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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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The Waterloo report is not mine

 

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NATIONAL CAPITAL
REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:06 A.M. EST SUNDAY
2 FEBRUARY 2014.

FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA. FOR AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, LESSER AMOUNTS
WERE REPORTED AS THE TEMPERATURE ROSE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN. GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 CENTIMETRES OF
SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THIS BULLETIN WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN ONTARIO WHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID AS OF 1.00 A.M. UNLESS
OTHERWISE NOTED.

LOCATION             TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT
                         (CENTIMETRES)

WINDSOR                       11
LONDON                         9 (AS OF 10.00 P.M. SATURDAY)
HAMILTON                       9
MOUNT FOREST                  11
WATERLOO                      10 (AS OF 7.00 P.M. SATURDAY)
BRAMPTON                      13 (AS OF 12.00 A.M.)
WOODBRIDGE                    15
TORONTO PEARSON                9
BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT           10
PETERBOROUGH                  13
KEMPTVILLE                    14
OTTAWA                        16

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL
INFORMATION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END

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The Waterloo report is not mine

 

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NATIONAL CAPITAL

REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:06 A.M. EST SUNDAY

2 FEBRUARY 2014.

FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT

CANADA. FOR AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO, LESSER AMOUNTS

WERE REPORTED AS THE TEMPERATURE ROSE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK

CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN. GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 CENTIMETRES OF

SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THIS BULLETIN WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT

FOR EASTERN ONTARIO WHERE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID AS OF 1.00 A.M. UNLESS

OTHERWISE NOTED.

LOCATION             TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT

                         (CENTIMETRES)

WINDSOR                       11

LONDON                         9 (AS OF 10.00 P.M. SATURDAY)

HAMILTON                       9

MOUNT FOREST                  11

WATERLOO                      10 (AS OF 7.00 P.M. SATURDAY)

BRAMPTON                      13 (AS OF 12.00 A.M.)

WOODBRIDGE                    15

TORONTO PEARSON                9

BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT           10

PETERBOROUGH                  13

KEMPTVILLE                    14

OTTAWA                        16

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL

INFORMATION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END

 

Generally it looks like the warning did not verify.

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Spent the night in the Carlisle area of Hamilton that stayed all snow for the duration of the event, where there was about 15cm of accumulation. I drove back to my place which is on the border of Ancaster and Hamilton on the west mountain, and there is about 10cm, however it is cement, and my road is basically sheet ice. Parents said it rained for about 1-2 hours last evening. 

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12z GEM ramps up accums from a trace on the 0z run to 3-4" on the 12z run with the mid week storm. GFS also nudged north a bit.

 

Models aren't properly handling the S/W and are killing off the northern stream too quickly. As a result, you end up with disorganized bands on the northern fringe of the system, while all the moisture from the Gulf gets locked up on the warmer side. 

 

I suspect the models will come around in the coming day or two and show a more potent low affecting the region. At this point in time, I favor a track along the Ohio River Valley. 

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Chris scott seems to be impressed with the potential as he is edging more towards a NAM like solution.

Like Canuck, Chris Scott is a meteorologist I have a lot of faith in, so we'll see.

 

Euro shows about 5-10cm for the GTA. Meh.....starting to lose faith with this one. 

 

 

My hope was tied to the models overdoing that extreme retrogression in the northern stream. They seem pretty adamant at this point though.

I wouldn't give up on it just yet. By the way, have you seen what the GFS is depicting for Sunday 9th? Wow! Looks like a similar track to January 2, 1999.

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Chris scott seems to be impressed with the potential as he is edging more towards a NAM like solution.

I've been following him closely for the last week and he went from impressed and hyped, to one tweet that started back-peddling and downplaying because of some model guidance that backed off, to then back to the former up to this point. Like OB said, I have faith in his judgment and is one of my favorite Canadian meteorologists.

 

I hope that model image posted above is dead wrong, that would be awful for my area. Because of the uncertain totals for the next storm, my interest is higher for the one modeled Feb.9.

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Like Canuck, Chris Scott is a meteorologist I have a lot of faith in, so we'll see.

 

 

 

I wouldn't give up on it just yet. By the way, have you seen what the GFS is depicting for Sunday 9th? Wow! Looks like a similar track to January 2, 1999.

If Wednesday was a miss for us, verification of the 12z GFS for Sunday/Monday would make that instantly forgotten. 

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5-10cm is still a nice shovelable snow.

I agree. Anything that builds our snowpack is good.

 

One thing I am concerned about is the warming trend on the Euro around the 13th. I would really like this month to finish up below normal in the temperature department.

 

Do you think Pearson will hit -20C this month?

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I agree. Anything that builds our snowpack is good.

 

One thing I am concerned about is the warming trend on the Euro around the 13th. I would really like this month to finish up below normal in the temperature department.

 

Do you think Pearson will hit -20C this month?

 

Already hit it 6 times when we only probably average 1-2/year. I'd say you're probably running out of luck in that department, especially considering we're now getting past the coldest part of the year. You never know though. I think Toronto's coldest temp so far this century happen in March of 2003.

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Already hit it 6 times when we only probably average 1-2/year. I'd say you're probably running out of luck in that department, especially considering we're now getting past the coldest part of the year. You never know though. I think Toronto's coldest temp so far this century happen in March of 2003.

You're right. I remember it well.

 

Do you think February will end up below average temperature-wise. Coldest February this century thus far is 2007. Might not beat that (mean of -8.4c) but if we can beat 2003 (mean -7.0c) we can make it into second place.

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You're right. I remember it well.

 

Do you think February will end up below average temperature-wise. Coldest February this century thus far is 2007. Might not beat that (mean of -8.4c) but if we can beat 2003 (mean -7.0c) we can make it into second place.

 

Honestly, I'm not an LR guy OB. So I'll abstain from making any predictions. It's a short month and at least the first 10 days look below normal. That'll help. After that, who knows, but I've heard the CFS looks favourable for cold the majority of the month.

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