Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Can you guys please explain to me what this thing called a "cm" is in detail? Thanks! I dont know what kind of detail your specifically requesting, but here's a few points that may help; * An inch is equivalent to 2.5cm. * 2 inches is equivalent to 5.0cm. * 4 inches is equivalent to 10.0cm * 6 inches is equivalent to 15cm * 12 inches is equivalent to 30cm .......And so forth! I rounded most of them to the nearest whole number. In addition, we use Millimeters (mm) to measure rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I haven't had much of a problem with it. Being from the west coast, temperatures below -5C are extremely rare, so I'm not accustomed to this type of cold. However, it really isn't that bad. It's dry and as long as you are sheltered from the wind and dressed with appropriate layering, you can barely tell that it's the temperature you see on the thermometer. Living downtown I find that I'm very sheltered from the wind (and from the worst of the cold). I don't take the wind chill warnings very seriously. My coworker is from Winnipeg and is having a good laugh at us complainers. The cold is bearable when you dress for it, but it's still an inconvenience. Not entirely sure if this winter is colder than previous ones, or near normal. Seems colder to me, but then again this is the first winter I don't have reliable transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Love the GTA thread idea! Latest run of the CMC is a good example of what can happen if we get under more of a SSW flow with the friday event. Downsloping backs to the SW and we actually see some Lake On precip enhancement across the GTA. Solid 3-4" GTA-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Need the sfc low to pass further south to get a more southerly component. NAM might be overdoing the downsloping to a degree, but attm, going over 2" for Toronto and environs is probably setting yourself up for disappointment. NW flow LES behind the Saturday system looks interesting. Upstream connection and a bit of a convergence feature forming from Lk Huron down to the GTA. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Need the sfc low to pass further south to get a more southerly component. NAM might be overdoing the downsloping to a degree, but attm, going over 2" for Toronto and environs is probably setting yourself up for disappointment. NW flow LES behind the Saturday system looks interesting. Upstream connection and a bit of a convergence feature forming from Lk Huron down to the GTA. Something to keep in mind. I like the 1-2" idea for the City of Toronto personally, with the hammer/burlington area in the 0.5"-1.5" range. Thinking oshawa and the eastern burbs could be near the 2-3" mark as the opportunity for LEhs goes up and downsloping is significantly reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Mean temperature for the month is running -1.1C below normal at YYZ. If models are correct, this month could wind up being as cold or colder than Jan 2009, which had a mean temperature of -8.8C. In comparison, the mean temperature thru Jan 22 is -7.4C at YYZ.. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Must be getting used to the cold. At -14°C this morning it actually felt warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mean temperature for the month is running -1.1C below normal at YYZ. If models are correct, this month could wind up being as cold or colder than Jan 2009, which had a mean temperature of -8.8C. In comparison, the mean temperature thru Jan 22 is -7.4C at YYZ.. Agree? Agree. Hope we can surpass 2009 to make this the coldest in ten years. Doubt we'll surpass 2004, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I like the 1-2" idea for the City of Toronto personally, with the hammer/burlington area in the 0.5"-1.5" range. Thinking oshawa and the eastern burbs could be near the 2-3" mark as the opportunity for LEhs goes up and downsloping is significantly reduced. What are your thoughts for Scarborough? In your analysis, is that included in the eastern burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 My coworker is from Winnipeg and is having a good laugh at us complainers. The cold is bearable when you dress for it, but it's still an inconvenience. Not entirely sure if this winter is colder than previous ones, or near normal. Seems colder to me, but then again this is the first winter I don't have reliable transport. This is definitely a colder than average for southern Ontario. Although I've been home for two and a half years now, I'm still "used" to the type of cold they get in Ottawa on an annual basis, so I'm generally un-phased (pardon the pun) by this. It's actually kind of bemusing to hear my parents panicking about this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Can you guys please explain to me what this thing called a "cm" is in detail? Thanks! Also, in terms of temperatures: 0 Celsius= 32 Fahrenheit minus 7 Celsius = 20F minus 15 Celsius= 5F minus 18 Celsius - zero Fahrenheit minus 20 Celsius = 4 below minus 26 Celsius = 15 below minus 30 Celsius = 22 below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Also, in terms of temperatures: 0 Celsius= 32 Fahrenheit minus 7 Celsius = 20F minus 15 Celsius= 5F minus 18 Celsius - zero Fahrenheit minus 20 Celsius = 4 below minus 26 Celsius = 15 below minus 30 Celsius = 22 below You left out: minus 40 Celsius = 40 below Great idea for a separate thread. I enjoy reading all of the posts about GTA weather, so I will lurk here frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What are your thoughts for Scarborough? In your analysis, is that included in the eastern burbs? Right now there is some major model divergence wrt GTA QPF between the models. Current model summary is as follows, not including any LES on the back side: NAM COBB: 1.2" of snow on 0.08" of QPF(15:1 ratios) GFS COBB: 1.8" of snow on 0.14" of liquid(14:1 ratios) ECMWF: 2.6" given 10:1 ratios RGEM: 0.25-0.35" of QPF GGEM: 0.3-0.4" of QPF Assuming ratios are in the 12:-15:1 range, I think we are looking at a 1-3" event across the GTA(scarborough included). The higher end of guidance is pushing that envelope but don't think that's the most likely scenario given the nature of the flow. Regarding the back end LES, params look pretty good(inversion height above 700, saturated BL, upstream connection and Delta T's in the 20-25c range). Biggest issue is the ice cover IMO, which is increasing pretty quickly over Huron and Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Right now there is some major model divergence wrt GTA QPF between the models. Current model summary is as follows, not including any LES on the back side: NAM COBB: 1.2" of snow on 0.08" of QPF(15:1 ratios) GFS COBB: 1.8" of snow on 0.14" of liquid(14:1 ratios) ECMWF: 2.6" given 10:1 ratios RGEM: 0.25-0.35" of QPF GGEM: 0.3-0.4" of QPF Assuming ratios are in the 12:-15:1 range, I think we are looking at a 1-3" event across the GTA(scarborough included). The higher end of guidance is pushing that envelope but don't think that's the most likely scenario given the nature of the flow. Regarding the back end LES, params look pretty good(inversion height above 700, saturated BL, upstream connection and Delta T's in the 20-25c range). Biggest issue is the ice cover IMO, which is increasing pretty quickly over Huron and Superior. NAM_218_2014012318_F54_44.5000N_81.5000W.png How is the Sunday-Monday event looking to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 SREF plumes for YYZ: min: 1.5" max: 10.5" mean: 6.3" This of course is both clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I think it's reasonable to anticipate total snowfall from tomorrow night thru Sunday night of around 3-5" I would be floored to see 6"+, but I wouldn't be surprised to only see 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To my Canadian friends..took a few pics looking out at your country from the People Mover (train) in downtown Detroit this evening. Pics are looking towards Windsor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 To my Canadian friends..took a few pics looking out at your country from the People Mover (train) in downtown Detroit this evening. Pics are looking towards Windsor Great pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 TWN forecast up 4-6" here - EC forecast holding at 2" tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 RGEM remains bullish with 3-6" across the GTA for saturday's event using 14:1 ratios. Has ramped up QPF compared to last nights runs. NAM/GFS still solidly in the 0.5-1.5" range with a huge GTA gradient setup from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 RGEM remains bullish with 3-6" across the GTA for saturday's event using 14:1 ratios. Has ramped up QPF compared to last nights runs. NAM/GFS still solidly in the 0.5-1.5" range with a huge GTA gradient setup from west to east. rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png Not been impressed with the RGEM's performance this winter. I'm sticking with the drier models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Not been impressed with the RGEM's performance this winter. I'm sticking with the drier models. I'm not changing my original call as well. GTA lake enhancement is showing up on the RGEM which makes little sense considering the flow has a strong SW component and is in line with other models that have strong downsloping. RAP seems to be in agreement with the NAM/HRRR suite as well. The clarington to Brighton corridor is the place to be with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm not changing my original call as well. GTA lake enhancement is showing up on the RGEM which makes little sense considering the flow has a strong SW component and is in line with other models that have strong downsloping. RAP seems to be in agreement with the NAM/HRRR suite as well. The clarington to Brighton corridor is the place to be with this event. Agreed. Better bet is with the Sunday clipper although even that is looking less exciting than a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 EC calling for 10-15 cm between now and Monday morning. I think it's a tad bullish. I'd go with 5-10 cm. I just don't see the enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if this winter actually finishes below normal in terms of snowfall, while experiencing well below normal temps. Cold and dry is not a typical combination for Toronto. All of the recent below normal snowfall winters I can think of 2011-12, 2006-07, 2005-06, 2001-02, 1999-00 had above normal temps. 2009-10 had basically normal temperatures. I think at the end of the day we'll eek out normal snowfall, but just some food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's early, so no one should be claiming victory/conceding defeat yet, but the winds so far have more of a southerly component than the NAM was indicating, per sfc analysis. An indication of this is that the lake band over Lk Ontario is in the process of clipping the Beaches/Bluffs area of Toronto/Scarborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It's early, so no one should be claiming victory/conceding defeat yet, but the winds so far have more of a southerly component than the NAM was indicating, per sfc analysis. An indication of this is that the lake band over Lk Ontario is in the process of clipping the Beaches/Bluffs area of Toronto/Scarborough. I'm going to go with a call of 5-10cm for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm going with 6cm for my backyard. Measuring is going to be near impossible though. Either way I'm a fan of wind, so if we can manage some brief whiteouts, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looking at the latest guidance, there's going to be a sharp west to east snowfall gradient across the GTA. Lesser amounts in the western areas and more towards the east. Here's my call: 1-1.5" Western GTA (Burlington, Oakville, Mississauga) 1.5"-2.5" Western parts of the City of Toronto (Etobicoke) 2.5-3.5" Central parts of the City of Toronto (downtown, East York) 3.5-4.5" Western parts of Scarborough 4.5-5.5" Eastern parts of Scarborough (eg. Rouge Hill) 5.5-6+" Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa, Bomanville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm going with 6cm for my backyard. Measuring is going to be near impossible though. Either way I'm a fan of wind, so if we can manage some brief whiteouts, I'll be happy. Looking at the latest guidance, there's going to be a sharp west to east snowfall gradient across the GTA. Lesser amounts in the western areas and more towards the east. Here's my call: 1-1.5" Western GTA (Burlington, Oakville, Mississauga) 1.5"-2.5" Western parts of the City of Toronto (Etobicoke) 2.5-3.5" Central parts of the City of Toronto (downtown, East York) 3.5-4.5" Western parts of Scarborough 4.5-5.5" Eastern parts of Scarborough (eg. Rouge Hill) 5.5-6+" Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa, Bomanville Is this just for the Friday-Saturday event, or does it include the Sunday event as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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