snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think Toronto Pearson has a chance of equaling or surpassing January 2009 for cold. Our current mean is -8.1 Celsius, versus -8.8 Celsius in 2009 and -9.4 Celsius in 2004. January 1994 will remain the king, with a mean of -12.4 Celsius, followed by January 1945, with a mean of -11.9 Celsius, January 1977 at -11.7 Celsius, January 1981 at -10.2 Celsius and January 1982 at -10.1 Celsius. Wow! Those winters of the late 70s/early 80s were something else! People are panicking today, but two severely cold Januaries in a row in the early 80s! I always get a kick out of looking at how the mean annual temps at Pearson changed over time. Up until 1998, YYZ never had a mean temp above 9C. Usually it would fall between 7-8C, sometimes a bit warmer, sometimes a bit cooler. In fact, there was a 25 year stretch from 1962 to 1986 where the mean temp was never above 8C. Then in 1998, 10.1c. And we've only been below 8c once since (2003, and just barely at 7.9c). Now annual temps routinely go above 9C when before 1998, it was unheard of! I've heard UHI and AGW explanations for this but you'd think the transition would be more gradual in either case. It's like 1998 opened up Pandora's box of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I always get a kick out of looking at how the mean annual temps at Pearson changed over time. Up until 1998, YYZ never had a mean temp above 9C. Usually it would fall between 7-8C, sometimes a bit warmer, sometimes a bit cooler. In fact, there was a 25 year stretch from 1962 to 1986 where the mean temp was never above 8C. Then in 1998, 10.1c. And we've only been below 8c once since (2003, and just barely at 7.9c). Now annual temps routinely go above 9C when before 1998, it was unheard of! I've heard UHI and AGW explanations for this but you'd think the transition would be more gradual in either case. It's like 1998 opened up Pandora's box of warmth. That's true, but there's been a trend towards some colder winters now. Interesting how Detroit's climo is so different. They haven't experienced nearly the amount of warming as Pearson has. I sometimes think it's because that Pearson is in a heavily urbanized area now when, up until the 70s, it was close to fields and farmland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 One of the reasons why I prefer living in the suburbs as opposed to downtown. It's a concrete jungle down there, not a lot of green space, apart from High Park of course. I could not live south of Bloor for that reason. I live (primarily) next to the Don Valley so I don't feel quite in the concrete jungle. I also have a shared place near Casa Loma which has some decent green space. Still not snowing here. My grass is greener than it has been all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Squall line along the cold front is dissipating nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I always get a kick out of looking at how the mean annual temps at Pearson changed over time. Up until 1998, YYZ never had a mean temp above 9C. Usually it would fall between 7-8C, sometimes a bit warmer, sometimes a bit cooler. In fact, there was a 25 year stretch from 1962 to 1986 where the mean temp was never above 8C. Then in 1998, 10.1c. And we've only been below 8c once since (2003, and just barely at 7.9c). Now annual temps routinely go above 9C when before 1998, it was unheard of! I've heard UHI and AGW explanations for this but you'd think the transition would be more gradual in either case. It's like 1998 opened up Pandora's box of warmth. I don't have twitter, but still follow some meteorologist's tweets and I've noticed that Chris St. Clair of TWN is fully in the AGW camp while Anthony Farnell is a skeptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Squall line along the cold front is dissipating nicely Really, it looks fairly robust to me, approaching Kitchener now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's true, but there's been a trend towards some colder winters now. Interesting how Detroit's climo is so different. They haven't experienced nearly the amount of warming as Pearson has. I sometimes think it's because that Pearson is in a heavily urbanized area now when, up until the 70s, it was close to fields and farmland. That may explain the slight warming that occurred in the 1980s, but it doesn't explain the anomalous jump in temps we've seen from the late 1990s on. I wonder if it's a non-meteorological explanation (like obs. equipment). We've been surprised with the nipher. Maybe EC tried to reinvent the thermometer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am going to speculate 10-15 cm snowfalls for most, 20-40 in some snow belt regions, from the Sunday-Monday system. What's the word on the street? Track looks good for several hours of moderate snow from the over-running Pacific warmth that will be locked into this system around the 516-528 dm thickness ribbon (aloft). Surface warm advection will be feeble and intense cold will quickly wrap into the departing west to northwest flow of the event, producing some intense squall bands just north of London to Woodstock, and parallel to that further north with another very strong squall band likely to cover most of Simcoe County and northern parts of York Region. Given the snowfalls now until then, some 30-50 cm snow depths may be developing during the coldest and windiest portions of the aftermath and Tuesday sees a reinforcement of squall potential from a rotating trough and renewed wind gusts above 80 km/hr. While things may remain manageable in the GTA, most of southwestern and central Ontario will have a prolonged storm (as I recall, the local expression when squalls and high winds hit is "it's storming out") and there could be instances of long-duration road closures and more people getting stranded. Like you're saying, this winter is somewhat of a throwback to what was once more or less normal in the colder period of the late 70s and early 80s. It's not that similar to 1994 structurally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That may explain the slight warming that occurred in the 1980s, but it doesn't explain the anomalous jump in temps we've seen from the late 1990s on. I wonder if it's a non-meteorological explanation (like obs. equipment). We've been surprised with the nipher. Maybe EC tried to reinvent the thermometer as well. Joking aside, you never know. It just seems that southern Ontario and Quebec have seen more warming than areas all around us. It's interesting how that fits into country's biases. Most Canadians tend to believe the AGW theory and are big supporters of David Suzuki and Al Gore. Go into the U.S. and people are more skeptical, which is no surprise given the data down there. Just talk to Michigansnowfreak and he'll tell you that the 50s were just as snowless as the late 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am going to speculate 10-15 cm snowfalls for most, 20-40 in some snow belt regions, from the Sunday-Monday system. What's the word on the street? Track looks good for several hours of moderate snow from the over-running Pacific warmth that will be locked into this system around the 516-528 dm thickness ribbon (aloft). Surface warm advection will be feeble and intense cold will quickly wrap into the departing west to northwest flow of the event, producing some intense squall bands just north of London to Woodstock, and parallel to that further north with another very strong squall band likely to cover most of Simcoe County and northern parts of York Region. Given the snowfalls now until then, some 30-50 cm snow depths may be developing during the coldest and windiest portions of the aftermath and Tuesday sees a reinforcement of squall potential from a rotating trough and renewed wind gusts above 80 km/hr. While things may remain manageable in the GTA, most of southwestern and central Ontario will have a prolonged storm (as I recall, the local expression when squalls and high winds hit is "it's storming out") and there could be instances of long-duration road closures and more people getting stranded. Like you're saying, this winter is somewhat of a throwback to what was once more or less normal in the colder period of the late 70s and early 80s. It's not that similar to 1994 structurally. Appreciate your input Roger. You have been busting left, right, and centre with these ambitious calls lately though. Maybe it's time to rein it in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am going to speculate 10-15 cm snowfalls for most, 20-40 in some snow belt regions, from the Sunday-Monday system. What's the word on the street? Track looks good for several hours of moderate snow from the over-running Pacific warmth that will be locked into this system around the 516-528 dm thickness ribbon (aloft). Surface warm advection will be feeble and intense cold will quickly wrap into the departing west to northwest flow of the event, producing some intense squall bands just north of London to Woodstock, and parallel to that further north with another very strong squall band likely to cover most of Simcoe County and northern parts of York Region. Given the snowfalls now until then, some 30-50 cm snow depths may be developing during the coldest and windiest portions of the aftermath and Tuesday sees a reinforcement of squall potential from a rotating trough and renewed wind gusts above 80 km/hr. While things may remain manageable in the GTA, most of southwestern and central Ontario will have a prolonged storm (as I recall, the local expression when squalls and high winds hit is "it's storming out") and there could be instances of long-duration road closures and more people getting stranded. Like you're saying, this winter is somewhat of a throwback to what was once more or less normal in the colder period of the late 70s and early 80s. It's not that similar to 1994 structurally. I think most are calling for ~5 cm on Sunday-Monday for the GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I am going to speculate 10-15 cm snowfalls for most, 20-40 in some snow belt regions, from the Sunday-Monday system. What's the word on the street? Track looks good for several hours of moderate snow from the over-running Pacific warmth that will be locked into this system around the 516-528 dm thickness ribbon (aloft). Surface warm advection will be feeble and intense cold will quickly wrap into the departing west to northwest flow of the event, producing some intense squall bands just north of London to Woodstock, and parallel to that further north with another very strong squall band likely to cover most of Simcoe County and northern parts of York Region. Given the snowfalls now until then, some 30-50 cm snow depths may be developing during the coldest and windiest portions of the aftermath and Tuesday sees a reinforcement of squall potential from a rotating trough and renewed wind gusts above 80 km/hr. While things may remain manageable in the GTA, most of southwestern and central Ontario will have a prolonged storm (as I recall, the local expression when squalls and high winds hit is "it's storming out") and there could be instances of long-duration road closures and more people getting stranded. Like you're saying, this winter is somewhat of a throwback to what was once more or less normal in the colder period of the late 70s and early 80s. It's not that similar to 1994 structurally. Roger, Environment Canada seems really underdone with their temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, calling for highs of minus 12. They never seem bullish on cold until it's right on top of us. For example, they were originally calling for a high of minus 8 for January 7th. Then, as we got closer, the numbers got colder until they called for a high of minus 18. Yet, the Euro was calling for cold of that magnitude days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think most are calling for ~5 cm on Sunday-Monday for the GTA That's a reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Sunny with snow flying everywhere right now. Hurts the eyes, wish I brought sunglasses. Sitting in an open area awaiting the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just went outside to shovel and measured 7.4cm. I observed 10 different spots that I cleared away yesterday and my final number was 7.4cm. The drifts are incredible! It has stopped snowing in my area, but nice little storm nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Joking aside, you never know. It just seems that southern Ontario and Quebec have seen more warming than areas all around us. It's interesting how that fits into country's biases. Most Canadians tend to believe the AGW theory and are big supporters of David Suzuki and Al Gore. Go into the U.S. and people are more skeptical, which is no surprise given the data down there. Just talk to Michigansnowfreak and he'll tell you that the 50s were just as snowless as the late 90s. I dont buy the Global warming bs. If you look at it from a business perspective, they (governments) are earning millions from these Green programs or useless taxes they implemented. The 1998 "temperature flip" is intriguing because it correlates well with the AMO shift around that time and the Super El Nino. Another explanation is urbanization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EC now calling for a high of minus 16 in Hamilton on Tuesday. Sounds more reasonable than Toronto and Markham's minus 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just went outside to shovel and measured 7.4cm. I observed 10 different spots that I cleared away yesterday and my final number was 7.4cm. The drifts are incredible! It has stopped snowing in my area, but nice little storm nonetheless. Those measurements seem a little over. My home faces northeastward.. Wherever i measured the accumulations, this morning, there was about 3- 4 cm here in downtown Toronto. That is a little more than i thought would occur overnight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 As expected, arctic front was mediocre. Radar returns looked better than they were. VERY short lived. SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 My dad's estimating 4" in central Etobicoke. Definitely some contamination from the blowing snow is distorting his estimate. Probably 2"+ in actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Bust cancel for my place. Found a place on my driveway with no drifting and measured 9cm in both locations. My 5-10cm call was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Bust cancel for my place. Found a place on my driveway with no drifting and measured 9cm in both locations. My 5-10cm call was good. I really and truly doubt you got that much snow. For you to go with that number it should be your average measurement (highest spots had 15cm, lowest spots had 3 cm). And if you're measuring on your driveway, you'd have to do these measurements well away from your roof, towards the sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Those measurements seem a little over. My home faces northeastward.. Wherever i measured the accumulations, this morning, there was about 3- 4 cm here in downtown Toronto. That is a little more than i thought would occur overnight here. I live up in Vaughan and radar returns last night were not bad in my area. I measured in several spots around my house that I cleared away last night and ended up with 7.4cm. The drifts are nearly 30-35cm in some spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 My dad's estimating 4" in central Etobicoke. Definitely some contamination from the blowing snow is distorting his estimate. Probably 2"+ in actuality. Are u calling your pops a liar? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Arctic front was fun but not as whiteout-y as I'd hoped. Got nice and dark for a bit though. Always enjoy watching the sudden wind shift and cold air behind the front though. With this mornings snow I think we may have closed in on 3" here. Somehow managed to retain decent returns (20-25dbz) from about 10am-1pm right up until the frontal passage. Best event in a while haha, it's been that kind of January. At least there's something else to track tomorrow too. Also Adam Styles used my blowing snow video on the 6 o'clock CityNews which was pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Latest Euro for the upcoming clipper at YYZ. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 00Z 27-JAN -10.0 -16.7 1001 79 99 0.04 516 515 MON 06Z 27-JAN -6.4 -11.8 997 78 85 0.02 515 518 MON 12Z 27-JAN -9.5 -18.2 1000 63 45 0.11 506 506 MON 18Z 27-JAN -10.1 -22.2 1010 55 61 0.02 505 497 TUE 00Z 28-JAN -15.7 -25.4 1017 67 97 0.02 503 491 TUE 06Z 28-JAN -17.8 -26.1 1019 75 82 0.01 501 487 Another 4-8cm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Are u calling your pops a liar? Lol Of course not. Just old and blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Latest Euro for the upcoming clipper at YYZ. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 00Z 27-JAN -10.0 -16.7 1001 79 99 0.04 516 515 MON 06Z 27-JAN -6.4 -11.8 997 78 85 0.02 515 518 MON 12Z 27-JAN -9.5 -18.2 1000 63 45 0.11 506 506 MON 18Z 27-JAN -10.1 -22.2 1010 55 61 0.02 505 497 TUE 00Z 28-JAN -15.7 -25.4 1017 67 97 0.02 503 491 TUE 06Z 28-JAN -17.8 -26.1 1019 75 82 0.01 501 487 Another 4-8cm.. yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 yawn Near 50 in EDM today? Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ha look how much better that arctic squall organized as soon as it headed out over the lake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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