Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Honestly, I'm not an LR guy OB. So I'll abstain from making any predictions. It's a short month and at least the first 10 days look below normal. That'll help. After that, who knows, but I've heard the CFS looks favourable for cold the majority of the month. Based on current patterns I do suspect a warm-up between Feb 15th and 20th as the PV across Siberia retrogrades towards Alaska. In similarity, it follows in close relation to the mid-late December warm-up. Thereafter, models show a major SSW unfolding across the Arctic and that would likely mean a return to a more colder pattern after Feb 20th as the AO/NAO go negative. 240 hours: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.gif Current temps: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/n19_amsu_t30_nh_asc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Based on current patterns I do suspect a warm-up between Feb 15th and 20th as the PV across Siberia retrogrades towards Alaska. In similarity, it follows in close relation to the mid-late December warm-up. Thereafter, models show a major SSW unfolding across the Arctic and that would likely mean a return to a more colder pattern after Feb 20th as the AO/NAO go negative. 240 hours: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.gif Current temps: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/n19_amsu_t30_nh_asc.gif One has to wonder if there will be another freezing rain event sometime this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've spent about half an hour trying to word how this area is awful for storms, but every time it comes across as any complainer saying their in a bubble. By bubble, I mean there is something with conditions around that must act as an inflow inhibitor.Storm can be a healthy 70dbz beast, hits Wellesy Twp, whats left is a remnant 30dbz or less rain storm and two claps of thunder. Sometimes storms lose all electrical characteristics on their approach. Sometimes storms completely vanish in a couple KBUF scans, like what happened with that monster in July 2012 that went from very high dbz to nothing left in two scans, and that storm was moving NW to SE well west of here. Verified severe storms are so rare in any given location so it's not what I mean a 'bubble'. It's the fact that from my own personal experience, and even bias over the last 14 years, that something is killing storms around here. Edit, probably lake breezes. I've heard from people around me who lived in the K-W area (and surrounding, not just the cities themselves) back in the 1980s that severe thunderstorms were really bad back then compared to now, have you heard similar? I wonder if its just another "all in their head" thing because some are up here in more rural parts of MW Ontario so the storms wouldn't be as bad because of higher latitude and more nonsense from Lake Huron messing with them. Honestly, I'm not an LR guy OB. So I'll abstain from making any predictions. It's a short month and at least the first 10 days look below normal. That'll help. After that, who knows, but I've heard the CFS looks favourable for cold the majority of the month. What's LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What's LR? Long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GTA hasn't had a 15.0 cm+ snowfall since December 14th, right? And that was only for downtown really. Has anyone north of the 401 in the GTA had more than 15cm yet this winter in one event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Global News calling for only 2-4cm of snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Anthony Farnell was not the one giving the weather report though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GEM seems to be more bullish on this event than most other guidance. You can see that the 18z RGEM would be pushing a low into Ohio during the late overnight if it went to 60h. We should have a contest (deadline Tuesday 4 pm EST) and add in the various media outlet forecasts just for fun. Verification would be YYZ snowfall total Tues-Wed. But add in one other location if you trust it to report (accurately). I would not want to enter a guess before Tuesday morning the way this is going, however, we could make the deadline Monday 2359h if you want to make it more of a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Right now I would anticipate ~4" along the lakeshore and ~2" north of the 401 I see this being predominantly south. I would be shocked if anyone got 6" out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Right now I would anticipate ~4" along the lakeshore and ~2" north of the 401 I see this being predominantly south. I would be shocked if anyone got 6" out of this I'm still going with up to 10cm across Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 With the NE getting another blizzard like system, it makes me.... -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 With the NE getting another blizzard like system, it makes me.... -_- It's just climo my friend. Toronto is statistically and historically not prone to big blizzards. 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 stand out like sore thumbs. Look at it this way. Philly will get pounded, but then the snow will melt a week later. They don't build up snowpacks down there like we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Two pics from my walk to work this afternoon. A healthy winter out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Two pics from my walk to work this afternoon. A healthy winter out there! Perfect day. So different from Edmonton. It hasn't snowed in basically a month and everything here is grey and grungy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've heard from people around me who lived in the K-W area (and surrounding, not just the cities themselves) back in the 1980s that severe thunderstorms were really bad back then compared to now, have you heard similar? I wonder if its just another "all in their head" thing because some are up here in more rural parts of MW Ontario so the storms wouldn't be as bad because of higher latitude and more nonsense from Lake Huron messing with them. I'm not sure about severe hazards overall, but I do have tornado records from the 1900s, and there was a higher frequency of violent tornadoes and outbreaks between the 1950s and 1980s across Southern Ontario ending on May 31, 1985 with a downward trend in frequency and severity. The people you know how said the 80s were active are right. that decade featured several prolific tornado events including three F4s, two F3s, eighteen F2s, at least 12 deaths, and 321 injuries. The 70s also closed with two F4s in the 1979 Woodstock tornado outbreak killing 2 and injuring 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Perfect day. So different from Edmonton. It hasn't snowed in basically a month and everything here is grey and grungy. Is this abnormal for Edmonton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 With the NE getting another blizzard like system, it makes me.... -_- East coast weenies hacked the 0z gfs run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just realized YYZ has had constant snowcover since December 9th! Looks good to make it to February 9th, so 2 full months. Last time that happened was probably either 2004-05 or 2002-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is this abnormal for Edmonton? I don't think so. Typically mid December to mid February are pretty snowless: dry, cold arctic air sits in place. Unlike their southern Albertan counterparts, chinook winds are rare. Pretty stagnant weather there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just realized YYZ has had constant snowcover since December 9th! Looks good to make it to February 9th, so 2 full months. Last time that happened was probably either 2004-05 or 2002-03. Definitely not the latter. December 2002 was quite mild overall despite the Christmas Day snow. This is the first winter in years that December, January and possibly even February will all average out cold. How about 2008-2009? Wasn't December 2008 snowy in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Perfect day. So different from Edmonton. It hasn't snowed in basically a month and everything here is grey and grungy. Did the snowpack survive the torch up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just realized YYZ has had constant snowcover since December 9th! Looks good to make it to February 9th, so 2 full months. Last time that happened was probably either 2004-05 or 2002-03. Yes realized that last night as well. Snowpack is quite healthy, will post some pics of my neighborhood later. The driveway piles are getting pretty big, some sidewalks its like walking down a hallway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mississauga Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GTA looks good for 10cm or so. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 GTA looks good for 10cm or so. I'll take that. That's what I'm thinking as well. Will be nice to tack that onto the snowpack. Then there's the weekend. Snowdepth could be huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GTA looks good for 10cm or so. I'll take that. That's what I'm thinking as well. Will be nice to tack that onto the snowpack. Then there's the weekend. Snowdepth could be huge! This is how I'm thinking too. True, this isn't going to be as big as I'd hoped, but another 10cm to the snowpack will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GTA looks good for 10cm or so. I'll take that. Welcome absolutely, positively, without a doubt NEW member! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Definitely not the latter. December 2002 was quite mild overall despite the Christmas Day snow. This is the first winter in years that December, January and possibly even February will all average out cold. How about 2008-2009? Wasn't December 2008 snowy in Toronto? I didn't mean that it was exactly coextensive with the exact same period of time in 2002-03. I mean the last time there was any 2 month period of constant snowcover in Toronto. From what I remember Jan-Mar 2003 didn't have much, if any, green grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Welcome absolutely, positively, without a doubt NEW member! Lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did the snowpack survive the torch up there? Yup. It got sliced in half, and it's more of an icepack, but it's still here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12cm storm total up at YorkU, 20 cm on the ground now. Looks awesome up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just realized YYZ has had constant snowcover since December 9th! Looks good to make it to February 9th, so 2 full months. Last time that happened was probably either 2004-05 or 2002-03. Downtown Toronto had constant snowcover from Dec. 6, 2000 to March 19, 2001. Other long stretches of snowcover downtown: Jan 3, 2003 to March 18, 2003 Jan 5, 2004 to March 1, 2004 Jan 15, 2007 to March 14, 2007 Feb 1, 2008 to April 2, 2008 Dec 17, 2008 to Feb 28, 2009 As for this winter, there has been snow on the ground downtown since Dec. 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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