harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm really pulling for you harrisale. This should be a 20cm+ event for you!! Not sure I'd go as far as 'should' be 20+cm but its in the realm of possibility with any minor adjustments in track. I think I'm going to stick with my 16cm call given my north Oakville location but as one of the western most-GTA posters I think I'll do pretty well in this event. YHM Supercell will likely take top prize this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty impressive storm headed for the Toronto area. My call is for 4-7", with the highest amounts along the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm beginning to question my 4-6" now. The only thing keeping me with it is the really dry air level aloft, could eat some of that moisture away. If the air was more humid I would probably be calling for 6-7" in the GTA. I think areas north of the 401 are going to struggle to hit above 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm beginning to question my 4-6" now. The only thing keeping me with it is the really dry air level aloft, could eat some of that moisture away. If the air was more humid I would probably be calling for 6-7" in the GTA. I think areas north of the 401 are going to struggle to hit above 4" This is where the winds off the lake will really help those of use closer to the lakeshore this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is where the winds off the lake will really help those of use closer to the lakeshore this time around. Yup. Could end up with an interesting gradient with 7" along the GTA lakeshore and 4" in Vaughan. As much as I've moaned about my location this winter, I have more "in one event" high storm totals, but I have had to sacrifice that for consistency/continuous snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm beginning to question my 4-6" now. The only thing keeping me with it is the really dry air level aloft, could eat some of that moisture away. If the air was more humid I would probably be calling for 6-7" in the GTA. I think areas north of the 401 are going to struggle to hit above 4" Air is already nice and saturated. Its one of the reasons why ratios will be so high and why the potential is there for nice deformation bands to form. Humidity is 60% right now and will continue to rise as we move on through the day. Storm shouldnt be here for another 12 hours. Loads of time left. Water vapour satellite below; http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?image=vis&inv=0&t=cur®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Air is already nice and saturated. Its one of the reasons why ratios will be so high and why the potential is there for nice deformation bands to form. Humidity is 60% right now and will continue to rise as we move on through the day. Storm shouldnt be here for another 12 hours. Loads of time left. Water vapour satellite below; http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?image=vis&inv=0&t=cur®ion=us Yes, humidity is 60% at the surface but not aloft. Take a look at a skewT or tephigram if you can; massive dry layer aloft is going to eat away at some of that moisture for areas away from the lake. Also, I would never call 60% "nice and saturated" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty impressive storm headed for the Toronto area. My call is for 4-7", with the highest amounts along the lakeshore. FWIW 12z nam has YYZ getting 8.8".. latest SREF mean is also around 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, humidity is 60% at the surface but not aloft. Take a look at a skewT or tephigram if you can; massive dry layer aloft is going to eat away at some of that moisture for areas away from the lake. Also, I would never call 60% "nice and saturated" To illustrate that point here's the latest (12Z) observed sounding from KBUF. Dry layer from about 925 to 600mb will need to moisten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, humidity is 60% at the surface but not aloft. Take a look at a skewT or tephigram if you can; massive dry layer aloft is going to eat away at some of that moisture for areas away from the lake. Also, I would never call 60% "nice and saturated" You have a link? It will get saturated with more moisture through the day as the clouds begin moving in. The highly saturated clouds as indicated by the water vapour maps are still well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You have a link? It will get saturated with more moisture through the day as the clouds begin moving in. The highly saturated clouds as indicated by the water vapour maps are still well south of the region. Of course it will moisten up, that isn't a question. However, snow will fall sooner and with more intensity at the onset of the event for downtown than areas north, for example, because that dry air aloft will need to be scoured out. This is why totals will be less north, especially because the track is south anyway and the north will see less QPF, so it's like a double whammy. Seeing about 5cm less north of the 401 than downtown, for example, is a pretty reasonable estimate given meteorology. Being close to the lake allows for that dry air to scour out much quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 FWIW 12z nam has YYZ getting 8.8".. latest SREF mean is also around 7". This should be a good storm for you guys down in Buffalo! I'm rooting for you guys as you missed out on the last event, getting just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 TWN calling for 4-6" north of the 401 and 6-10" south of the 401 and along the lakeshore toward Hamilton/Niagara (increasing amounts, 12"+ possible there). I know from a friend who works at TWN as a junior met that Chris Scott is taking the lead on the forecast, he's pretty excited about the late model shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Of course it will moisten up, that isn't a question. However, snow will fall sooner and with more intensity at the onset of the event for downtown than areas north, for example, because that dry air aloft will need to be scoured out. This is why totals will be less north, especially because the track is south anyway and the north will see less QPF, so it's like a double whammy. Seeing about 5cm less north of the 401 than downtown, for example, is a pretty reasonable estimate given meteorology. Being close to the lake allows for that dry air to scour out much quicker. Yes that is expected. Areas closer to the Lake will be near the heart of the system and dry air will be quickly eliminated than areas further north. But thats not going to rule out the potential for a widespread snowstorm across the GTA. Closer to the lake amounts will likely be 18cm and away from the Lake 12-16cm. The real question is how high will be the ratios and where the deformation bands will set-up. As the storm draws closer, humidity levels will rise. If it shifts further NW than what the models depict, then amounts will gradually increase further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty impressive storm headed for the Toronto area. My call is for 4-7", with the highest amounts along the lakeshore. Yes, it is forming classic 'comma shape' Could be best storm this winter if slight movement northward. Now a snowfall warning in Oakville and around Golden Horseshoe. Bit of a surprise! Yesterday 2-4 inches was safe call. We might get higher end of your 4-7 inch call. Methinks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 After analyzing current OBS vs models I'm going with this; North of 401: 9-15cm South of 401: 13-20cm Hamilton: 17-24cm Oakville/Burlington area: 13-18cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Final call: 5-7" for Toronto (north to south gradient)...3-6" for OB and Snowstorms...6-9" for harrisale....8-10" for the Hamilton folks....2-5" for Hal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 After analyzing current OBS vs models I'm going with this; North of 401: 9-15cm South of 401: 13-20cm Hamilton: 17-24cm Oakville/Burlington area: 13-18cm Why did you limit the high end in Oakville/Burlington considering they are both south of the 401 and in the western part of the GTA? When you say south/north of 401 are you referring to the City of Toronto specifically? Final call: 5-7" for Toronto (north to south gradient)...3-6" for OB and Snowstorms...6-9" for harrisale....8-10" for the Hamilton folks....2-5" for Hal. Looks good to me, although I'd squeeze that range for my backyard down to 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why did you limit the high end in Oakville/Burlington considering they are both south of the 401 and in the western part of the GTA? When you say south/north of 401 are you referring to the City of Toronto specifically? Looks good to me, although I'd squeeze that range for my backyard down to 6-8". Yeah, by north/south of 401....I mean specifically to the City of Toronto and surrounding area. That was a typo, my bad. I was supposed to write 13-20cm for Oakville/Burlington. Closer to 13-16cm in the suburbs of Oakville/Burlington and near 20cm by the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Harrisale, remember to start a part ii of this thread soon. Once threads get near/over 1000 they're supposed to be closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Final call: 5-7" for Toronto (north to south gradient)...3-6" for OB and Snowstorms...6-9" for harrisale....8-10" for the Hamilton folks....2-5" for Hal. Those calls are simple and therefore probably right. lol I am in wishcasting mode after seeing thunderstorms firing/ fueling system on south end. This is providing the recent jump in all forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Those calls are simple and therefore probably right. lol I am in wishcasting mode after seeing thunderstorms firiing/ fueling system on south end. This is providing the recent jump in all forecasts. Trends are our friend. Maybe the 18z NAM will have another nice surprise. edit: nope. going the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Harrisale, remember to start a part ii of this thread soon. Once threads get near/over 1000 they're supposed to be closed. Nice work Ontarians. Let's hit a cool 1000 just to say we did and I'll have another thread ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Trends are our friend. Maybe the 18z NAM will have another nice surprise. edit: nope. going the wrong direction NAM back east? Would line up with what I'm seeing on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Final call: North of 401: 4" South of 401: 5-7" Mississauga/Burlington/Oakville (around the lake): 6-7" Hamilton/Niagara region: 9-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM back east? Would line up with what I'm seeing on the HRRR. Looks like it. I based my call on the somewhat drier EURO so I'm not making any changes to my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 15z SREF mean over 8" for the first time at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 15z SREF mean over 8" for the first time at YYZ. Awesome. Battle of the models within 24 hours LOL. 18z Nam has 10-15cm in the GTA. And closer to 20cm by Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 15z SREF mean over 8" for the first time at YYZ. How's the spread? Starting to narrow? Can't check at work for some reason, browser won't support the SREF plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Awesome. Battle of the models within 24 hours LOL. 18z Nam has 10-15cm in the GTA. And closer to 20cm by Hamilton. We'll have to see once the surface low gets going what's what. However, Justin (a met) just mentioned in the main thread that at a minimum the ul low is a bit west of what was forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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