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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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December 1993 was crap. Remember it well. Was so warm mid month we were playing soccor outside and didn't need to wear a coat.

1962-63 was cold, with not a whole lot of snow. Less than even this year. February 1979 saw only 2cm of snow in Ottawa, only slightly more in Toronto, yet was super cold, coldest February since 1934.

 

Ok, so not unprecedented. But as far as my lifetime goes, this may be the first non-torch winter (or at least winter that didn't have periods of torchiness) to feature AOB normal snowfall.

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Signs are growing for a stormy pattern to take shape as we head into February. With the -PNA finally breaking down, storms will have more room to amplify and the SE ridge will have room to breath. This will set us up for a gradient pattern, similar to Feb 08. Between Feb 1st and 20th is our last good chance of seeing anything decent in my opinion. Many areas West of Manitoba are currently experiencing way above normal temperatures thanks to the PNA ridge. However, that will not be the case come February as the cold shifts back West and storms finally begin battering the PNW. 

 

In addition, I believe we will see a warm-up around February 20th; however, I'm still in line for one last stretch of decent storm activity in the first 1-2 weeks of March. This Winter has fought its way through all the small warm-ups we had, and I believe it will for one last time come March. 

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Conditions by Saturday afternoon but more intensely on Monday will be highly variable on regional highways and a nightmare for travel as a result with alternating bright sun, ground blizzards, blowing snow, drifts over roads, glare ice.

 

I'm just putting in here hoping it will leak out into media forecasts, not because any of you need this advice, 

 

 

 

Sounds like most areas along northern  Lake Ontario shoreline etc... might remember the snow as well as the wind, when all is said and done Monday morning.

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Went for a walk in some high end moderate snow (radar verified), maybe heavy snow but hard to tell with all the blowing. This only lasted about 30 minutes though but did manage to coat the roads well. Since then returns have been pretty weak. I would go try and get some more video but don't want to risk getting stranded out there tonight.

Wind is making this event fun though, although gusts probably peaked around 5-8pm.

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So far, and with one eye on the reliable range, in no particular order these winters are perhaps the most similar (for southern ON) ...

 

1962-63 _ cold and dry, limited warmings, average squall totals, winter broke easily mid-March, more warm than cold to late April, backward May, hot summer, fabulous autumn

 

1970-71 _ cold with frequent light snows Dec becoming very dry Jan ending with bursts of heavy mostly lake effect snow, then a milder Feb, snow anomalies trending from below in s.w. to above in eastern ON, cold and wintry March, slow warming April, warmish May-June, cool summer, fabulous autumn

 

1978-79 _ quite similar so far, Christmas freezing rain not nearly as severe, not a lot of snow around Toronto all winter, severe cold mid-February under giant 1055 mb high, March quickly reversed, spring and summer mostly near normal and wet, only rain in Sept from Frederic but that was 200% monthly in eastern ON, rather drab autumn after Oct first

 

1945-46 _ timing different but a lot of the same sequence of events to this point, Feb became more variable, March very warm, rest of spring summer dry and rather cool in general, fabulous autumn

 

Notice anything similar? Warm March, warm/dry autumns, summers clustering around average

 

 

 

 

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OPP have closed all roads in Bruce County

Amazing, second time in less than a month. Yes, we have been pounded unlike anything in many years.

 

Reports from Twitter

 

Huron County: all roads closed.

Bruce County: all roads closed.

Wellington County: many roads closed.

Clearwater VFD, Simcoe Cty: station open to shelter stranded motorists.

Waterloo Region: Highway 7/8 closed.

Oxford County: OPP asking everyone off roads.

Elgin County: Plows pulled.

Chatham-kent: Plows pulled.

Stayner, Simcoe Cty: 2 dead in weather related crash.

Dufferin County: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures.

Caledon: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures.

Shelburne, Dufferin Cty: arena opened to shelter 263 stranded people. Red Cross on scene.

Dufferin County: dozens of people trapped in cars, cars abandoned.

Essex County: Highway 401 closed between Comber and Tillbury.

Dufferin County: Honeywood FD rescues over 100 people sheltering many at the station.

 

TWN Mark Robinson photo near Arthur pic.twitter.com/8S7ADG6FO6

:snowwindow: Long list, for the first 2 counties that are surrounding me listed, are the in-town roads also closed? I asked in mine after the January 6 blizzard and they confirmed in-town roads were closed as well...

 

By the way, interesting stat posted by ayud in the upstate forum. This is the first winter in 37 years, since 1976-77, that Buffalo has experienced below average temperatures for November, December and January. Pretty impressive stuff. Often you'll have a cold January, like 2003 and 2004, but a warm November and December and vice versa.

I read that when reading about the Buffalo Blizzard of Jan 1977 re: 3 months well below normal. You seem great at the stats game, what about a season that had all the winter months below normal? (Nov - Mar)

 

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From what I recall, you made a bold 5-10cm call fyby. :whistle:

 

Yeah, 1-2" sounds about right for tomorrow.

Yeah, you're right. And I busted big time. It's almost comical, really. Judging from EC radar, areas just to the east of the GTA, and areas just to the west, are getting pounded, while areas from Mississauga to Oshawa get very little.

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Yeah, you're right. And I busted big time. It's almost comical, really. Judging from EC radar, areas just to the east of the GTA, and areas just to the west, are getting pounded, while areas from Mississauga to Oshawa get very little.

 

Nature of the beast. Based on a few highway cams I've looked at, the west end seemed to do alright. Tough to estimate just by those shots but I'd guess more than inch. Maybe two.

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Getting into some solid SN right now, looks like there's a sharp cutoff to my east. Got really lucky imby, the snow never really shutoff all night. Would estimate we've pushed passed the 2" mark at this point, but obviously measuring is impossible. This final burst of snow and the temp crash behind the front will be fun.

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Well, last night was interesting. I was NOT prepared for winds like that for the entire night. 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h the entire night in my locale downtown. It was really difficult to sleep. It looks no different outside than it did yesterday snow-wise, with what appears to be only a few cm on the ground. I'm sure there are some drifts hidden somewhere.

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Well, last night was interesting. I was NOT prepared for winds like that for the entire night. 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h the entire night in my locale downtown. It was really difficult to sleep. It looks no different outside than it did yesterday snow-wise, with what appears to be only a few cm on the ground. I'm sure there are some drifts hidden somewhere.

 

You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell?

 

Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely.

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You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell?

 

Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely.

It snowing a bit steadier out in north Scarborough now. Looking forward to this arctic front. Looks to be intense. Huge drop in temperature for sure!

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 I think Toronto Pearson has a chance of equaling or surpassing January 2009 for cold. Our current mean is -8.1 Celsius, versus -8.8 Celsius in 2009 and -9.4 Celsius in 2004. January 1994 will remain the king, with a mean of -12.4 Celsius, followed by January 1945, with a mean of -11.9 Celsius, January 1977 at -11.7 Celsius, January 1981 at -10.2 Celsius and January 1982 at -10.1 Celsius.

 

Wow! Those winters of the late 70s/early 80s were something else! People are panicking today, but two severely cold Januaries in a row in the early 80s!

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You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell?

 

Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely.

Hopefully the snow at Pearson will advance across the city now that it's over the escarpment.

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You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell?

 

Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely.

Coming down nicely over here. Would estimate that snowfall accums are somewhere in the 1-2" zone. Next door neighbour has a 14-18" drift so accums really vary a lot. Going to be impossible for him to get out.  :snowing:

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You had a few cm on the ground to begin with though. So are you saying virtually no new snow fell?

 

Funny how the west end seems to be doing the best out of all this. Reversed expectations. Looking at the highway cams near Pearson, it's coming down nicely.

 

From what it appears, yes. No different outside this morning than yesterday morning. I'm sure we picked up a couple centimetres but with the winds it's impossible to tell. Definitely didn't pick up more than 4cm because that would have at least been somewhat noticeable.

 

Actually, my front yard only has a dusting of snow. I would say trace to 0.5 cm. The wind blew whatever was left on there away!

 

I measured a couple drifts of 10cm in some corners.

 

It's not snowing at all downtown right now, nor has it most of the morning.

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Coming down nicely over here. Would estimate that snowfall accums are somewhere in the 1-2" zone. Next door neighbour has a 14-18" drift so accums really vary a lot. Going to be impossible for him to get out.  :snowing:

Snow picking up here. Looks and feel like winter. I did a bit better than I initially thought. Lots of drifting outside. :snowing:

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From what it appears, yes. No different outside this morning than yesterday morning. I'm sure we picked up a couple centimetres but with the winds it's impossible to tell. Definitely didn't pick up more than 4cm because that would have at least been somewhat noticeable.

One of the reasons why I prefer living in the suburbs as opposed to downtown. It's a concrete jungle down there, not a lot of green space, apart from High Park of course.

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