Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Latest run of the Canadian model still has the heaviest snow in my area between 5am and 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 December 1993 was crap. Remember it well. Was so warm mid month we were playing soccor outside and didn't need to wear a coat. 1962-63 was cold, with not a whole lot of snow. Less than even this year. February 1979 saw only 2cm of snow in Ottawa, only slightly more in Toronto, yet was super cold, coldest February since 1934. Ok, so not unprecedented. But as far as my lifetime goes, this may be the first non-torch winter (or at least winter that didn't have periods of torchiness) to feature AOB normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Signs are growing for a stormy pattern to take shape as we head into February. With the -PNA finally breaking down, storms will have more room to amplify and the SE ridge will have room to breath. This will set us up for a gradient pattern, similar to Feb 08. Between Feb 1st and 20th is our last good chance of seeing anything decent in my opinion. Many areas West of Manitoba are currently experiencing way above normal temperatures thanks to the PNA ridge. However, that will not be the case come February as the cold shifts back West and storms finally begin battering the PNW. In addition, I believe we will see a warm-up around February 20th; however, I'm still in line for one last stretch of decent storm activity in the first 1-2 weeks of March. This Winter has fought its way through all the small warm-ups we had, and I believe it will for one last time come March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Conditions by Saturday afternoon but more intensely on Monday will be highly variable on regional highways and a nightmare for travel as a result with alternating bright sun, ground blizzards, blowing snow, drifts over roads, glare ice. I'm just putting in here hoping it will leak out into media forecasts, not because any of you need this advice, Sounds like most areas along northern Lake Ontario shoreline etc... might remember the snow as well as the wind, when all is said and done Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Went for a walk in some high end moderate snow (radar verified), maybe heavy snow but hard to tell with all the blowing. This only lasted about 30 minutes though but did manage to coat the roads well. Since then returns have been pretty weak. I would go try and get some more video but don't want to risk getting stranded out there tonight. Wind is making this event fun though, although gusts probably peaked around 5-8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pearson with 0.6mm of precip yesterday. Probably 0.6 or 0.8cm of snow. Based on the visibilities they reported, that's probably not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So far, and with one eye on the reliable range, in no particular order these winters are perhaps the most similar (for southern ON) ... 1962-63 _ cold and dry, limited warmings, average squall totals, winter broke easily mid-March, more warm than cold to late April, backward May, hot summer, fabulous autumn 1970-71 _ cold with frequent light snows Dec becoming very dry Jan ending with bursts of heavy mostly lake effect snow, then a milder Feb, snow anomalies trending from below in s.w. to above in eastern ON, cold and wintry March, slow warming April, warmish May-June, cool summer, fabulous autumn 1978-79 _ quite similar so far, Christmas freezing rain not nearly as severe, not a lot of snow around Toronto all winter, severe cold mid-February under giant 1055 mb high, March quickly reversed, spring and summer mostly near normal and wet, only rain in Sept from Frederic but that was 200% monthly in eastern ON, rather drab autumn after Oct first 1945-46 _ timing different but a lot of the same sequence of events to this point, Feb became more variable, March very warm, rest of spring summer dry and rather cool in general, fabulous autumn Notice anything similar? Warm March, warm/dry autumns, summers clustering around average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 OPP have closed all roads in Bruce County Amazing, second time in less than a month. Yes, we have been pounded unlike anything in many years. Reports from Twitter Huron County: all roads closed. Bruce County: all roads closed. Wellington County: many roads closed. Clearwater VFD, Simcoe Cty: station open to shelter stranded motorists. Waterloo Region: Highway 7/8 closed. Oxford County: OPP asking everyone off roads. Elgin County: Plows pulled. Chatham-kent: Plows pulled. Stayner, Simcoe Cty: 2 dead in weather related crash. Dufferin County: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures. Caledon: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures. Shelburne, Dufferin Cty: arena opened to shelter 263 stranded people. Red Cross on scene. Dufferin County: dozens of people trapped in cars, cars abandoned. Essex County: Highway 401 closed between Comber and Tillbury. Dufferin County: Honeywood FD rescues over 100 people sheltering many at the station. TWN Mark Robinson photo near Arthur pic.twitter.com/8S7ADG6FO6 Long list, for the first 2 counties that are surrounding me listed, are the in-town roads also closed? I asked in mine after the January 6 blizzard and they confirmed in-town roads were closed as well... By the way, interesting stat posted by ayud in the upstate forum. This is the first winter in 37 years, since 1976-77, that Buffalo has experienced below average temperatures for November, December and January. Pretty impressive stuff. Often you'll have a cold January, like 2003 and 2004, but a warm November and December and vice versa. I read that when reading about the Buffalo Blizzard of Jan 1977 re: 3 months well below normal. You seem great at the stats game, what about a season that had all the winter months below normal? (Nov - Mar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Although in multi-bands, LES really adding an extra kick to this storm from Pickering easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Have an 8.5" drift in the backyard. The wind is incredible out there. Pretty much impossible to get an accurate measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like I might have got an inch of snow overnight, but impossible to measure because of the wind and drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wonder if we'll see some snow from the arctic front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like I might have got an inch of snow overnight, but impossible to measure because of the wind and drifts. I don't think any radar returns above 10 dbz ever moved into Scarborough. You guys may have been affected by both the downsloping and some extra subsidence caused by the LES to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I don't think any radar returns above 10 dbz ever moved into Scarborough. You guys may have been affected by both the downsloping and some extra subsidence caused by the LES to your east. Disappointing, but I wasn't expecting much anyways. Think we can get 1-2" on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Disappointing, but I wasn't expecting much anyways. Think we can get 1-2" on Sunday? From what I recall, you made a bold 5-10cm call fyby. Yeah, 1-2" sounds about right for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 I wonder if we'll see some snow from the arctic front? Certainly. Looks like some strong returns incoming on Exeter radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From what I recall, you made a bold 5-10cm call fyby. Yeah, 1-2" sounds about right for tomorrow. Yeah, you're right. And I busted big time. It's almost comical, really. Judging from EC radar, areas just to the east of the GTA, and areas just to the west, are getting pounded, while areas from Mississauga to Oshawa get very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Certainly. Looks like some strong returns incoming on Exeter radar. You're right. The radar returns are impressive, but who's willing to bet it breaks up over the escarpment, dissipates around Winston Churchill Blvd, then reenergizes just east of Oshawa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, you're right. And I busted big time. It's almost comical, really. Judging from EC radar, areas just to the east of the GTA, and areas just to the west, are getting pounded, while areas from Mississauga to Oshawa get very little. Nature of the beast. Based on a few highway cams I've looked at, the west end seemed to do alright. Tough to estimate just by those shots but I'd guess more than inch. Maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You're right. The radar returns are impressive, but who's willing to bet it breaks up over the escarpment, dissipates around Winston Churchill Blvd, then reenergizes just east of Oshawa? Unfortunately, that's a distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Getting into some solid SN right now, looks like there's a sharp cutoff to my east. Got really lucky imby, the snow never really shutoff all night. Would estimate we've pushed passed the 2" mark at this point, but obviously measuring is impossible. This final burst of snow and the temp crash behind the front will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, last night was interesting. I was NOT prepared for winds like that for the entire night. 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h the entire night in my locale downtown. It was really difficult to sleep. It looks no different outside than it did yesterday snow-wise, with what appears to be only a few cm on the ground. I'm sure there are some drifts hidden somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well, last night was interesting. I was NOT prepared for winds like that for the entire night. 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h the entire night in my locale downtown. It was really difficult to sleep. It looks no different outside than it did yesterday snow-wise, with what appears to be only a few cm on the ground. I'm sure there are some drifts hidden somewhere. You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell? Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell? Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely. It snowing a bit steadier out in north Scarborough now. Looking forward to this arctic front. Looks to be intense. Huge drop in temperature for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think Toronto Pearson has a chance of equaling or surpassing January 2009 for cold. Our current mean is -8.1 Celsius, versus -8.8 Celsius in 2009 and -9.4 Celsius in 2004. January 1994 will remain the king, with a mean of -12.4 Celsius, followed by January 1945, with a mean of -11.9 Celsius, January 1977 at -11.7 Celsius, January 1981 at -10.2 Celsius and January 1982 at -10.1 Celsius. Wow! Those winters of the late 70s/early 80s were something else! People are panicking today, but two severely cold Januaries in a row in the early 80s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell? Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely. Hopefully the snow at Pearson will advance across the city now that it's over the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell? Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely. Coming down nicely over here. Would estimate that snowfall accums are somewhere in the 1-2" zone. Next door neighbour has a 14-18" drift so accums really vary a lot. Going to be impossible for him to get out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell? Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely. From what it appears, yes. No different outside this morning than yesterday morning. I'm sure we picked up a couple centimetres but with the winds it's impossible to tell. Definitely didn't pick up more than 4cm because that would have at least been somewhat noticeable. Actually, my front yard only has a dusting of snow. I would say trace to 0.5 cm. The wind blew whatever was left on there away! I measured a couple drifts of 10cm in some corners. It's not snowing at all downtown right now, nor has it most of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Coming down nicely over here. Would estimate that snowfall accums are somewhere in the 1-2" zone. Next door neighbour has a 14-18" drift so accums really vary a lot. Going to be impossible for him to get out. Snow picking up here. Looks and feel like winter. I did a bit better than I initially thought. Lots of drifting outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 From what it appears, yes. No different outside this morning than yesterday morning. I'm sure we picked up a couple centimetres but with the winds it's impossible to tell. Definitely didn't pick up more than 4cm because that would have at least been somewhat noticeable. One of the reasons why I prefer living in the suburbs as opposed to downtown. It's a concrete jungle down there, not a lot of green space, apart from High Park of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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