harrisale Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 One thing to note is that any given set of years doesn't 'skew' the data. Observations are observations and all play into long-term climate averages. There's no such thing as trying "to get the average snowfall back up". The definition of 'normal' should always be a reflection of the long term average, and the more data you have, the better, regardless of the fact that a bunch of consecutive winters seem out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 10 years ago today was an incredible LenhS event for the west side of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 10 years ago today was an incredible LenhS event for the west side of Toronto. I remember that vividly. That was just incredible. Strom total here was like around 18'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I remember that vividly. That was just incredible. Strom total here was like around 18'' Answer my question here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42324-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion-part-2/?p=2681680 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Models have taken a turn for the worse today. Looks like the clipper intensifies only after passing the GTA right over lake Ontario. Another NY state special. My final call is a synoptic 2-3cm from Hamilton to Scarborough, with 5-7cm for Ottawa Blizzard and Snowstorms. The system moving in next weekend looks pretty crummy, too; as of now, it looks only slightly better than the system moving through today. I'd say a synoptic 5cm for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Models have taken a turn for the worse today. Looks like the clipper intensifies only after passing the GTA right over lake Ontario. Another NY state special. My final call is a synoptic 2-3cm from Hamilton to Scarborough, with 5-7cm for Ottawa Blizzard and Snowstorms. The system moving in next weekend looks pretty crummy, too; as of now, it looks only slightly better than the system moving through today. I'd say a synoptic 5cm for next weekend Snowstorms is in Vaughan. Why does he get extra snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Diminishing returns on Exeter radar not filling me with confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 To OB, temps didn't drop as much as you expected because winds stayed too strong to allow for good radiational cooling. YYZ recorded 4.2cm yesterday, lol. Maybe they disposed the Nipher? LOL. Its a reasonable number given the consistent blowing snow yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snowstorms is in Vaughan. Why does he get extra snow? Gut feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 YYZ recorded 4.2cm yesterday, lol. Maybe they disposed the Nipher? LOL. Its a reasonable number given the consistent blowing snow yesterday. + 0.6cm on 1/24 so a total of 4.8cm. That does seem reasonable. Maybe a bit low but not as bad as it could have been with winds like those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gut feeling I would have been a dick and answered slant sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snowstorms is in Vaughan. Why does he get extra snow? LOOL. He's to generous. I dont think anyone in the GTA will get more than 5cm from this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I would have been a dick and answered slant sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting. We have only some ragged, cruddy returns to our west but Hamilton is down to 800m visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting. We have only some ragged, cruddy returns to our west but Hamilton is down to 800m visibility. The radar doesn't look that impressive. Any webcams around the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The radar doesn't look that impressive. Any webcams around the area? http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/traveller/trip/ Not seeing a ton of corroboration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am somewhat more optimistic as it appears that the low is reorganizing further back to the west and there could be some bursts of lake effect in southeast winds ahead of the pseudo-warm front feature that will form overnight. Really would not be surprised if your low end forecasts verify but I do see potential for 10-15 cm in a rather patchy outcome, some locations are bound to get very little too. The main interest with this one is the cold advection squall period Monday mid-day to late Tuesday. This may create near blizzard conditions in the Lake Huron and Georgian Bay snow belts, new snowfall amounts may vary from 10 to 40 cm and severe blowing and drifting seems certain with so much already on the ground and such cold temperatures. Also the large expanses of ice on Lake Huron-Ggn Bay will reduce friction for strong W-NW winds but there is still enough open water to create squalls and also an eastern Lake Superior connection likely to form. For the Toronto crew, heaviest snow not likely to arrive until after midnight, the current batch in southwestern ON will probably edge across to Niagara and w NY then feed into the later developments around the pseudo-warm front that will probably reach southern Lake Ontario and stall out with an occlusion feature developing further west. Max temp forecasts for Toronto may bust high as a result. I don't know what they're saying officially but it may never get much higher than -6 at YYZ. Low track not as important as arctic wave track in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can't tell if it's synoptic or LES but there appears to be some enhanced returns developing right along the Toronto shoreline from Humber Bay easterly to the Beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The Waterloo Airport reported 11cm of snow Fri-Sat bringing our seasonal total to 106cm / 41.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Weak synoptic --SN is moving W to E. Enhanced returns are moving S to N. I do think that is in fact LES. Coming down at a moderate clip per the highway cams on the DVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Had a quick burst of SN about 5-10 minutes ago. Now making our way down to mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Full blown SN now. Pouring snow as the LE band is shifting NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Absolutely gorgeous outside. Intensity hovers on the -SN/SN lines, looks very pretty. Winds really beginning to gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 synoptic so far has been epically lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 synoptic so far has been epically lame. Other than that 30 or so minutes of LES a couple of hours ago, it has been --SN. Mood flakes. My 2-3cm call is probably a good one, may even bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Special weather statement for the GTA has been removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Special weather statement for the GTA has been removed. Only for the the city of Toronto..... Still in effect for York, Durham, Halton, and Peel Regions. :? SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:36 PM EST SUNDAY 26 JANUARY 2014.--------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT SARNIA - LAMBTON ELGIN LONDON - MIDDLESEX SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND OXFORD - BRANT NIAGARA CITY OF HAMILTON HALTON - PEEL YORK - DURHAM HURON - PERTH WATERLOO - WELLINGTON DUFFERIN - INNISFIL GREY - BRUCE BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LOCAL BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT, MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED FOR: CITY OF TORONTO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Only for the the city of Toronto..... Still in effect for York, Durham, Halton, and Peel Regions. :? SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:36 PM EST SUNDAY 26 JANUARY 2014.--------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR: WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT SARNIA - LAMBTON ELGIN LONDON - MIDDLESEX SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND OXFORD - BRANT NIAGARA CITY OF HAMILTON HALTON - PEEL YORK - DURHAM HURON - PERTH WATERLOO - WELLINGTON DUFFERIN - INNISFIL GREY - BRUCE BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD. REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN LOCAL BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT, MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED FOR: CITY OF TORONTO. wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 wtf? Lol. LE band moving back in now... exeter returns looking nice and headed for the GTA. Were golden for more then 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 wtf? Classic EC, LOL. I think they need new equipment and new employees. They've been awful in the past few years and have lost alot of credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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