Great Lakes Ice Cover

[WE GOT HIM]

I think we might have a run at 1977 for most ice cover over the next few weeks. We are off to a good start. Teh record ice should also help water levels (which have been low) so that is a good thing.

 

"Scientists forecast up to 62 percent of the Great Lakes' surface will experience ice cover during the current 2013-14 winter season, up from an average of 51 percent. About 38 percent of the Great Lakes was covered in ice last winter, a dramatic jump from 13 percent during the winter of 2011-12"

 

- http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2014/01/great_lakes_ice_cover_most_in.html

 

Cool Web cams

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/metdata/mkg/

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am not sure how it pertains to climate change.

[AvantHiatus]

I am not sure how it pertains to climate change.

Lolz, looks interesting nonetheless. Even down here in NJ Delaware Bay is trying to freeze up.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looks like the massive ridging is the responsible party.

 

I suppose one could argue the massive record ssta in the region this summer could be partly responsible.  Which would have been enhanced by AGW.

 

 

[AvantHiatus]

This is all you need to see to know that this cold event is more than 50/50 AGW. I think if we observed more Greenland blocking, -NAO type pattern would of caused the PV to just completely separate from the flow and die in the mid-latitudes. 

 

These patterns are counter-intuitive and fool people into a false-sense of security.

 

The process is similar to leaving the refrigerator door open, the cold rushes out and heat seeps in.

 

[WE GOT HIM]

This is all you need to see to know that this cold event is more than 50/50 AGW. I think if we observed more Greenland blocking, -NAO type pattern would of caused the PV to just completely separate from the flow and die in the mid-latitudes. 

 

These patterns are counter-intuitive and fool people into a false-sense of security.

 

The process is similar to leaving the refrigerator door open, the cold rushes out and heat seeps in.

 

 

lol Good analogy... Its going to be fun to watch over the next 3 weeks

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, it looks likely that we may see some of the highest ice coverage on the Great Lakes since the late 70s...certainly 1994 anyway.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I was just saying the EPO is clearly effected by SSTs in the NPAC region.

 

The massive heat dump was aided by AGW. 

 

The radiative forcing change may not be a lot.  But it would help increase the amont of heat that can build up all else being equal during a similiar timeframe.

 

Then you have to take in consideration the slower Westerlies.  Which may not directly mean more ridging but again could add to the time the sun was allowed to bake the NPAC.

 

As well as stronger Southerly flows meaning warmer air from the South as well as water being pumped in around the SLP/HP.  Or just HP when it's a stand alone when the SLPs are not directly West of them.

 

 

 

 

[SVT450R]

This is all you need to see to know that this cold event is more than 50/50 AGW. I think if we observed more Greenland blocking, -NAO type pattern would of caused the PV to just completely separate from the flow and die in the mid-latitudes. 

 

These patterns are counter-intuitive and fool people into a false-sense of security.

 

The process is similar to leaving the refrigerator door open, the cold rushes out and heat seeps in.

 

Care to elaborate at how you come to this conclusion.

[AvantHiatus]

Care to elaborate at how you come to this conclusion.

Due to the fact that we have 2-3 SD negative departures in a world that is much warmer than the 1980's and 1970's. A few years ago the area under the gun was Siberia and now it is North America's turn.

 

Also, 

Alaska and the Yukon warmer than Hawaii

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/

 

[ORH_wxman]

Claiming that this cold is "more than 50/50 AGW" is completely unsupported by anything in the scientific literature, and unsubstantiated by straight statistical tests.

The EPO block may have been reinforced by SSTs in the NE PAC which themselves may have gotten a very small boost from AGW-related feedbacks...however, those factors are miniscule compared to the synoptic natural variability that produces cold outbreaks in the U.S. The EPO block is not a new phenomenon. They happen in almost every one of our extreme cold outbreaks. Their presence fluctuates from decade to decade and that is why years like the 1980s had worse cold outbreaks than the 1950s in the U.S.

[SVT450R]

Due to the fact that we have 2-3 SD negative departures in a world that is much warmer than the 1980's and 1970's. A few years ago the area under the gun was Siberia and now it is North America's turn.

 

Also, 

Alaska and the Yukon warmer than Hawaii

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/

 

We can still break cold records it's just the occurrence of the cold spells will lessen as the earth warms.  It's warmer in Alaska then Hawaii reference is merely hyperbole I'm sure it's not the first time.

[SVT450R]

At the topic at hand i know Ontario is suppose to never freeze over completely has it ever in the past or what year had most cover anybody know?

[WE GOT HIM]

At the topic at hand i know Ontario is suppose to never freeze over completely has it ever in the past or what year had most cover anybody know?

The research I have done suggest it has never completely frozen over. Ground water entering the lake normally keeps that from happening.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Due to the fact that we have 2-3 SD negative departures in a world that is much warmer than the 1980's and 1970's. A few years ago the area under the gun was Siberia and now it is North America's turn.

 

Also, 

Alaska and the Yukon warmer than Hawaii

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

That map is junk.  Just letting you know. Look at the baseline and the fact that it's operational model output.  Here is the corrected data after reanalysis with the 1981-2010 climo.

 

 

You can get them from the same page.  Just look around.  I am honestly not sure what the bloggers point is.  I guess to say we can still have deep cold in winter while the Earth is still warming.

 

 

If we used a baseline of say 2003-2013 instead of 1981-2010 the cold anomalies wouldn't always look so small.  But that would kind of defeat the point of climotology. 

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Due to the fact that we have 2-3 SD negative departures in a world that is much warmer than the 1980's and 1970's. A few years ago the area under the gun was Siberia and now it is North America's turn.

 

Also, 

Alaska and the Yukon warmer than Hawaii

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/

 

 

 

Not really.... 

 

This is a science dealing with tenths of a degree right at the moment.

[AvantHiatus]

That map is junk.  Just letting you know. Look at the baseline and the fact that it's operational model output.  Here is the corrected data after reanalysis with the 1981-2010 climo.

 

 

You can get them from the same page.  Just look around.  I am honestly not sure what the bloggers point is.  I guess to say we can still have deep cold in winter while the Earth is still warming.

 

 

If we used a baseline of say 2003-2013 instead of 1981-2010 the cold anomalies wouldn't always look so small.  But that would kind of defeat the point of climotology. 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry about that, did not even notice. Yeah of course it can still get cold, sub-zero temperatures at 40N might be pushing it these days. I think this cold shot is notably enhanced by AGW, and not simply just because the world is "cold enough".

 

Bluewave made a post awhile back how this EPO block is the most severe and long-lasting on record, clearly there is a AGW signal in that.

[Jonger]

Sorry about that, did not even notice. Yeah of course it can still get cold, sub-zero temperatures at 40N might be pushing it these days. I think this cold shot is notably enhanced by AGW, and not simply just because the world is "cold enough".

 

Bluewave made a post awhile back how this EPO block is the most severe and long-lasting on record, clearly this an AGW signal in that.

 

All cold spells are the result of blocks and other telleconnections... connecting.

 

All....

 

A-L-L.

[blizzard1024]

Claiming that this cold is "more than 50/50 AGW" is completely unsupported by anything in the scientific literature, and unsubstantiated by straight statistical tests.

The EPO block may have been reinforced by SSTs in the NE PAC which themselves may have gotten a very small boost from AGW-related feedbacks...however, those factors are miniscule compared to the synoptic natural variability that produces cold outbreaks in the U.S. The EPO block is not a new phenomenon. They happen in almost every one of our extreme cold outbreaks. Their presence fluctuates from decade to decade and that is why years like the 1980s had worse cold outbreaks than the 1950s in the U.S.

 

I agree with your assertions. Claiming that the current cold winter in a large part of the CONUS is related to AGW is baseless. This is an interesting and relevant thread because it shows how short term climatic variability is much larger than any small warming trend we have seen (that ceased in the late 1990s). Winters now are not MUCH warmer than the 1970s and 80s as was stated in one post. The 850 mb temperature difference from recent winters vs winters 30 years ago shows some warming but it small compared to year to year climatic variability. It will be interesting to see if we are at the cusp of much colder winters and temperatures over the coming decades, just like we were in the 1950s. Or does the climate resume warming again?  We live in interesting times...

[SVT450R]

The research I have done suggest it has never completely frozen over. Ground water entering the lake normally keeps that from happening.

I did a little search myself per Environment Canada since 1972 the winter of 76/77 had the most ice cover for Ontario.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Anyways back to tying this topic to AGW.  If we can't then it doesn't belong here.  But we probably can. 

 

The reason for this situation is pattern persistence in the North Pacific. 

 

To tie it to AGW would have to be tied to cause.  SSTA and weather patterns remind me of the chicken and the egg arguement.  I would assume there are correlation studies done to try and see which party holds more responsibility.

 

If the NPAC is normal or below but then a pattern sets up that  changes it to warm at the surface.  At which point does the heat in the water from the intial pattern change start having a feedback effect on the pattern it self. 

 

I think part of that would lie in how much heat was dumped into the upper layers of the ocean in the region.  If in fact a region of well above normal OHC(ssta) would promote persistent ridging. 

 

Which I am not sure how that would work.  We have seen the ridge move or break down and colder temps, lower albedo, colder rain water, and water churning from SLPs come for a few days or so but it's not enough to cool the upper layers of the NPAC. 

 

The last 52 days have seen a remarkable ridge almost hold the entire time.

 

For the OHC during OND.  The upper ocean heat starts to lower below 50M.  Above 30M it's pretty much even to the surface.  This is an indication that the heat is mostly from solar insolation that started to build as the ridging became more predominant during Summer. 

 

 

So aresols would be confined to the tropics for the most part.  Considering the aeresol/soot from US/EU/Russia that effected the mid to upper lats during the 1930-1990 period has nearly completely gone away.  So radiative forcing over the NH oceans from 30-60N is the strongest on Earth that directly influences an ocean outside of the arctic which is frozeen.

 

 

So we can definitely expect these large HP cells that promote sunshine and drive Southerly winds around their West side which in the case of the NEPAC comes from warmer water region.

 

All in all I'd say there is likely a feedback process that is partial enhanced by increased radiative forcing allowing more heat uptake.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Friv, your argument would make more sense if OHC had risen in the Pacific ocean recently...but it hasn't. It has been flat since ARGO has been tracking it. The upper layer of OHC increase in that region of the N PAC looks to be a product of the pattern and not a cause of it.

 

Also, there has been no trend in North Pacific SSTs in the past 20 years. It is true that when the waters warm, they can act as a bit of a self-feedback into the pattern. Kind of like snow cover helping keep a colder pattern in place...but its far from the dominant factor.

 

Once again, there is nothing new about EPO blocks. They happen in almost every single cold outbreak.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv, your argument would make more sense if OHC had risen in the Pacific ocean recently...but it hasn't. It has been flat since ARGO has been tracking it. The upper layer of OHC increase in that region of the N PAC looks to be a product of the pattern and not a cause of it.

 

Also, there has been no trend in North Pacific SSTs in the past 20 years. It is true that when the waters warm, they can act as a bit of a self-feedback into the pattern. Kind of like snow cover helping keep a colder pattern in place...but its far from the dominant factor.

 

Once again, there is nothing new about EPO blocks. They happen in almost every single cold outbreak.

 

Nothing you are saying is being challenged or beind disputed. 

 

But I doubt it is a coincidence that we are setting ssta records in parts of the NATL and NPAC and simultaenously having record "blocking" "or "heights".

 

 

I scoured through the 30 and 50 meter charts for OHC and the OND period of 2013 is by far the highest.  It might only be a small effect which is all I am arguing that is if ssta/ohc in the upper levels have helped persistence.

 

 

If not then this thread shouldn't even be in this forum.  Because the lakes being frozen over would have no tie to AGW without there being a connection to higher OHC uptake helping cause a feedback in keeping ridiging more persistent than it normally would.

 

 

Doesn't heat tranfer drive atmospheric patterns?

[blizzard1024]

Nothing you are saying is being challenged or beind disputed. 

 

But I doubt it is a coincidence that we are setting ssta records in parts of the NATL and NPAC and simultaenously having record "blocking" "or "heights".

 

 

I scoured through the 30 and 50 meter charts for OHC and the OND period of 2013 is by far the highest.  It might only be a small effect which is all I am arguing that is if ssta/ohc in the upper levels have helped persistence.

 

 

If not then this thread shouldn't even be in this forum.  Because the lakes being frozen over would have no tie to AGW without there being a connection to higher OHC uptake helping cause a feedback in keeping ridiging more persistent than it normally would.

 

 

Doesn't heat tranfer drive atmospheric patterns?

who said this forum is on AGW? it is about climate change. Climate is always changing and we are discussing short term climate variability as well as interannual variability and decadal variability. CO2 is a very very small part of the climate system. There are many other much more important factors than influence the climate naturally on these shorter times scales. Just because it is cold or warm somewhere does NOT mean that AGW has anything to do with it. This is getting borderline ridiculous. Everything has to have a cause and somehow it is pinned on mankind and CO2. where is the common sense here?  There have been extremes going on for millions of years without any interference of man. We are seeing the Earth's climate system vary from week to week, month to month and decade to decade. thats all. 

[Jonger]

who said this forum is on AGW? it is about climate change. Climate is always changing and we are discussing short term climate variability as well as interannual variability and decadal variability. CO2 is a very very small part of the climate system. There are many other much more important factors than influence the climate naturally on these shorter times scales. Just because it is cold or warm somewhere does NOT mean that AGW has anything to do with it. This is getting borderline ridiculous. Everything has to have a cause and somehow it is pinned on mankind and CO2. where is the common sense here? There have been extremes going on for millions of years without any interference of man. We are seeing the Earth's climate system vary from week to week, month to month and decade to decade. thats all.

Being a weather forum, it should just be 'Climate", which could easily encapsulate both interests.

The lakes typically don't freeze this much and havent during the satellite era, possibly only one year since the 1970's has had a higher ice coverage.

This isn't typical climate for the lakes during the era of GOOD data on the lakes. That's interesting enough for this forum. Terry made a big deal out of 2011-2012 winter ice coverage, which bucked the previous 10 years of colder than normal winters in the lakes region. Why not now?

[ORH_wxman]

Blizzard1024 is right...this doesn't have to be about AGW. Climate changes due to natural variability too.

 

 

For the record, I agree there is probably a very small AGW component in the SSTs that have occurred under the block. I think the main take-home point though is that it is so small, its basically irrelevant in the discussion of why the cold has been here this winter. There just isn't great evidence of the attribution of blocking to AGW yet.

 

Maybe this doesn't belong in the climate change forum....but then again maybe it does if we are discussing frequency of lake ice in context to this event. How often do lakes get this much ice cover and is there a decadal fluctuation to the types of patterns involved?

[blizzard1024]

Being a weather forum, it should just be 'Climate", which could easily encapsulate both interests.

The lakes typically don't freeze this much and havent during the satellite era, possibly only one year since the 1970's has had a higher ice coverage.

This isn't typical climate for the lakes during the era of GOOD data on the lakes. That's interesting enough for this forum. Terry made a big deal out of 2011-2012 winter ice coverage, which bucked the previous 10 years of colder than normal winters in the lakes region. Why not now?

 

Being a weather forum, it should just be 'Climate", which could easily encapsulate both interests.

The lakes typically don't freeze this much and havent during the satellite era, possibly only one year since the 1970's has had a higher ice coverage.

This isn't typical climate for the lakes during the era of GOOD data on the lakes. That's interesting enough for this forum. Terry made a big deal out of 2011-2012 winter ice coverage, which bucked the previous 10 years of colder than normal winters in the lakes region. Why not now?

 

If it was breaking records for the least ice...this forum would be a buzz. It is as if people want the climate to warm and

go to hell.  they are rooting for heat and record warmth and the destruction of ecosystems etc. That's sick in my opinion. Its like a meteorologist rooting for a hurricane to destroy a city. I am sure there have been a few who have done this. but it is still sick in my opinion. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Everytime it's about something warm you guys throw a fit.

 

Trying to rationalize this being relevent here outside of the possible link to more blocking is ridiculous at best.

 

This a weather related phenomenom.  The ridiculous blocking has helped cause persistent cold.

 

 

It's not even comparable to some of the historic cold out breaks.

 

If it was breaking records for the least ice...this forum would be a buzz. It is as if people want the climate to warm and

go to hell.  they are rooting for heat and record warmth and the destruction of ecosystems etc. That's sick in my opinion. Its like a meteorologist rooting for a hurricane to destroy a city. I am sure there have been a few who have done this. but it is still sick in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

Or maybe the status of ice formation on fresh water innercontenential lakes at 42-50N which only need to be in persistent cold and no where near record cold to freeze over substansially means ******* nothing in terms of climate change. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I wrote out why it's happened.  when was the last year over a 52 day period from Dec 1st to Jan 21st was there a block like that over the NEPAC?

 

I am going to guess never and it's not that close?
 

I honestly don't know.  So I would appreciate if someone could post the nearest years to this.

 

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just off the top of my head, the 1957 block was similar in magnitude...I am sure there are others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In fact, it is more impressive than the current one since those height anomalies are still being produced against the 1981-2010 baseline in a colder world.