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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting a Feb '08 redux. I Just see the potential. Right now though I'm trying to take it one storm at a time.

The best experience of my life in the snow-barren western lowlands was Dec'08 when we had 3 storms in a 6 day span, each with 15-25cm dumps. Had about 50 cm on the ground. So the idea of having multiple storms in a short span of time is really, really exciting!

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Pardon my ignorance but where is this? BC?

Sorry!

Yes, western lowlands is the sea-level stretch from Portland to Vancouver basically, where the ocean meets the mountains.

 

Not the place to live if you want snow. Many years we finish with 5-15cm of total snow for the year. Often only a few snowfalls per year

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Sorry!

Yes, western lowlands is the sea-level stretch from Portland to Vancouver basically, where the ocean meets the mountains.

 

Not the place to live if you want snow. Many years we finish with 5-15cm of total snow for the year. Often only a few snowfalls per year

 

Gotchya. That does sound impressive. You guys got a massive dumping around Christmastime 1996 IIRC.

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This definitely has the potential to be a good February for us. Would be great if we could get three storms over the next week (tomorrow, Tuesday/Wednesday and next weekend) and then one more blast of cross polar arctic air.

 

If February can wind up averaging below normal, it will be the first time in years that November, December, January AND February all averaged below normal in Toronto. Remember, this is the first time since 1976-77 that this has happened in Buffalo, despite the fact that this January is apparently (according to News 4) only the 23rd coldest January on record in Buffalo.

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Okay, now I see what happened, I jumped into the middle of a storm so can see your point about snow to rain to snow, that would be my call for the lakeshore only at this point and hope you do verify 10-15 cm, meanwhile certainly fond memories of Dec 2008 here and also Dec 1996 one epic storm 28th, followed by epic melt on New Years Day. We don't get a lot of snow but more than our share of big falls when it does come. Nothing yet this winter, worth mentioning.

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Okay, now I see what happened, I jumped into the middle of a storm so can see your point about snow to rain to snow, that would be my call for the lakeshore only at this point and hope you do verify 10-15 cm, meanwhile certainly fond memories of Dec 2008 here and also Dec 1996 one epic storm 28th, followed by epic melt on New Years Day. We don't get a lot of snow but more than our share of big falls when it does come. Nothing yet this winter, worth mentioning.

 

Just that cold snap in early December, but looks like the cards are aligning for early Feb for another opportunity. Been an awful year for the mountains, though. Very ridgy, dry, foggy

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I had stated what a model output showed, much like I'm doing in regards to next week's system. When the mixing line plays hopscotch over your area, amounts can change quite a bit. I think most agree that this will be somewhat a nowcasting event anyway.

 

I don't appreciate your post; it is unnecessarily antagonistic. I must ask: was there really any need/purpose in selectively quoting my post?

You stated at that time maybe 10 cm. washed away  by rain afterwards.. I had different view at that point after looking at all data, models, etc...as well, .that's all. That was 30 hrs. ago.

 

Almost all winter events are nowcasting once you get about 24 hrs. out.

 

You state your opinion and others do as well. No use playing favorites or getting your knickers in a knot.

Relax and let others enjoy forum as well. Thanks.

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Where we're at less than 24 hours out:

 

GFS- 6"

NAM- 6"

EURO- 6"

RGEM- 6"

EC- 2-4"

 

A 20 mile shift could still easily be the difference between 3" and 8"

 

I still feel good about my 5" call for my house. I still suspect we might get some mixing during the late afternoon

 

It's an out there fantasy but I'd love to see EC update its text forecast around 11pm once most of the 0z suite is in and account for this shift. Won't happen if I live to be a million though. They'll probably hedge their bets with the 5am forecast as well.

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Where we're at less than 24 hours out:

 

GFS- 6"

NAM- 6"

EURO- 6"

RGEM- 6"

EC- 2-4"

 

A 20 mile shift could still easily be the difference between 3" and 8"

 

I still feel good about my 5" call for my house. I still suspect we might get some mixing during the late afternoon

 

Heaviest precip arrives tomorrow evening/night and by then we'll lose the effects of day time heating. Radiant cooling in combination with our snow-pack will help out. 

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You stated at that time maybe 10 cm. washed away  by rain afterwards.. I had different view at that point after looking at all data, models, etc...as well, .that's all. That was 30 hrs. ago.

 

Almost all winter events are nowcasting once you get about 24 hrs. out.

 

You state your opinion and others do as well. No use playing favorites or getting your knickers in a knot.

Relax and let others enjoy forum as well. Thanks.

 

There was no need to quote my post to begin with. It had no beneficial purpose. Please let others enjoy the forum by not singling them out and scrutinizing them out of the blue, thanks in advance!  :wub:

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It's an out there fantasy but I'd love to see EC update its text forecast around 11pm once most of the 0z suite is in and account for this shift. Won't happen if I live to be a million though. They'll probably hedge their bets with the 5am forecast as well.

 

They'll do what they always do.

 

e.g. the February 2013 storm:

 

EC Forecast: 15-25 cm

 

All models sans GEM: 25-35 cm

 

*snows 30-35 cm*

 

EC report: So most snowfall totals were within the 15-25 cm range with some localized spots reaching over 30cm 

*lists all the reports, almost all over 30cm with *s by them saying "unofficial," and the ONLY spot under 25cm being Pearson*

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Where we're at less than 24 hours out:

GFS- 2-4"

NAM- 5-7"

EURO- 5-6"

RGEM- 5-7"

EC- 2-4"

A 20 mile shift could still easily be the difference between 3" and 8"

I still feel good about my 5" call for my house. I still suspect we might get some mixing during the late afternoon

FYP. GFS cobb snowfall is much lower then QPF indicates.
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