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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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This winds in the early afternoon behaved similar to Superstorm Sandy in my location where the sustained winds were quite light and not noticeable then all of a sudden a large gust would occur and then more of the same. Sustained winds starting to pick up though with light to moderate snow. Blowing snow areas and almost white-out conditions but the country-side is vastly worse. 5-6 roads already closed down before the flakes started!

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I could only imagine what this wind would of done if it was not for the big melt in the beginning of January. The front of the house is very cold tonight from the wind off the open field, not normally an issue but tonight things are different. Off to bed to plow some drifts in the AM. This is a spectacular event to remember.... Cant wait for some fresh snow to enter the mix.

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I checked the 12z RGEM precip forecast and it shows the heaviest snows in Toronto between approximately 4 and 8am tomorrow.

Latest run of the HRRR has ~0.2" of QPF by 8am tomorrow morning, with return's still moving in from the west. The current DGZ is a little over 300mb which is very deep and also nicely saturated. Thinking we can pull off 15-20:1 ratio type snow's based on the current look to Skew-T's and flake size being observed right now. Wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the city hit the 4" mark...

 

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Latest run of the HRRR has ~0.2" of QPF by 8am tomorrow morning, with return's still moving in from the west. The current DGZ is a little over 300mb which is very deep and also nicely saturated. Thinking we can pull off 15-20:1 ratio type snow's based on the current look to Skew-T's and flake size being observed right now. Wouldn't be surprised to see parts of the city hit the 4" mark...

 

attachicon.gifRAP_255_2014012502_F01_43.5000N_79.5000W.png

 

Nice DGZ but with the constant incursion of dry air from 850mb on down, it's going to be tough to keep a steady stream of snow going. There'll be bursts, but there'll also be significant downtime. I'd be shocked if any part of the city came in with 4". Only LES could have produced those local amounts and it appears that lowering delta ts and wind shear have put that hope to rest.

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Nice DGZ but with the constant incursion of dry air from 850mb on down, it's going to be tough to keep a steady stream of snow going. There'll be bursts, but there'll also be significant downtime. I'd be shocked if any part of the city came in with 4". Only LES could have produced those local amounts and it appears that lowering delta ts and wind shear have put that hope to rest.

Maybe we'll have better luck with the Sunday system.

 

Regardless, quite the wind event here!

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Nice DGZ but with the constant incursion of dry air from 850mb on down, it's going to be tough to keep a steady stream of snow going. There'll be bursts, but there'll also be significant downtime. I'd be shocked if any part of the city came in with 4". Only LES could have produced those local amounts and it appears that lowering delta ts and wind shear have put that hope to rest.

Your probably right... just me getting excited about the sudden burst of SN with 75kph gusts we just had. The last frame of the HRRR illustrates your points pretty well with the Lehs centred out east towards cobourg. What I did notice was the LES band drifting west for a time as SFC-850mb winds backed to more of a SSW orientation getting scarborough/oshawa into the action. Possibly something to watch for early tomorrow morning.

.

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Your probably right... just me getting excited about the sudden burst of SN with 75kph gusts we just had. The last frame of the HRRR illustrates your points pretty well with the Lehs centred out east towards cobourg. What I did notice was the LES band drifting west for a time as SFC-850mb winds backed to more of a SSW orientation getting scarborough/oshawa into the action. Possibly something to watch for early tomorrow morning.

attachicon.gifhrrr_ref_toronto_13.png.

Yeah, I think the 401 east of the city is going to be in pretty bad shape by tomorrow morning.

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I think your discussion already nails the range, 3-6 cm west to east. Wind gusts could reach 90 or even 100 km/hr.

 

Sunday night system looks about the same now although with more of a southeast than southwest squall component setting up ahead of 3-6 cm synoiptic scale snows. 

 

 

The 1-26-1971 case of mega-squalls that I mentioned had a sub-975 mb low tracking similarly to the Sunday low and was followed by -40 wind chills, so these cases are similar 

 

Interesting comparison with Jan. 26th., 1971 system. Heavy squalls are pounding northern Georgian Bay already.

 

Maybe we will get higher accumulations in GTA on Sunday night.   That southeast orientation of lake enhancement, stated above, will effect Toronto more,  no?

 

Anyways, have dusting by Queens Park in T.O here. Not really expecting much more than a couple cm. overall through to Sat. night.

The winds are impressive.

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Interesting comparison with Jan. 26th., 1971 system. Heavy squalls are pounding northern Georgian Bay already.

 

Maybe we will get higher accumulations in GTA on Sunday night.   That southeast orientation of lake enhancement, stated above, will effect Toronto more,  no?

 

Anyways, have dusting by Queens Park in T.O here. Not really expecting much more than a couple cm. overall through to Sat. night.

The winds are impressive.

Yeah, I think that's what this system will be remembered for here in Toronto. At least we got a wind warning out of it.

 

OPP have closed all roads in Bruce County

That area has been pounded this month.

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Interesting comparison with Jan. 26th., 1971 system. Heavy squalls are pounding northern Georgian Bay already.

 

Maybe we will get higher accumulations in GTA on Sunday night.   That southeast orientation of lake enhancement, stated above, will effect Toronto more,  no?

 

Anyways, have dusting by Queens Park in T.O here. Not really expecting much more than a couple cm. overall through to Sat. night.

The winds are impressive.

 

Winds with the Sunday system will be S/SSE which is better for Durham region.

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Noticed that January 1994 had 37cm of snow compared to 23 cm so far this month. That winter was remembered as cold and snowy. Point is that there's still a fair amount of winter left and it hasn't been bad compared to many in the past decade. 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 were just two epic snow winters back-to-back.

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The snow has been coming down moderately to at times heavy in my area, in the past 2-3 hours or so... 

 

The temperature is -9.8C on my thermometer.

Temperature is the same at my place. Snow-wise, however, totally different. It really is a hit or miss situation. We will see what I wake up to.

Love hearing the wind outside though.

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Reports from Twitter

 

Huron County: all roads closed.

Bruce County: all roads closed.

Wellington County: many roads closed.

Clearwater VFD, Simcoe Cty: station open to shelter stranded motorists.

Waterloo Region: Highway 7/8 closed.

Oxford County: OPP asking everyone off roads.

Elgin County: Plows pulled.

Chatham-kent: Plows pulled.

Stayner, Simcoe Cty: 2 dead in weather related crash.

Dufferin County: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures.

Caledon: OPP asking everyone off roads, road closures.

Shelburne, Dufferin Cty: arena opened to shelter 263 stranded people. Red Cross on scene.

Dufferin County: dozens of people trapped in cars, cars abandoned.

Essex County: Highway 401 closed between Comber and Tillbury.

Dufferin County: Honeywood FD rescues over 100 people sheltering many at the station.

 

TWN Mark Robinson photo near Arthur pic.twitter.com/8S7ADG6FO6

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Noticed that January 1994 had 37cm of snow compared to 23 cm so far this month. That winter's second half was remembered as cold and snowy. Point is that there's still a fair amount of winter left and it hasn't been bad compared to many in the past decade. 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 were just two epic snow winters back-to-back.

 

fyp. The end of 1993 was atrocious from the data I've seen.

 

Like I said earlier, this winter is breaking ranks. Cold but not particularly snowy. You're good with climo OB. Can you pull up an analog winter that had well below normal temps but only meh snow?

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Noticed that January 1994 had 37cm of snow compared to 23 cm so far this month. That winter was remembered as cold and snowy. Point is that there's still a fair amount of winter left and it hasn't been bad compared to many in the past decade. 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 were just two epic snow winters back-to-back.

 

 

Temperature is the same at my place. Snow-wise, however, totally different. It really is a hit or miss situation. We will see what I wake up to.

Love hearing the wind outside though.

 

Take 2010-11 out and you get two back-to-back sh!t winters, lol. The two winters prior to 07-08 were sh!t as well. I think many of us in the GTA are due for a nice stretch of good winters. Its even more elusive when areas around the GTA don't add up to what we experienced in the past 8-10 years.

 

And same! At times, it sounds like ice pellets are battering my window, lol. If only this was an actual snowstorm :(

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No it hasn't. That's the wind blowing the snow around and playing tricks with your perception.

 

I was outside though? But maybe your right. I guess my eyes are playing games with me, lol. 

 

Even if it does snow, the Nipher is no match for this lool.  

 

Took me forever to drop my "date" home. The roads are chaotic. I should have taken her out tomorrow, HAH  :lmao:

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fyp. The end of 1993 was atrocious from the data I've seen.

 

Like I said earlier, this winter is breaking ranks. Cold but not particularly snowy. You're good with climo OB. Can you pull up an analog winter that had well below normal temps but only meh snow?

December 1993 was crap. Remember it well. Was so warm mid month we were playing soccor outside and didn't need to wear a coat.

1962-63 was cold, with not a whole lot of snow. Less than even this year. February 1979 saw only 2cm of snow in Ottawa, only slightly more in Toronto, yet was super cold, coldest February since 1934.

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By the way, interesting stat posted by ayud in the upstate forum. This is the first winter in 37 years, since 1976-77, that Buffalo has experienced below average temperatures for November, December and January. Pretty impressive stuff. Often you'll have a cold January, like 2003 and 2004, but a warm November and December and vice versa.

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I was outside though? But maybe your right. I guess my eyes are playing games with me, lol. 

 

Even if it does snow, the Nipher is no match for this lool.  

 

Took me forever to drop my "date" home. The roads are chaotic. I should have taken her out tomorrow, HAH  :lmao:

 

Yeah, that's going to be interesting. SW winds gusting to 60 and niphers don't mix. Too bad if it happens because other than Dec 14th I haven't had much to complain about out of Pearson. 

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