snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And now they have....0.1C with SW winds. Sh!t! lol, can still accumulate at that temp. And Hamilton after peaking around 2.3 or something is down to 1.5. So it's just a small risk zone until the cold front passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Valid 9:45. Always wondered how they update more frequently then ec. I assume they are using pearson data with the toronto gridpoint... Might be the city centre or island data. No way (or very, very unlikely) that Pearson was up to 34 intrahour with 9pm and 10pm temps at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 How much down?Forgot to set out my snowboard but average around the yard of 11cm.Temp ever so slightly above 0 on my outdoor thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might be the city centre or island data. No way (or very, very unlikely) that Pearson was up to 34 intrahour with 9pm and 10pm temps at 32. That makes more sense. After taking a look at the latest spc mesoanalysis, looks like the 925mb/850mb wind vectors are beginning to veer more towards the WNW. Should help allow the 0c isotherms at H85 and 925mb to slowly drift SE, albeit slowly over the next few hours. Think we have hit our warmest point right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It'll be interesting to see what the final numbers look like. Frankly, returns have looked kind of ragged in the actual Snowfall warning to our north. I'd say right along the 401 corridor has fared best today. Maybe Torchaggedon could chime in at some point. Yeah I wasn't impressed with the returns north of KW and I'm kind of irate at it. The snowfall warnings didn't make much sense to me. I had light snow turning to moderate around 1:30 pm and the heaviest was at 2:45 pm. It has been light to very light with a stupid dry slot at 5:00 pm. Don't know snow totals but under 10 cm likely at this point, hopefully more come soon as I'm just in the alright rates of snowfall currently. Is there a reason why we get so many pixie dust snow events in KW? YKF rarely ever reports SN or +SN and a lot of times over the years we stay all grains while radar has us in heavy returns and people report "rip city" snow action around us. It's not always the case, but it does happen a couple times a winter. Best measurement I can get is 3.5" I get the pixie dust far too often as well. Huge snowflakes are very uncommon where I'm at. Fall is the most common time for it. What other effect could this theory have on the weather? Could it explain the common occurrence of thunderstorms virtually vanishing as they approach the twin cities. Locally we've all watched that supercell in Perth Co. drifting this way only to rapidly disappear out towards Wellesley. A local storm chaser and I have discussed this a few times, but not even she has an explanation. I just call it the Waterloo Region 'weather bubble' I'm starting to find everyone has their own "weather bubble". I feel like this for severe weather and yes, even lake effect snow. Could be all in our heads. I caught this one this afternoon. Reds showing up and I checked and it wasn't rain or mix there at the time. That's a 6 cm per hour rate! I want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Temperature now up to 0.2C at YYZ. I have 12.5cm so far in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Temperature now up to 0.2C at YYZ. I have 12.5cm so far in my area. Visibility up to 4km too. Radar looks ok but it's not translating. SW wind now....downsloping? Usually the downsloping is visible on the radar though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Visibility up to 4km too. Radar looks ok but it's not translating. SW wind now....downsloping? Usually the downsloping is visible on the radar though. IMO, I think its a quick temperature spike and by 12am we'll be safely below freezing again. Upper air temps are borderline but have been drifting ESE away from the city which is good. As you said yourself, the cold front should be making its way thru soon. I don't suspect any downsloping atm. Radar returns defy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still snowing IMBY. Temperature holding steady at 0.2c. And there's my 3000th post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 IMO, I think its a quick temperature spike and by 12am we'll be safely below freezing again. Upper air temps are borderline but have been drifting ESE away from the city which is good. As you said yourself, the cold front should be making its way thru soon. I don't suspect any downsloping atm. Radar returns defy it. Maybe the viz is down because of mixing with rain then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Changed back to mostly light snow now here by Queens Park. 0c exact Good size flakes. Let the accumulating begin again....eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still snowing in midtown (yonge and st Clair) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still snowing in midtown (yonge and st Clair) Same up at McCowan and Steeles. I think we might manage 15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not sure about that. In Toronto that happens all the time because of the marine layer, but you're well inland. Might be that the most favourable area for the development of lake breeze convergence zone is more to your N & W? Funny thing is that I always thought KW was an excellent spot for tsra development (not a severe guy so don't hold me to this). I've spent about half an hour trying to word how this area is awful for storms, but every time it comes across as any complainer saying their in a bubble. By bubble, I mean there is something with conditions around that must act as an inflow inhibitor.Storm can be a healthy 70dbz beast, hits Wellesy Twp, whats left is a remnant 30dbz or less rain storm and two claps of thunder. Sometimes storms lose all electrical characteristics on their approach. Sometimes storms completely vanish in a couple KBUF scans, like what happened with that monster in July 2012 that went from very high dbz to nothing left in two scans, and that storm was moving NW to SE well west of here. Verified severe storms are so rare in any given location so it's not what I mean a 'bubble'. It's the fact that from my own personal experience, and even bias over the last 14 years, that something is killing storms around here. Edit, probably lake breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Last gasp boys. Looks like my 4-6" call will work out nicely, north of Bloor St. at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've spent about half an hour trying to word how this area is awful for storms, but every time it comes across as any complainer saying their in a bubble. By bubble, I mean there is something with conditions around that must act as an inflow inhibitor.Storm can be a healthy 70dbz beast, hits Wellesy Twp, whats left is a remnant 30dbz or less rain storm and two claps of thunder. Sometimes storms lose all electrical characteristics on their approach. Sometimes storms completely vanish in a couple KBUF scans, like what happened with that monster in July 2012 that went from very high dbz to nothing left in two scans, and that storm was moving NW to SE well west of here. Verified severe storms are so rare in any given location so it's not what I mean a 'bubble'. It's the fact that from my own personal experience, and even bias over the last 14 years, that something is killing storms around here. Downsloping? TSRA is most likely in our region during the summer ahead of a cold front. Winds are usually from the SW. So that would tend to point away from downsloping. E winds are more typical during cold weather season overrunning events, not convection. You should ask Dave Patrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Last gasp boys. Looks like my 4-6" call will work out nicely, north of Bloor St. at least. Another hour or two before it tapers off. I'm at 13.8cm so far and it looks like I'll finish off with 15cm. Will be interesting to see what YYZ records. The rain part flopped entirely and another bad move by EC. They base forecasts entirely off the RGEM in the short range which isnt formal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Last gasp boys. Looks like my 4-6" call will work out nicely, north of Bloor St. at least. Canuck, what are your thoughts for Wednesday? It doesn't look good. Chris Scott's call may bust. I'm thinking 5-10cm max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Another hour or two before it tapers off. I'm at 13.8cm so far and it looks like I'll finish off with 15cm. Will be interesting to see what YYZ records. The rain part flopped entirely and another bad move by EC. They base forecasts entirely off the RGEM in the short range which isnt formal IMO. You might fall short. Back edge of accum. snow is going to be by you in less than 1/2 an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canuck, what are your thoughts for Wednesday? It doesn't look good. Chris Scott's call may bust. I'm thinking 5-10cm max. Models have a difficult time handling the S/W and as a result aren't properly phasing the streams. Models this season have had a hard time dealing with these S/W's and determining how much QPF is expected on the Northern fringe. I'd give it another day or till it becomes sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You might fall short. Back edge of accum. snow is going to be by you in less than 1/2 an hour. Yeah I think 14cm-14.2cm will probably be my final number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canuck, what are your thoughts for Wednesday? It doesn't look good. Chris Scott's call may bust. I'm thinking 5-10cm max. In the storm thread I mentioned I'm not buying that northern stream retrogression the EURO and GEM are showing. Think it's an extreme solution. Less retrogression = more phasing = more NW track. That's still my current line of thinking although the new 0z GGEM re-upped on the suppression idea. Might have to give the models another run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 TSRA is most likely in our region during the summer ahead of a cold front. Winds are usually from the SW. So that would tend to point away from downsloping. E winds are more typical during cold weather season overrunning events, not convection. You should ask Dave Patrick. Thanks for the explanation. Always been curious as to why it happens, and it could be any number of reasons, or maybe there is no reason at all and it's all down to dumb luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snowing lightly now in my area. Temperature is up to 0.5C at YYZ; however, the Low has passed the GTA and the cold front is cutting thru. Expect temperatures to drop off within the next hour or two. Another fail by EC, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snowing lightly now in my area. Temperature is up to 0.5C at YYZ; however, the Low has passed the GTA and the cold front is cutting thru. Expect temperatures to drop off within the next hour or two. Another fail by EC, lol. This has been a bad winter for them. No doubt. All three of the siggy snow events. They did well with the ice storm from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This has been a bad winter for them. No doubt. All three of the siggy snow events. They did well with the ice storm from what I recall. Yeah and judging by the radar, areas that were in the snowfall warning didn't experience any healthy bands moving thru. I could be wrong but thats based all on the radar. Yeah, they did well for the Ice storm but completely failed in 3 storms this season. Btw, dont forget the LES fail a week ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canuck, YYZ records 12.4mm of precip yesterday. Whats your take? And as I said before, temperature now down to 0.3C at YYZ and winds are now out of the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Canuck, YYZ records 12.4mm of precip yesterday. Whats your take? And as I said before, temperature now down to 0.3C at YYZ and winds are now out of the NNW. Sounds about right. 10:1 ratio = 12.4cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sounds about right. 10:1 ratio = 12.4cm. Awesome. Their forecast was 5-10cm and looks like they failed yet again. They still haven't updated Decembers snowfall totals, odd! Their missing 10.4cm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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