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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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Even Buttonville is only at 24cm/9.5".

May have been mentioned already but the latest RGEM is looking sweet for the wednesday event. H7 low tracks ENE towards DTW with the sfc low getting north of the ohio river at 48. Hopefully its onto something but doubt it at this point. Will probably end up with 0.2-0.35" of QPF with ratios ~15:1, which is pretty good.

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May have been mentioned already but the latest RGEM is looking sweet for the wednesday event. H7 low tracks ENE towards DTW with the sfc low getting north of the ohio river at 48. Hopefully its onto something but doubt it at this point. Will probably end up with 0.2-0.35" of QPF with ratios ~15:1, which is pretty good.

attachicon.gif12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

 

Wish the damn 18z run would update.

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 Depth down here is more like 7-9". Doubt theres that much of a difference up in vaughan.

 

36-40 cm. is about 12-14 inches. Ya, 7-9 inches is a difference.

 

Typically downtown is about half of what is north of St. Clair with all these systems approaching around the freezing mark.

 

At least colder air will be in place if QPF increases on next events. Hopefully....

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36-40 cm. is about 12-14 inches. Ya, 7-9 inches is a difference.

 

Typically downtown is about half of what is north of St. Clair with all these systems approaching around the freezing mark.

 

At least colder air will be in place if QPF increases on next events. Hopefully....

 

What he was saying was that Snowstorms' estimate was too high (as was he when he made it).

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May have been mentioned already but the latest RGEM is looking sweet for the wednesday event. H7 low tracks ENE towards DTW with the sfc low getting north of the ohio river at 48. Hopefully its onto something but doubt it at this point. Will probably end up with 0.2-0.35" of QPF with ratios ~15:1, which is pretty good.

attachicon.gif12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

Here's hoping. Anthony Farnell of Global is saying 10cm for Toronto.

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35-40 cm on ground now? Where is that?

 

Here in downtown T.O maybe 5-8 cm of airy crust.

 

 

Thinking 5-8 cm for next system, Tues.night- Wed. morning, here downtown T.O.

I would normally think theres no way that downtown is 5-6 inches lower then my depth but you can really notice the difference in a short period of time along the lakeshore. South Etobicoke appears to have half of what I have so maybe 4 inches on the ground. 

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Feeling pretty optimistic regarding ratio's in the middle of the best upward motion/deformation zone early wednesday morning. Notice how the DGZ is very nicely saturated and ~350-400mb thick which is about as impressive as i've seen all season. As long as we can escape the very northern fringe of this system, 0.2-0.3" of QPF can go a long way with expected thermals.

 

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Feeling pretty optimistic regarding ratio's in the middle of the best upward motion/deformation zone early wednesday morning. Notice how the DGZ is very nicely saturated and ~350-400mb thick which is about as impressive as i've seen all season. As long as we can escape the very northern fringe of this system, 0.2-0.3" of QPF can go a long way with expected thermals.

NAM_218_2014020318_F39_43.5000N_79.5000W.png

Impressive. I was hinting at the possibility of deformation bands forming in combination with high snow ratios. SFC temps look to be around -7 to -11C. Should be interesting. Hopefully the 0z runs are more giving.

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Feeling pretty optimistic regarding ratio's in the middle of the best upward motion/deformation zone early wednesday morning. Notice how the DGZ is very nicely saturated and ~350-400mb thick which is about as impressive as i've seen all season. As long as we can escape the very northern fringe of this system, 0.2-0.3" of QPF can go a long way with expected thermals.

 

attachicon.gifNAM_218_2014020318_F39_43.5000N_79.5000W.png

 

With that kind of DGZ I could see the 5.5" SREF mean snowfall verifying.

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The UW Waterloo weather station is showing -18.8ºC currently...that seems awfully cold! Forecast was for -12ºC this evening which is my current temp.

KW drops like a stone under conditions like tonight. Its -17.0C at the airport so the reading of -18.8C isn't that far off. Earlier in the season KW dropped down to -25C under clear skies and then warmed up dramatically the moment some clouds and winds picked up. I remember watching the yo yo of temperatures that happened that night. 

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KW drops like a stone under conditions like tonight. Its -17.0C at the airport so the reading of -18.8C isn't that far off. Earlier in the season KW dropped down to -25C under clear skies and then warmed up dramatically the moment some clouds and winds picked up. I remember watching the yo yo of temperatures that happened that night. 

I checked to make sure too. Now its -20.8ºC so really getting down there.

 

9:45 pm: -21.8ºC...a perfect 1ºC drop 3 times now in 15 minute sections.

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I checked to make sure too. Now its -20.8ºC so really getting down there.

 

9:45 pm: -21.8ºC...a perfect 1ºC drop 3 times now in 15 minute sections.

Toronto Pearson is currently five degrees colder than outside my house. I'm at -8.7c, Pearson is at -13.7c! Not often you see that, That's radiational cooling for you, I guess.

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