Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -11.4 at YorkU Must be the heat island created by the houses. I bet if I drove north of Major Mackenzie, the temperature would drop like a rock under these conditions. Places like Uxbridge must be frigid, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ya, I was just about to post Pearson had a 4C drop in one hour. Pretty impressive. I often think this is one of the reasons observed temperature lows have warmed so much at Pearson over the past 50 years. In the 40s, 50s and even 60s, Pearson was almost in a rural area. Now it's an urban heat island jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I checked to make sure too. Now its -20.8ºC so really getting down there. 9:45 pm: -21.8ºC...a perfect 1ºC drop 3 times now in 15 minute sections. We dropped to -21 last night looks like again tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -11.4 at YorkU -14.2C at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 -14.2C at my house. What kind of thermometer do you have? Where do you put the sensor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've warmed back up to -8.9c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What kind of thermometer do you have? Where do you put the sensor? Outside in my backyard...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Outside in my backyard...lol. lol. I meant do you have it attached to a fence (as I do) or is it just above the ground. Wireless I assume? I have both a wireless as well as an old fashioned wired one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What kind of thermometer do you have? Where do you put the sensor? In a barrel of liquid nitrogen, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol. I meant do you have it attached to a fence (as I do) or is it just above the ground. Wireless I assume? I have both a wireless as well as an old fashioned wired one. It came with the house, lol. Its attached to the ground. Its a Mercury Thermometer. Its ideal for me cause sometimes I build a ice rink in my backyard to practice for hockey, lol. In a barrel of liquid nitrogen, duh LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 With the RGEM, NAM, and GFS all in agreement I'll go ahead and lock in a final call for Toronto of 3-6". Best chance for the higher end near Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm going to make my final call. 4-5" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM and NAM make me want to bump my call up a bit for Hamilton. Think 6" may be within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM and NAM make me want to bump my call up a bit for Hamilton. Think 6" may be within reach. 8" wouldn't surprise me, especially towards Stoney Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 8" wouldn't surprise me, especially towards Stoney Creek. At this point in time, my call is; 12-17cm right by the Lake up until 401 And north of 401 around 8-13cm. A general 14-18cm in Hamilton and more as you head towards the Niagara Region. Its a sharp cutoff but if we can trend more NW on the models this could go up. One can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temps are going to support high ratio snows, as previously mentioned. .4 - .6 inches of QPF could quite possibly be 6-8"...the waiting is the hardest part, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At this point in time, my call is; 12-17cm right by the Lake up until 401 And north of 401 around 8-13cm. A general 14-18cm in Hamilton and more as you head towards the Niagara Region. Its a sharp cutoff but if we can trend more NW on the models this could go up. One can hope. So you're averaging 15cm for the GTA south of the 401. That's like 20:1 ratios, rather than 15:1. Too bullish imho. And frankly, I think you're being too conservative down Hamilton-Niagara way. You're giving maybe a little better than 10:1 on their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So you're averaging 15cm for the GTA south of the 401. That's like 20:1 ratios, rather than 15:1. Too bullish imho. And frankly, I think you're being too conservative down Hamilton-Niagara way. You're giving maybe a little better than 10:1 on their money. Yeah maybe I am, lol. I'll reduce the amounts in the GTA by 2cm and increase the Hamilton-Niagara area by 2cm, Happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah maybe I am, lol. I'll reduce the amounts in the GTA by 2cm and increase the Hamilton-Niagara area by 2cm, Happy? You keep the numbers you want. It's just constructive criticism. Feel free to do the same to my calls. Operative word though is constructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Down to -23.5 at UW and it's not even midnight blowing that -16 forecast low right out of the water! Prit-near froze on the walk home CYKF is about 315m above sea level, and the UW wx station is 334m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Down to -23.5 at UW and it's not even midnight blowing that -16 forecast low right out of the water! Prit-near froze on the walk home CYKF is about 315m above sea level, and the UW wx station is 334m. That's simply incredible. I'm sitting at -9.8c! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's simply incredible. I'm sitting at -9.8c! Seems like everywhere but Toronto is below -15. We're about to hit -25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wouldnt be surprised if EC upgrades hamilton, halton, peel and niagara to snowfall warnings given the latest look to the RGEM. Would expect them to at least up amounts some. My final call is 4-7" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wouldnt be surprised if EC upgrades hamilton, halton, peel and niagara to snowfall warnings given the latest look to the RGEM. Would expect them to at least up amounts some. My final call is 4-7" for YYZ. image.jpg Hamilton and Niagara wouldn't surprise either. Halton and Peel would. It's funny how conservative they are being in their text forecast considering the RGEM is so bullish. Whenever the RGEM is showing mixing/rain they follow it blindly and disregard any other models. But when it's actually favourable for snow, they seemingly disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll go with 3" north of the 401 and 4" south of the 401 in the GTA. Areas along the lakeshore, particularly Hamilton/Niagara region could see 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ARW with some good loving for the Hamilton folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Who's going to clean the poop out of EC's underwear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh boy, 5-6" for the GTA look within reach. I'm still going to stick with 4" but this could be an over-performer if enhancement pans out. Hamilton could really score it looks like. Wouldn't be surprised if our southern 'Sauga posters do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's funny how conservative they are being in their text forecast Ya, EC is trying to cover all bases. Calling for 2-4 cm today/tonight.but say snow starts after midnight. After midnight today is actually tomorrow. Huh? Then text forecast calls for 5 cm tomorrow. So all added up that is between 5-9 cm for storm total.for YYZ, but all tomorrow really,i guess? TWN was saying 5-10 cm.in forecast early this morning/.late last night Now the folks on tube are forecasting 10-15 cm. Again 50 mile shift north could bring up to 20 cm here downtown. A 50 mile shift south could bring less than 10 cm. Overall system is looking to perform better as we get closer to occasion. Very shortly will be wishcasting/ nowcasting time.per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They've beefed up the wording in the SWS at the 8:54 issuance. Now they're calling for 10cm with locally higher amounts outside of the Hamilton-Niagara sweet spot. I'm wondering if this is just based off the increasingly favourable look of the RGEM or whether they had a chance to digest the new 12z NAM. ============= A fairly significant snowfall beginning tonight and tapering off Wednesday.A developing low pressure centre is expected to emerge from the Southern United States today and head towards Pennsylvania by Wednesday morning. Snow will spread into Southwestern Ontario this evening and the Golden Horseshoe around midnight. It is expected to reach communities north of Lake Ontario overnight and Eastern Ontario very early Wednesday morning.Most regions from Windsor to Toronto to Kingston and Brockville may receive a few centimetres of snow by Wednesday morning rush hour. Commuters should allow some extra time due to accumulating snow and reduced visibility in falling snow.Total amounts of up to 10 cm are likely by the time the snow tapers off on Wednesday with locally higher amounts. However, the Niagara and Hamilton regions will likely receive some enhanced amounts due to somewhat heavier snow off Lake Ontario. Amounts close to 15 cm are possible in this area. A snowfall warning (issued when 15 cm falls within 12 hours) may be issued a little later today depending on the development of the system.Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at WWW.WEATHER.GC.CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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