Toronto4 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is this just for the Friday-Saturday event, or does it include the Sunday event as well? Just for the Friday-Saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Around what time should the snow start to fall this evening in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Around what time should the snow start to fall this evening in Toronto? I'd say just after 7-8 this evening. The heaviest snow should fall late overnight into early tomorrow morning before tapering late morning/early afternoon Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 For tonight my general call is 6cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Dealing with 60km/h gusts with a SSW direction in -13C weather is awful. The 4cm snow on the group blows all over it feels like it's synoptic snow but it's not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's early, so no one should be claiming victory/conceding defeat yet, but the winds so far have more of a southerly component than the NAM was indicating, per sfc analysis. An indication of this is that the lake band over Lk Ontario is in the process of clipping the Beaches/Bluffs area of Toronto/Scarborough. Yep, looking good. Hopefully will reduce downsloping effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It will be interesting to see if we actually see some decent enhancement out of this thing. Anything close to 10 cm would be a massive win. I'll savour my forecast of 6cm. You know you've been massively snow deprived this winter when you are hoping for >5cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The latest Euro shows 0.21 qpf total for tonight's event in the GTA. Similarly, it shows the same for the Sun-Mon. clipper. Only difference is the cooler temperatures meaning higher ratios. My call for both systems in total, is a general 4-5" in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winds gusting past 70kph now. Intense blowing/drifting at my place and the snow hasn't even started falling yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Expect 401 east of about Ajax to be severely impacted by tonight's snow and blowing snow, and this will extend as far north as Peterborough and Hwy 7 east. Eventually the heavy snow squalls will reach Kingston and Brockville regions. Amounts in this squall zone could reach 25 cm locally but 10-20 more widespread. Back across GTA, I think your discussion already nails the range, 3-6 cm west to east. Wind gusts could reach 90 or even 100 km/hr as they did earlier near south end of L Michigan. Sunday night system looks about the same now although with more of a southeast than southwest squall component setting up ahead of 3-6 cm synoiptic scale snows. That one will be followed by intense west to northwest squall bands but given ice cover, only central L Huron is fully exposed now, Ggn Bay may produce some if winds break up the ice cover. Conditions by Saturday afternoon but more intensely on Monday will be highly variable on regional highways and a nightmare for travel as a result with alternating bright sun, ground blizzards, blowing snow, drifts over roads, glare ice. I'm just putting in here hoping it will leak out into media forecasts, not because any of you need this advice, I'm sure it's obvious to you already. The 1-26-1971 case of mega-squalls that I mentioned had a sub-975 mb low tracking similarly to the Sunday low and was followed by -40 wind chills, so these cases are similar but the 2014 case looks a bit less intense and there may be more ice on Ggn Bay now than there was at that stage. From Stayner to Barrie, there was almost a metre of snow from that event and regional highways were closed for days, concession roads on the Dundalk Highlands were closed all through February as plows could not get through the drifts, even though the weather actually became quite bland and not much further snow fell. Just as conditions were improving, we were then whacked with the huge snowstorm on March 4, 1971 in eastern Ontario and Quebec. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winds gusting past 70kph now. Intense blowing/drifting at my place and the snow hasn't even started falling yet. I was just down at Bluffers park for half an hour and the winds were insane, almost blowing me over. It's hard to believe that some people actually live on the house boats down there year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Expect 401 east of about Ajax to be severely impacted by tonight's snow and blowing snow, and this will extend as far north as Peterborough and Hwy 7 east. Eventually the heavy snow squalls will reach Kingston and Brockville regions. Amounts in this squall zone could reach 25 cm locally but 10-20 more widespread. Back across GTA, I think your discussion already nails the range, 3-6 cm west to east. Wind gusts could reach 90 or even 100 km/hr as they did earlier near south end of L Michigan. Sunday night system looks about the same now although with more of a southeast than southwest squall component setting up ahead of 3-6 cm synoiptic scale snows. That one will be followed by intense west to northwest squall bands but given ice cover, only central L Huron is fully exposed now, Ggn Bay may produce some if winds break up the ice cover. Conditions by Saturday afternoon but more intensely on Monday will be highly variable on regional highways and a nightmare for travel as a result with alternating bright sun, ground blizzards, blowing snow, drifts over roads, glare ice. I'm just putting in here hoping it will leak out into media forecasts, not because any of you need this advice, I'm sure it's obvious to you already. The 1-26-1971 case of mega-squalls that I mentioned had a sub-975 mb low tracking similarly to the Sunday low and was followed by -40 wind chills, so these cases are similar but the 2014 case looks a bit less intense and there may be more ice on Ggn Bay now than there was at that stage. From Stayner to Barrie, there was almost a metre of snow from that event and regional highways were closed for days, concession roads on the Dundalk Highlands were closed all through February as plows could not get through the drifts, even though the weather actually became quite bland and not much further snow fell. Just as conditions were improving, we were then whacked with the huge snowstorm on March 4, 1971 in eastern Ontario and Quebec. Good times. February 1971 is perhaps the snowiest February on record in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Frontogenesis ramping up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Must say I'm impressed already with the radar. Perhaps EC's 7-9 cm call is a good one for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Most exciting event in a while haha. Going to take a drive up to the open fields north of me. Will try to get some blowing snow/drifting video and post if its any good. BUF mentioning 20:1 ratios and deep DGZ OBVIOUSLY THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW RAMPING UP LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD PART OF SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN MOISTURE CONTENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVING A TOTAL OF AROUND 0.15 TO MAYBE 0.30 INCHES OF TOTAL QPF. MODEL PROFILES SHOWING A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH NEARLY ALL PROFILES SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS AREA HOVERING NEAR -10C. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF AT LEAST 20:1 SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES... AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT NEARS THE REGION IT WILL RUN UP AGAINST THE EXPANSIVE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE HELD FIRM WITH GENERATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 65 KNOTS AT 850 MB WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS DOWN TO 925 MB. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW DEEP WILL THE MIXED LAYER BE? BUFR PROFILES ALL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION RIGHT AROUND 900 MB UNDER A SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WHICH MAY ALLOW US TO ESCAPE THE STRONGEST WINDS. REGARDLESS...EVEN MIXING TO 900 MB WILL STILL TAP INTO WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WITH REGARD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WITH PROBABLE WHITEOUT OR NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I just clocked a 90 km/h wind gust downtown. I haven't seen winds like this since November. If Lake Erie wasn't completely frozen over this wind would feed into the system nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winter Storm Warning up for all of WNY. Is there a similar warning across the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winter Storm Warning up for all of WNY. Is there a similar warning across the lake? Of course not. There really should be a wind warning up for the GTA right now. Winds are crazy, things are blowing around all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winter Storm Warning up for all of WNY. Is there a similar warning across the lake? There's warnings for the LES potential east of Toronto. That's it. SW winds do not have the same toxicity in WNY that they do for Toronto. So I'm not expecting Toronto to get the same kind of impact that you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Of course not. There really should be a wind warning up for the GTA right now. Winds are crazy, things are blowing around all over the place. Speak of the devil http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?on61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:16 PM EST FRIDAY 24 JANUARY 2014.---------------------------------------------------------------------WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WIND WARNING FOR:=NEW= CITY OF TORONTO=NEW= PICKERING - OSHAWA - SOUTHERN DURHAM REGION=NEW= COBOURG - COLBORNE - WESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 100 KM/H NEAR THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH REPORTS INDICATING WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 94 KM/H AT TORONTO ISLAND. EXPECT VERY STRONG WIND GUSTING TO 100 KM/H TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER LOCALES MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO TREES, WITH LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ALSO POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY ON ROADS SUBJECT TO STRONG CROSS WINDS NEAR THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There's warnings for the LES potential east of Toronto. That's it. SW winds do not have the same toxicity in WNY that they do for Toronto. So I'm not expecting Toronto to get the same kind of impact that you are. Yeah, makes sense. SW winds over a frozen Lake Erie with some decent snow on the ground and in piles is going to result in gusts around 60 mph. We have a tad over 6 inches on the ground here, but the piles are still here from the Blizzard. Should be a fun little event. If Erie wasn't nearly frozen I would expect quite a bit from this event, but NWS is calling for 3-6 inches. Here is a pic of the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Drifting snow reported now for the 7th hour in a row. Wonder if we end up meeting blowing snow warning criteria once the snow bands begin to move through. METAR CYYZ 242200Z 20019G31KT 15SM DRSN FEW050 BKN130 M11/M18 A2982 RMK SC2AC3 PRESFR SLP111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I just took a drive on some open roads just north of my place between Oakville and Milton. Intense blowing snow in some spots, cars in the ditch. Some roads already drifted over with about 10cm. Got some wicked video, will post once uploaded. Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's the video. It was wicked out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Here's the video. It was wicked out there! It's like there is a jet engine out of frame blowing the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Just got back from the drive from Pearson Airport to home. Some drifting on 401 but nothing too serious yet. East of GTA near Brighton there was a 40 vehicle pileup due to the squalls from the SW winds - surprised you GTA guys aren't talking about that one. We came back from Florida today - my son came back Monday nite and had a minor case of frostbite on his fingers waiting for the shuttle bus at Pearson and this afternoon , my fingers were tingling while I was loading the luggage in the bus. Good times my ass................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Going to go out and shoot once the snow starts to pick up. Roads perpendicular to the winds were snow covered on the way home from work today. On another note. Have added hourly forecast data and a few other goodies to some pages on my website. Example for Dundas. http://www.bit.ly/1bnnp1s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 So far, radar returns SW of Barrie seem to be holding together. No evidence of downsloping, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Light snow is starting to fall at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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