Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion

[WestCoaster]

Ha look how much better that arctic squall organized as soon as it headed out over the lake:

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Near 50 in EDM today? Incredible

 

Probably the last time until May. After a bit of reading I'm going out to enjoy it!

[on_wx]

Not a clue how much snow fell here, will wait for the airport to say, but it could be more than 10cm. Rob Kuhn says 8cm in Kitchener as of 6am.

 

GRT bus stranded in Cambridge: pic.twitter.com/eozMdpm0xW

8-12 foot drifts in KW:pic.twitter.com/Rc1ILS4cVo

[YHM Supercell]

Not a clue how much snow fell here, will wait for the airport to say, but it could be more than 10cm. Rob Kuhn says 8cm in Kitchener as of 6am.

 

GRT bus stranded in Cambridge: pic.twitter.com/eozMdpm0xW

8-12 foot drifts in KW:pic.twitter.com/Rc1ILS4cVo

Similar here. Book road, which is about a 5 minute drive from me is perpendicular to the SW winds, and when I went there this morning the plowed snow banks were the height of the stop signs...>5ft at least. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I really and truly doubt you got that much snow. For you to go with that number it should be your average measurement (highest spots had 15cm, lowest spots had 3 cm). And if you're measuring on your driveway, you'd have to do these measurements well away from your roof, towards the sidewalk.

Fair enough. I definitely got more that an inch though. I'll say 5cm.

[blizzardof96]

Measured an average of 6.5cm from this event(most spots away from the house were in the 8-11cm range but lowballed it just in case). Trekked through some 18-20" drifts in a local ravine this morning. I'll take it to the bank.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Hoping the temperature drops soon. Want to be in the minus teens by midnight to help towards the monthly mean temperature.

[on_wx]

Hamilton Township in Northumberland County has declared a state of emergency

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Really impressive arctic front I have to say. Went for walk in the park and the winds were bone chilling, yet there were still a few people toboganning. Down to -11c.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Hamilton Township in Northumberland County has declared a state of emergency

Due to blowing snow?

[blizzardof96]

Really impressive arctic front I have to say. Went for walk in the park and the winds were bone chilling, yet there were still a few people toboganning. Down to -11c.

Thinking EC busts high on their -17c call for tonight. We've been cooling at ~2c an hour, and although rates should drop off later, the fresh snow cover should bring us into the -19 to -20c range IMO.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Thinking EC busts high on their -17c call for tonight. We've been cooling at ~2c an hour, and although rates should drop off later, the fresh snow cover should bring us into the -19 to -20c range IMO.

I agree. They have Markham down to minus 20 tonight. Thinking we might be able to make minus 22.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Incredible temperature drop in Ottawa from -6 to -16 in just two hours. Winds now gusting to 60 km/hour, wind chill -30!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Thinking EC busts high on their -17c call for tonight. We've been cooling at ~2c an hour, and although rates should drop off later, the fresh snow cover should bring us into the -19 to -20c range IMO.

Temperature seem stuck at -14. Hopefully we can pull it down a bit more later tonight.

[Toronto4]

Last summer, Environment Canada released the 1981-2010 climate normals. They are not yet available in a web-friendly format, but they can be viewed here:

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html#1981

 

Click on the link where indicated.

 

For Toronto Pearson Airport (YYZ):

 

Mean Temperature (degrees C)

 

Jan  -5.5

Feb  -4.5

Mar  0.1

Apr  7.1

May  13.1

Jun  18.6

Jul  21.5

Aug  20.6

Sep  16.2

Oct  9.5

Nov  3.7

Dec  -2.2

YEAR  8.2

 

 

Snowfall (cm) 

 

Jan   29.5

Feb  24.0

Mar  17.7

Apr  4.5

May  Trace

Oct  0.4 

Nov  7.5

Dec  24.9

YEAR  108.5

 

 

Also, the new snowfall average for downtown Toronto is 121.5 cm.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Last summer, Environment Canada released the 1981-2010 climate normals. They are not yet available in a web-friendly format, but they can be viewed here:

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html#1981

 

Click on the link where indicated.

 

For Toronto Pearson Airport (YYZ):

 

Mean Temperature (degrees C)

 

Jan  -5.5

Feb  -4.5

Mar  0.1

Apr  7.1

May  13.1

Jun  18.6

Jul  21.5

Aug  20.6

Sep  16.2

Oct  9.5

Nov  3.7

Dec  -2.2

YEAR  8.2

 

 

Snowfall (cm) 

 

Jan   29.5

Feb  24.0

Mar  17.7

Apr  4.5

May  Trace

Oct  0.4 

Nov  7.5

Dec  24.9

YEAR  108.5

 

 

Also, the new snowfall average for downtown Toronto is 121.5 cm.

 

Wonder what's taking EC so long to get these numbers up into a digestible format? Luckily somebody had posted the extracted 1981-2010 values to wikipedia earlier last year.

 

Pearson lost about 7cm off its annual snowfall average. Downtown about 12cm.

[Toronto4]

Wonder what's taking EC so long to get these numbers up into a digestible format? Luckily somebody had posted the extracted 1981-2010 values to wikipedia earlier last year.

 

Pearson lost about 7cm off its annual snowfall average. Downtown about 12cm.

 

 

I'm guessing budget restraints. For those wondering about the wikipedia link with the new averages, here it is:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto

 

Under statistics. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Wonder what's taking EC so long to get these numbers up into a digestible format? Luckily somebody had posted the extracted 1981-2010 values to wikipedia earlier last year.

 

Pearson lost about 7cm off its annual snowfall average. Downtown about 12cm.

Well, maybe once we go into a different phase of the AMO, the average will go up again.

[Snowstorms]

Wonder what's taking EC so long to get these numbers up into a digestible format? Luckily somebody had posted the extracted 1981-2010 values to wikipedia earlier last year.

 

Pearson lost about 7cm off its annual snowfall average. Downtown about 12cm.

 

The 80s and early 90s had some awful winters which sort of skewed up the average. What we need now is a string of above normal Winters to bring that average back up. Since the PDO shifted, this is how the Winters have played out in terms of snowfall; 

 

2007-08: Above normal 

08-09: Above normal

09-10: Below normal

10-11: Above normal

11-12: Dont remind me! 

12-13: near normal

 

However, despite these statistics, the number of snowstorms (>15cm) has declined considerably since 2008-09. 

 

Lets see how the next few Winters play out! 

[Snowstorms]

The latest GFS looks intriguing for next weekend. Still a week out but its definitely up for grabs. 

[snowstormcanuck]

The 80s and early 90s had some awful winters which sort of skewed up the average. What we need now is a string of above normal Winters to bring that average back up. Since the PDO shifted, this is how the Winters have played out in terms of snowfall; 

 

2007-08: Above normal 

08-09: Above normal

09-10: Below normal

10-11: Above normal

11-12: Dont remind me! 

12-13: near normal

 

However, despite these statistics, the number of snowstorms (>15cm) has declined considerably since 2008-09. 

 

Lets see how the next few Winters play out! 

 

This century has had way more awful winters than the 1990s and 80s. 2001-02, 2009-10, 2011-12, 32.4cm falling in all of calendar year 2006 at YYZ. I mean those are some hideous winters that don't have a lot of competition in the 1980s or 1990s. The 1980s and 90s weren't as snowy as the very snowy 1970s but they, to me at least, represented a return to about normal winters. It's been the last 15 years or so where we've fallen off a cliff. So if anything has "skewed" the numbers it's been the addition of decade 2001-10 (as well as losing the snowy 70s).

[Ottawa Blizzard]

This century has had way more awful winters than the 1990s and 80s. 2001-02, 2009-10, 2011-12, 32.4cm falling in all of calendar year 2006 at YYZ. I mean those are some hideous winters that don't have a lot of competition in the 1980s or 1990s. The 1980s and 90s weren't as snowy as the very snowy 1970s but they, to me at least, represented a return to about normal winters. It's been the last 15 years or so where we've fallen off a cliff. So if anything has "skewed" the numbers it's been the addition of decade 2001-10 (as well as losing the snowy 70s).

I agree with this. We've had some good winters this century, with 2002-2003, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and this one likely being the standout ones, whether it be for snow or cold. This winter, as well as those of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 are the only three this century which have been steady from mid November on. 2002-2003 had a warm December.

[snowstormcanuck]

I agree with this. We've had some good winters this century, with 2002-2003, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and this one likely being the standout ones, whether it be for snow or cold. This winter, as well as those of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 are the only three this century which have been steady from mid November on. 2002-2003 had a warm December.

 

I'm pretty sure EC calculates snowfall averages based on calendar year snowfall rather than seasonal snowfall. Here's some sobering stats. In the 61 winters prior to 2000 at YYZ the number of years that finished below 50cm of snow: 0. In the 14 years since: 3.

 

Can't blame the 80s and 90s.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm pretty sure EC calculates snowfall averages based on calendar year snowfall rather than seasonal snowfall. Here's some sobering stats. In the 61 winters prior to 2000 at YYZ the number of years that finished below 50cm of snow: 0. In the 14 years since: 3.

 

Can't blame the 80s and 90s.

So what do you think the reason is? Are Al Gore, David Suzuki and Neil Young on to something? If so, why are Detroit and Chicago doing so well? In fact, winters in the US seem to be getting colder and snowier, even in cities that aren't far from us.

Bear in mind, also, that Pearson's method of measuring snow is an insult to the meteorological profession.

[snowstormcanuck]

So what do you think the reason is? Are Al Gore, David Suzuki and Neil Young on to something? If so, why are Detroit and Chicago doing so well? In fact, winters in the US seem to be getting colder and snowier, even in cities that aren't far from us.

Bear in mind, also, that Pearson's method of measuring snow is an insult to the meteorological profession.

 

Honestly, don't know. Probably just extremely bad luck. Might have something to do with long-term teleconnections (like the PDO). GW is another convenient answer, but you make a good point about how this sharp decline has been pretty localized. Seems to rule that out.

 

Can't blame the nipher though because downtown has been declining at about the same rate as Pearson has.  

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Honestly, don't know. Probably just extremely bad luck. Might have something to do with long-term teleconnections (like the PDO). GW is another convenient answer, but you make a good point about how this sharp decline has been pretty localized. Seems to rule that out.

 

Can't blame the nipher though because downtown has been declining at about the same rate as Pearson has.

I wish downtown still provided temperature observations. I checked EC data and that seemed to have stopped in 2006 after having been reported since 1839.

[snowstormcanuck]

I wish downtown still provided temperature observations. I checked EC data and that seemed to have stopped in 2006 after having been reported since 1839.

 

Temperature data for downtown is now reported under the "Toronto City" station. Still at the U of T. I think they changed the location of the equipment just slightly which necessitated a new site ID.

[Roger Smith]

Yes, the old location of Toronto (city) was on Bloor St W at the building immediately west of Varsity Stadium. That was believe it or not the headquarters of the Dominion of Canada Meteorological Service up until 1968 or so, after which it moved out to the Downsview facility. The new site is probably the complex that I noticed on my recent walkabout in September, behind Trinity College to the southeast of Varsity Stadium, so it has moved about one quarter mile southeast and into a more open grassy environment. The old location was getting increasingly surrounded by large buildings. The Toronto City weather records up to about 1908 were taken on the university campus about a half mile south of the later location. From 1840 to about 1885 this was rural then boundary farmland, which largely explains the obvious rise in nocturnal temperatures into the 1890s and 1900s. I think the growth of downtown Toronto probably distorted the lake breeze climatology also. The new location might be something like 0.2 to 0.4 C cooler than the previous location due to more shading and less urban contamination.

 

This is deep trivia, but the rainfall data for June 1, 1969 are courtesy of yours truly filling in for the regular observer (student perk) and at the same time watching a big soccer game for free over the bleachers in the old Varsity Stadium, Pele was in attendance (I think playing for a New York based team, this is a rather hazy memory now). They even had a sunshine recorder on the roof of that building, which was at one point also a geomagnetic observatory. All of those ancient 1840s hand-written daily records that are now in the EC library were in the basement of that building. Actually, I don't know if the building is still there with all that construction going on beside Varsity Stadium, maybe it has been torn down. It looked a bit like a castle and/or barracks with a round tower, the sunshine recorder was on top of that.

[snowstormcanuck]

To OB,

 

temps didn't drop as much as you expected because winds stayed too strong to allow for good radiational cooling.

[blizzardof96]

Nice little LE band ready to come onshore near trenton as the SE flow intensifies around the clipper. Expecting some Lehs once the synoptic stuff arrives between pickering and cobourg. I'm liking my 2-5cm call for Toronto, with 3-8cm once you get east of oshawa along the 401.  Been getting hammered out there lately.