snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ya, EC is trying to cover all bases. Calling for 2-4 cm today/tonight.but say snow starts after midnight. After midnight today is actually tomorrow. Huh? Then text forecast calls for 5 cm tomorrow. So all added up that is between 5-9 cm for storm total.for YYZ, but all tomorrow really,i guess? TWN was saying 5-10 cm.in forecast early this morning/.late last night Now the folks on tube are forecasting 10-15 cm. Again 50 mile shift north could bring up to 20 cm here downtown. A 50 mile shift south could bring less than 10 cm. Overall system is looking to perform better as we get closer to occasion. Very shortly will be wishcasting/ nowcasting time.per usual. One of the few times I can remember where things drastically improve as we get closer to the actual event. Usually it's the opposite for us. My 3-6"/8-15cm call may be a touch conservative at this point (waiting to see the rest of the models). But I'm not going to buy completely into the 20+cm the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM is a beauty for YYZ. Looks idential qpf wise to the 12z Nam. Shows 6-9" for the GTA under 15:1 snow ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Seems like everywhere but Toronto is below -15. We're about to hit -25 I bottomed out at -13.4c overnight. Urban Heat island Effect for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM is a beauty for YYZ. Looks idential qpf wise to the 12z Nam. Shows 5-8" for the GTA under 15:1 snow ratios. Small uptick again from 6z. Gets the 15mm isohyet up to the Toronto lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I bottomed out at -13.4c overnight. Urban Heat island Effect for you! YYZ bottomed out at -16C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Small uptick again from 6z. Gets the 15mm isohyet up to the Toronto lakeshore. Just saw the maps again and I made a correction in my post. It actually shows 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just saw the maps again and I made a correction in my post. It actually shows 6-9". The map show liquid equivalent, not snowfall. Whatever ratios you want to apply to it are of your own choosing. That being said, assuming 14-15:1, your range is pretty close. Nice call on the NW shift too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going to be interesting to see what EC does. I'm guessing they upgrade to a warning (too late for a watch) along the north shore of Lake Erie, Hamilton, and maybe southern Halton. Don't think they can stomach putting Toronto into a warning. Probably go for 10-15cm total, just shy of warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The map show liquid equivalent, not snowfall. Whatever ratios you want to apply to it are of your own choosing. That being said, assuming 14-15:1, your range is pretty close. Nice call on the NW shift too. Yeah, it seems the Nam and RGEM are in agreement for 15-25cm across the GTA. Ratios should be good and will make way for higher totals. Wouldnt rule out the potential for deformation bands either. Dynamics and thermals look healthy for that.And in regards to your other post, EC will stay conservative as it always does, and probably wont issue any warnings for Toronto. And NW call by me? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 One of the few times I can remember where things drastically improve as we get closer to the actual event. Usually it's the opposite for us ...but I'm not going to buy completely into the 20+cm the NAM is showing.. It is like this system is supposed to 'blossom'. Starting to show a late winter/ early spring trend in atmosphere here now occurring. Whatever happened to GFS? Seems like RGEM is go to model these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snowfall warning likely coming from EC..I would imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 EC calling for 12-14cm with latest update for GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADAAT 11:05 AM EST TUESDAY 4 FEBRUARY 2014.---------------------------------------------------------------------WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND=NEW= BRANTFORD - COUNTY OF BRANT=NEW= NIAGARA=NEW= CITY OF HAMILTON=NEW= BURLINGTON - OAKVILLE. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.---------------------------------------------------------------------==DISCUSSION==A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER LOUISIANA IS FORECAST TO TRACKINTO SOUTHERN OHIO OVERNIGHT. IT IS ALREADY TAPPING INTO MOISTUREFROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARDSTHROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WARNEDREGIONS LATE THIS EVENING.THE SNOW WILL FALL RATHER HEAVILY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. THISWILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE AS ACCUMULATIONS OF 5TO 10 CM ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. COMMUTERSSHOULD ALLOW SOME EXTRA TIME DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW AND REDUCEDVISIBILITY.TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 CM ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED REGIONS WITHAMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 20 CM POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NIAGARA REGIONBEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTSINTO NEW ENGLAND.REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.END/OSPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Chris Scott @ChrisScottWx 1 hr Our forecast team has bumped up totals for S'rn ON/GTA storm. Suggested northward track shift finally occurred. Rough travel Wed #onstorm Hallelujah. Really wishing for it to keep trending north, its time for a February miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Chris Scott @ChrisScottWx 1 h Hallelujah. Really wishing for it to keep trending north, its time for a February miracle. Had a ridiculous 14.4 inch storm total downtown T.O last year Feb.8-9th. 2013. Had over 12 inch here Feb. 6th 2008. But..... I remember way too often watching February waste away with little happening over decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At -25.6 overnight, it was the coldest low since Jan 22nd, and 3rd coldest temp of 2014 in Waterloo. Forecast was only for -16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This would be the biggest synoptic storm across WNY in sometime if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At -25.6 overnight, it was the coldest low since Jan 22nd, and 3rd coldest temp of 2014 in Waterloo. Forecast was only for -16. Waterloo airport is in a very rural location, if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ah been so busy lately, haven't had much time to hit the models. Really late to the game on my call so I'm going to go with 16cm on the dot for my backyard. It's great that a storm has finally shown some positive last-minute trends. I always had a feeling we were good for at least 10cm on this system and this thing would go a bit more northwest, but this morning's run were a very pleasant surprise. As Hoosier pointed out in the storm thread "12z may have been the first cycle where everything was fully sampled." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Waterloo airport is in a very rural location, if I'm not mistaken. From the University of Waterloo in town. The airport is semi-rural its in Breslau which hugs Kitchener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Damn nice NAM run. Maybe I'm being negative but it stings to have double the amounts forecasted here only a couple hours south. But given how screwy this winter had been I think I have the right to complain about how I'm entitled to a foot! My potential for 10-15cm just got less exciting. Envy is taking over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tom Stef has uploaded this pic, Dave P says the low looks north of where it's forecast right now pic.twitter.com/xtVlMsn9wX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tom Stef has uploaded this pic, Dave P says the low looks north of where it's forecast right now pic.twitter.com/xtVlMsn9wX Wow. 150 miles north and 75 miles east of where the GGEM had it on its 12Z run today. The northerly tick would be fantastic for us, but the easterly shift will hurts us. The low would hook away from us. I think current model trends are likely decent even if this thing hasn't tracked properly: 6-8" for Niagara and 4-6" for GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z EURO stays in the south camp, 10-13cm for GTA, closer to 15+ for St. Catherine's EDIT: based on 10:1 liquid equiv. We will likely do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z EURO stays in the south camp, 10-13cm for GTA, closer to 15+ for St. Catherine's Where does it have the low for 18Z today in comparison to the red dot in the twitter pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where does it have the low for 18Z today in comparison to the red dot in the twitter pic? Not sure, there are no 18Z panels. But here's the text data for YYZ, thermals look great: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 05-FEB -7.8 -7.7 1029 84 66 0.00 552 530 WED 06Z 05-FEB -7.3 -9.5 1025 86 97 0.05 548 528 WED 12Z 05-FEB -7.2 -10.7 1018 87 100 0.15 541 528 WED 18Z 05-FEB -6.8 -11.5 1014 79 99 0.23 532 521 THU 00Z 06-FEB -10.6 -12.2 1021 75 49 0.05 534 518 THU 06Z 06-FEB -15.7 -13.5 1025 80 39 0.00 535 516 And Hamilton. Better in terms of total moisture: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YHM LAT= 43.17 LON= -79.93 ELE= 781 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 05-FEB -7.2 -7.7 1029 84 57 0.00 554 531 WED 06Z 05-FEB -6.8 -8.9 1024 88 100 0.09 549 531 WED 12Z 05-FEB -6.2 -10.5 1016 90 100 0.22 542 530 WED 18Z 05-FEB -6.8 -11.4 1014 82 100 0.25 533 522 THU 00Z 06-FEB -10.2 -12.0 1021 79 52 0.05 535 518 THU 06Z 06-FEB -17.3 -13.3 1026 82 49 0.00 536 517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not sure, there are no 18Z panels. But here's the text data for YYZ, thermals look great: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 05-FEB -7.8 -7.7 1029 84 66 0.00 552 530 WED 06Z 05-FEB -7.3 -9.5 1025 86 97 0.05 548 528 WED 12Z 05-FEB -7.2 -10.7 1018 87 100 0.15 541 528 WED 18Z 05-FEB -6.8 -11.5 1014 79 99 0.23 532 521 THU 00Z 06-FEB -10.6 -12.2 1021 75 49 0.05 534 518 THU 06Z 06-FEB -15.7 -13.5 1025 80 39 0.00 535 516 Not 10-13cm like you said. Under 15:1 snow ratios that equates to 15-20cm. So Euro is on board like all the other 12z Runs. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not sure, there are no 18Z panels. But here's the text data for YYZ, thermals look great: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 05-FEB -7.8 -7.7 1029 84 66 0.00 552 530 WED 06Z 05-FEB -7.3 -9.5 1025 86 97 0.05 548 528 WED 12Z 05-FEB -7.2 -10.7 1018 87 100 0.15 541 528 WED 18Z 05-FEB -6.8 -11.5 1014 79 99 0.23 532 521 THU 00Z 06-FEB -10.6 -12.2 1021 75 49 0.05 534 518 THU 06Z 06-FEB -15.7 -13.5 1025 80 39 0.00 535 516 And Hamilton. Better in terms of total moisture: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YHM LAT= 43.17 LON= -79.93 ELE= 781 12Z FEB04 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 05-FEB -7.2 -7.7 1029 84 57 0.00 554 531 WED 06Z 05-FEB -6.8 -8.9 1024 88 100 0.09 549 531 WED 12Z 05-FEB -6.2 -10.5 1016 90 100 0.22 542 530 WED 18Z 05-FEB -6.8 -11.4 1014 82 100 0.25 533 522 THU 00Z 06-FEB -10.2 -12.0 1021 79 52 0.05 535 518 THU 06Z 06-FEB -17.3 -13.3 1026 82 49 0.00 536 517 Looks more like 6-8" for the GTA, no? And ~9" for Hamilton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not 10-13cm like you said. Under 15:1 snow ratios that equates to 15-20cm. So Euro is on board like all the other 12z Runs. Awesome. You're right, the snow maps I peeked at use a 10:1 ratio. My bad. Better to go with text data vs. maps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm really pulling for you harrisale. This should be a 20cm+ event for you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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