat but if you linearly regress it, then its an upward trend in temps anyway. Not a huge upward trend, but there.

 

 

It also looks flatter too because Niziol includes the late 1870s/ early 1880s which had some absolute torch winters...documented pretty well in the midwest and lakes (1877-1878 remains the warmest winter on record for a ton of sites out there that were recording data that far back). Those winters are usually not on other graphs since most of the NCDC stuff starts in 1895.

1877-78 is known as the "year without a winter" in the upper midwest, but it did have a few nice snowstorms. Nothing was worse than 1881-82 in this area. By far the warmest winter on record to this date, as well as 2nd least snowy...coming right after the severe winter of 1880-81, which held Detroits snow crown until 2013-14. Another crazy torch winter was 1889-90, though it was a very cold spring that year. When you look in the record books, the weather during those winters of 1877-78, 1881-82, and 1889-90 seems almost hard to believe...but there is enough documentation in newspapers, etc to back up the weather records. Its kind of an interesting quirk not really seen since (a trio of crazy warm winters in a period of otherwise cold winters).

 

Per that graph, 2013-14 was the 2nd coldest Dec-Mar on record in the Great Lakes since 1876, behind only 1884-85. I dont know about Dec-Mar, but I do know that it was the 4th coldest Nov-Mar period on record at Detroit, and the coldest since 1911-12.

 

The overall uptick in snowfall cannot be denied...but it will be really interesting to see temp trends in the coming winters.

[michsnowfreak]

Marquette recorded its coldest March temp of all time this year, so it's been a bit of both. Just a real freak winter.... AGW or not... The odds of experiencing this again in my life is next to zero.

We will not be experiencing it again. We will have snowy winters, but we will not see another 2013-14. Just too much. Best way I can put it...is coworker who grew up in Sault Ste Marie and moved here 7 years ago...said this winter was just like Soo winters she remembered growing up, and she was beyond sick of it. In fact, she claimed to like snow..but was so sick of winter by March she was changing her tune. And yes, she had previously mocked what we considered a snowy winter here. So yes...all things combined...this winter is not happening again.

[ORH_wxman]

1877-78 is known as the "year without a winter" in the upper midwest, but it did have a few nice snowstorms. Nothing was worse than 1881-82 in this area. By far the warmest winter on record to this date, as well as 2nd least snowy...coming right after the severe winter of 1880-81, which held Detroits snow crown until 2013-14. Another crazy torch winter was 1889-90, though it was a very cold spring that year. When you look in the record books, the weather during those winters of 1877-78, 1881-82, and 1889-90 seems almost hard to believe...but there is enough documentation in newspapers, etc to back up the weather records. Its kind of an interesting quirk not really seen since (a trio of crazy warm winters in a period of otherwise cold winters).

 

Per that graph, 2013-14 was the 2nd coldest Dec-Mar on record in the Great Lakes since 1876, behind only 1884-85. I dont know about Dec-Mar, but I do know that it was the 4th coldest Nov-Mar period on record at Detroit, and the coldest since 1911-12.

 

The overall uptick in snowfall cannot be denied...but it will be really interesting to see temp trends in the coming winters.

 

 

Yes, the very warm winters in that period are documented well out in the midwest/upper plains. There's actually some pretty solid wx stations out there that have good records going back to the 1870s or even further. It is a pretty bizarre thing to see on the records as winters of that magnitude in warmth in the upper plains and midwest/lakes were not seen again until very recently.

 

 

The 1877-1878 winter was believed to be a pretty potent El Nino...a big time torch El Nino of course for the plains. Some of the weather stations in MN and WI have that as their warmest winter on record by like 3F+....totally blowing the next closest winter away which for many of those stations is the torch El Nino of 1997-1998. Kind of hard to comprehend considering the colder base climate back then.

 

Then on the flip side, this past winter is hard to comprehend considering the warmer base climate. I mean, Duluth having their coldest winter since 1874-1875 (and it missed by 0.2F) is pretty ridiculous in these times.

[Harry]

Yes, the very warm winters in that period are documented well out in the midwest/upper plains. There's actually some pretty solid wx stations out there that have good records going back to the 1870s or even further. It is a pretty bizarre thing to see on the records as winters of that magnitude in warmth in the upper plains and midwest/lakes were not seen again until very recently.

 

 

The 1877-1878 winter was believed to be a pretty potent El Nino...a big time torch El Nino of course for the plains. Some of the weather stations in MN and WI have that as their warmest winter on record by like 3F+....totally blowing the next closest winter away which for many of those stations is the torch El Nino of 1997-1998. Kind of hard to comprehend considering the colder base climate back then.

 

Then on the flip side, this past winter is hard to comprehend considering the warmer base climate. I mean, Duluth having their coldest winter since 1874-1875 (and it missed by 0.2F) is pretty ridiculous in these times.

 

 

IF i am not mistaken that 1877-1878 was Lansing, MI warmest winter? Reliable data for there back to the 1860s if i recall correctly? I used to have doubts about it till i saw the data from other stations across the region.

[ORH_wxman]

IF i am not mistaken that 1877-1878 was Lansing, MI warmest winter? Reliable data for there back to the 1860s if i recall correctly? I used to have doubts about it till i saw the data from other stations across the region.

 

 

Lansing's warmest winter is actually 1889-1890 but they didn't have records in 1877-1878. But 1877-1878 is the warmest on record for Minneapolis, Chicago, Duluth, and Madison, WI...and its actually not particularly close.

 

Not sure if that winter would get Lansing for warmest anyway since Michigan seemed to be a bit east of the warmest anomalies that winter. Plus they got absolutely torched in 1889-1890 and 1881-1882 moreso than west of them.

 

 

As Michigansnowfreak already said, its a strange period in the records....so many top warmest winters in that region in a fairly short timespan...especially given the base climate. If people like extreme weather now, they would have loved the 1870s-1880s...tons of big hurricane landfalls on the EC and some obscene warmth and obscene cold mixed in.