Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Judging by the black and white charts, the RGEM seems a hair warmer than the 18z. 12 hr increments arent very helpful in these types of situations lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 There was no need to quote my post to begin with. It had no beneficial purpose. Please let others enjoy the forum by not singling them out and scrutinizing them out of the blue, thanks in advance! Dude, as i stated a few times i quoted your post to demonstrate my difference of opinion at the time.. Everyone quotes others (including yourself) to show difference of opinion or agreement. Your calls yesterday have drifted away to something new today. So be it. lol It is a weather forum after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Judging by the black and white charts, the RGEM seems a hair warmer than the 18z. 12 hr increments arent very helpful in these types of situations lol. Using the ptype maps, I'd agree. Flushes any chance of EC beefing up the totals since they're the RGEM'S b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dude, as i stated a few times i quoted your post to demonstrate my difference of opinion at the time.. Everyone quotes others (including yourself) to show difference of opinion or agreement. Your calls yesterday have drifted away to something new today. So be it. lol It is a weather forum after all. Using the ptype maps, I'd agree. Flushes any chance of EC beefing up the totals since they're the RGEM'S b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Latest GFS almost a carbon copy of the Nam. Slightly warmer by the Lake but north of 401, >15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bit of a step back but still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah still seems like 4-6" for GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is looking to be a good storm after all boys. Let's get ready to rumble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS snow-liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm thinking the GFS is a smidge too north. Areas it pegged getting rain are seeing snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm thinking the GFS is a smidge too north. Areas it pegged getting rain are seeing snow right now. That sounds like some good news, hopefully that translates good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 EC doesn't even budge accums up a bit. They are truly incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 EC doesn't even budge accums up a bit. They are truly incompetent. TO and London have pretty well verbatim the same forecast from EC which includes snow changing to rain. You don't see that happening and cutting into totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 TO and London have pretty well verbatim the same forecast from EC which includes snow changing to rain. You don't see that happening and cutting into totals? I'm not willing to buy wholesale into the all snow solutions, especially since the 6z NAM backed off and is now a bit warmer. So I wouldn't have gone with a warning or anything. But no one in Toronto is going to see just 5cm. They should have bumped the totals into the 10-15 range, which is more reasonable. London is a bit more precarious. Probably a N-S gradient in the city but north of Highway 2 expect closer to 10 I think. Maybe they got spooked by the warmer overnight temps. I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 EC doesn't even budge accums up a bit. They are truly incompetent. The 5-10cm call makes little to no sense to me. Short range models are looking good, keeping most of the GTA besides the lake shore as all snow. It's not too often you see the ARW, NMM, RAP and HRRR singing a similar tune at this range, although their are some notable QPF differences between them. I am a bit concerned about the over performing sfc temps but low level temps seem on track with model projections ATM. Feeling pretty confident most, if not all of the GTA, exceeds the 3-4" mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 5-10cm call makes little to no sense to me. Short range models are looking good, keeping most of the GTA besides the lake shore as all snow. It's not too often you see the ARW, NMM, RAP and HRRR singing a similar tune at this range, although their are some notable QPF differences between them. I am a bit concerned about the over performing sfc temps but low level temps seem on track with model projections ATM. Feeling pretty confident most, if not all of the GTA, exceeds the 3-4" mark. Yeah, even if the weenie band sets up along Highway 7 we seem to be a lock for at least 4" prior to the changeover. I noticed Toronto Island is at -0.7c already though . Don't want to read too much into that but I would be a little jittery if I was right along the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, even if the weenie band sets up along Highway 7 we seem to be a lock for at least 4" prior to the changeover. I noticed Toronto Island is at -0.7c already though . Don't want to read too much into that but I would be a little jittery if I was right along the lake. Even getting a little concerned as far north as here. The euro 2m temps were way too cold compared to reality(known bias)... projecting a temp of -7.2c right now. In reality I am at -1.1c IMBY. 0.7" of QPF is encouraging, however. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 06Z 01-FEB -6.0 -8.2 1022 85 42 0.00 545 528 SAT 12Z 01-FEB -7.2 -7.0 1023 89 98 0.00 548 531 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -2.8 -5.3 1018 93 99 0.08 551 536 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -1.7 -3.1 1012 98 96 0.33 550 540 SUN 06Z 02-FEB -0.8 -3.2 1011 97 96 0.25 547 538 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -3.3 -5.6 1015 89 68 0.04 544 532 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 -8.2 1018 70 47 0.00 541 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Even getting a little concerned as far north as here. The euro 2m temps were way too cold compared to reality(known bias)... projecting a temp of -7.2c right now. In reality I am at -1.1c IMBY. 0.7" of QPF is encouraging, however. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 06Z 01-FEB -6.0 -8.2 1022 85 42 0.00 545 528 SAT 12Z 01-FEB -7.2 -7.0 1023 89 98 0.00 548 531 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -2.8 -5.3 1018 93 99 0.08 551 536 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -1.7 -3.1 1012 98 96 0.33 550 540 SUN 06Z 02-FEB -0.8 -3.2 1011 97 96 0.25 547 538 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -3.3 -5.6 1015 89 68 0.04 544 532 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 -8.2 1018 70 47 0.00 541 527 I suspect we'll cool a bit with the onset of pcpn but there may be more bl struggles than I had anticipated. Wait and see mode at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not willing to buy wholesale into the all snow solutions, especially since the 6z NAM backed off and is now a bit warmer. So I wouldn't have gone with a warning or anything. But no one in Toronto is going to see just 5cm. They should have bumped the totals into the 10-15 range, which is more reasonable. London is a bit more precarious. Probably a N-S gradient in the city but north of Highway 2 expect closer to 10 I think. Maybe they got spooked by the warmer overnight temps. I don't know. Thanks for the feedback. These marginal situations have a bad habit of turning out more wet than white so I'll be pleasantly suprised if it stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks for the feedback. These marginal situations have a bad habit of turning out more wet than white so I'll be pleasantly suprised if it stays all snow. Normally I'd agree although this year has had better outcomes at least in Toronto (Jan 5 and the ice storm - if you want to call that a better outcome than just plain rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is to OB just in case he has one of his freakouts... The first batch of snow may pick up then diminish this morning. That was forecasted. The main snow shield is not expect to arrive until early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light to moderate snow breaking out IMBY. Flake size looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light to moderate snow breaking out IMBY. Flake size looking good. Have temps stabilized iyby? Every time I check in on YYZ they're up another tenth or two of a degree. Starting to grind my teeth a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Have temps stabilized iyby? Every time I check in on YYZ they're up another tenth or two of a degree. Starting to grind my teeth a bit. 32f and holding here. Have slowly warmed from 28f around 6:30. Getting a little concerned as humidity is close to 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 YTZ reporting -RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 YTZ reporting -RA 33f here. Torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 33f here. Torching. Synoptically everything looks great (no major NW shifts) so I really can't explain this. Maybe it's the onshore flow? That'd explain why Hamilton and London are colder. I do think dynamic cooling will take care of a lot of this warmth but my 4-6" call is not on the strongest of foundations right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light snow continuing. Flake size is huge for modest radar returns at best. Coating down so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Light snow continuing. Flake size is huge for modest radar returns at best. Coating down so far. I'm glad it's sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm glad it's sticking. Probably a result of the cooler then normal ground temps with the bitter temps weve had lately. Temp up to 34 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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