Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion

[blizzardof96]

12z ARW goes with 6-8" throughout the GTA with no changeover. NMM has a warmer look with brief change over to rain mid event. QPF in the 1.0-1.2" range GTA wide.

[Snowstorms]

Think you may have the wrong airport code. Here is the euro text data for YYZ via accupro. Considerably cooler...

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            12Z JAN31

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SAT 12Z 01-FEB  -9.0    -6.7    1023      88      79    0.00     549     531    

SAT 18Z 01-FEB  -3.5    -5.2    1018      93      99    0.08     550     536    

SUN 00Z 02-FEB  -1.8    -3.7    1012      98      97    0.30     550     540    

SUN 06Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -3.9    1012      97      98    0.13     547     538    

SUN 12Z 02-FEB  -4.3    -5.5    1016      87      48    0.03     544     531    

SUN 18Z 02-FEB  -2.7    -7.5    1018      70      30    0.00     542     527

 

Oh yes my apologizes. I think that was for Downtown Toronto. 

[snowstormcanuck]

12z ARW goes with 6-8" throughout the GTA with no changeover. NMM has a warmer look with brief change over to rain mid event. QPF in the 1.0-1.2" range GTA wide.

 

Seems like the hi-res models are spitting out more QPF than the GFS/EURO.

[WestCoaster]

Seems like the hi-res models are spitting out more QPF than the GFS/EURO.

 

Quite a bit more.

 

Hi-res have been decent this winter with intensity/micro setup, but have missed the mark on location. I haven't been solidly impressed with any model in particular this year out of the GEM/EURO/GFS either.

[snowstormcanuck]

Quite a bit more.

 

Hi-res have been decent this winter with intensity/micro setup, but have missed the mark on location. I haven't been solidly impressed with any model in particular this year out of the GEM/EURO/GFS either.

 

RGEM's been particularly bad. NAM is the NAM. They both have a tendency to go bonkers on the juice so I'd be surprised if total QPF exceeds 1" anywhere in s-c Ontario. Probably a strip of 0.75" sets up. Wherever that interacts with an airmass cold enough to support mostly snow, there's your 20cm of cement.

[Snowstorms]

Strong choice of words. 

 

Please let me know where I'm off? No indications whatsoever that say that storm will have significantly more than tomorrow's system for us. Weird to despise honesty. I'd rather be realistic than post about how some frozen lakes and a snow pack are going to completely alter the state of atmospheric thermals.

 

If you'd rather I said that I'm excited about the significant amount of snow I will get next week, even though not a single model shows it, then I can.

 

 

Right, but the main track has been consistently south of our region. This thing was initially forecast to pummel northern Georgia and the Carolinas. It's now looking more realistic, but still south.

 

Nobody is punting, Snowstorms is just being (characteristically) dramatic; however, anyone anticipating 20cm+ is probably kidding themselves at this stage.

 

I don't know how you can say it wont be any different than tomorrows event when its still a week out. If you understood the basic laws of meteorology, it would become clear that next weeks event has alot of variables to work with than tomorrows. 

 

I'm stating obvious facts based on how the world of weather works, and the ice/snow theory is a reliable one. Your the one punting away and subjecting to negativity because one or two models didn't qualify your expectations. Models have performed horribly this season and you and I both know that, so why expect any consistency 84+ hours out? The fact that models all agree on some type of storm next week is a good start in my mind. This far out, you will always get a wide variety of solutions till within 60 hours. 

 

I never once said, I expect 20+cm next week. Dont know where you got that from? So how does it make me over dramatic? Again, no hard feelings man! 

[Snowstorms]

12z ARW goes with 6-8" throughout the GTA with no changeover. NMM has a warmer look with brief change over to rain mid event. QPF in the 1.0-1.2" range GTA wide.

wrf_tprecip_nmm_ne_49.png

 

Seems a little over done but a slight shift SE once more would put the entire GTA including downtown in the golden zone. As it stands now, here is what I think will happen. 

 

Downtown Toronto: 4-10cm before a changeover to rain (5-8mm) 

Midtown Toronto (around 401): 8-15cm before a changeover to mixing/rain (<5mm) 

Steeles Avenue and north: (15-20cm) with the potential for mixing though not guaranteed. 

 

Hamilton/Oakville/Burlington: 10cm before a changeover to rain/mixing. Its a sharp cut off just like the Jan 5th storm, but lets hope we can bring temperatures down a bit more. 

[WestCoaster]

I don't know how you can say it wont be any different than tomorrows event when its still a week out. If you understood the basic laws of meteorology, it would become clear that next weeks event has alot of variables to work with than tomorrows. 

 

I'm stating obvious facts based on how the world of weather works, and the ice/snow theory is a reliable one. Your the one punting away and subjecting to negativity because one or two models didn't qualify your expectations. Models have performed horribly this season and you and I both know that, so why expect any consistency 84+ hours out? The fact that models all agree on some type of storm next week is a good start in my mind. This far out, you will always get a wide variety of solutions till within 60 hours. 

 

I never once said, I expect 20+cm next week. Dont know where you got that from? So how does it make me over dramatic? Again, no hard feelings man! 

 

I'm a fourth year atmospheric science student so I would appreciate leaving the "if you understood the basic laws of meteorology" comments out of it, please.

 

I think your recollection of how our conversation went is a bit hazy.

 

Synopsis-

 

Me: "I don't have high expectations with next week's system. Seems to be too south for us to really collect the goods. Amounts seem similar to this system."

 

You: "No offense but this is the reason I despise some of your posts. That storm is still a week out and consistency is far from reach yet your already punting it?"

 

**Note: I said that it seems to be too south to collect the goods (i.e. the bulk of the moisture); how is that punting?

**Note: Models right now show similar amounts to this system, so how on Earth is my comment unrealistic? 

 

You: "I never once said, I expect 20+cm next week. "

 

Well, I said I'm expecting similar amounts to this one (my call was ~12 cm) so given how angry you got over my call, you obviously must be anticipating a 20cm+ or else you wouldn't have gotten so butt-hurt over me suggesting that it looks like similar amounts to this system.

 

In sum: you attacked me for stating what models are showing; if models mean absolutely nothing a week out, then why are you getting on my case in the first place?

[snowstormcanuck]

18z NAM BUFKIT keeps YYZ all snow. After 0z though the bottom couple thousand feet of the atmosphere become marginal. Deep layer of temps of +0.1c - +0.7c. Just cool enough to prevent rain. But before the temps get marginal about 0.7" of QPF is already down.

[snowstormcanuck]

Seems a little over done but a slight shift SE once more would put the entire GTA including downtown in the golden zone. As it stands now, here is what I think will happen. 

 

Downtown Toronto: 4-10cm before a changeover to rain (5-8mm) 

Midtown Toronto (around 401): 8-15cm before a changeover to mixing/rain (<5mm) 

Steeles Avenue and north: (15-20cm) with the potential for mixing though not guaranteed. 

 

Hamilton/Oakville/Burlington: 10cm before a changeover to rain/mixing. Its a sharp cut off just like the Jan 5th storm, but lets hope we can bring temperatures down a bit more. 

 

Why do Oakville and Burlington do better than downtown Toronto?

[WestCoaster]

Right now I'm thinking 10cm near the lake (including southern 'sauga, Burlington, Oakville, around to Hamilton, etc); 10-15cm between Bloor and 401; 401 north likely around 15 cm.

 

In terms of rain, I think 5mm isn't out of the question for south of Bloor/around the lake/horseshoe, maybe a brief change over between Bloor and 401, and I am not anticipating a change over for 401 north.

[snowstormcanuck]

btw...should be a good storm for the nipher tomorrow. Heavy, wet snow. Little wind.

[Snowstorms]

I'm a fourth year atmospheric science student so I would appreciate leaving the "if you understood the basic laws of meteorology" comments out of it, please.

 

I think your recollection of how our conversation went is a bit hazy.

 

Synopsis-

 

Me: "I don't have high expectations with next week's system. Seems to be too south for us to really collect the goods. Amounts seem similar to this system."

 

You: "No offense but this is the reason I despise some of your posts. That storm is still a week out and consistency is far from reach yet your already punting it?"

 

**Note: I said that it seems to be too south to collect the goods (i.e. the bulk of the moisture); how is that punting?

**Note: Models right now show similar amounts to this system, so how on Earth is my comment unrealistic? 

 

You: "I never once said, I expect 20+cm next week. "

 

Well, I said I'm expecting similar amounts to this one (my call was ~12 cm) so given how angry you got over my call, you obviously must be anticipating a 20cm+ or else you wouldn't have gotten so butt-hurt over me suggesting that it looks like similar amounts to this system.

 

In sum: you attacked me for stating what models are showing; if models mean absolutely nothing a week out, then why are you getting on my case in the first place?

 

Well if you are a 4th year student, It would be great if you had a more scientific analogy to your posts and thats a compliment btw. 

 

Well let me make it more clear as to what I said. Since the storm is still a week out YOUR the one saying "I dont high expectations", "seems similar to this storm", when in actual reality it does not. I can pop out a weather map and show you how different tomorrows and next weeks events are but I'm sure you understand how the laws of meteorology work. 

 

We all have our personal opinions and thats perfectly fine, but you always have this charisma to put some negativity in your posts on weather events that are far from reach and thats why I said "despise". Seems a bit harsh, but I should have expanded on it. 

 

Its still a week out and I dont think we should be arguing about a storm that far out -_-. So **** this argument. 

[snowstormcanuck]

It's going to snow tomorrow! Let's not bicker.

[Snowstorms]

18z NAM BUFKIT keeps YYZ all snow. After 0z though the bottom couple thousand feet of the atmosphere become marginal. Deep layer of temps of +0.1c - +0.7c. Just cool enough to prevent rain. But before the temps get marginal about 0.7" of QPF is already down.

 

 

Why do Oakville and Burlington do better than downtown Toronto?

 

 

btw...should be a good storm for the nipher tomorrow. Heavy, wet snow. Little wind.

 

 Interesting! A 50 Mile shift SE would do wonders for many of us. Again very temperature dependent but it holds alot of resemblance to the Jan 5th storm and the Feb 5-6th storm back in 08.

 

Oakville/Burlington suburbs away from the Lake, lol. They always seem to itch in some low level cooling during storms which is why I said slightly more. 

 

Tomorrow shall be the day EC can't be conservative on amounts if areas around it receive more and they suddenly receive less.

[blizzardof96]

Currently liking a 3-6" call in the city with the potential for 6-9" north of the 401. BTW, euro ENS prob maps from wxbell have a 60-70% chance of YYZ exceeding the foot mark by friday.

[BuffaloWeather]

For early next weeks system.

 

WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. EC AND GFS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPS ALOFT...GFS IS
A LITTLE WARMER AND IMPLIES A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER ON WEDNESDAY...EC IS NOW COLDER WITH ALL SNOW. BOTH MODELS
PLACE A STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THIS DEFORMATION ZONE...AND
WITH THE SO-CALLED "WRAP AROUND" SNOW PATTERN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL A
DRYING AND EVENTUAL CLEARING TREND TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

[WestCoaster]

Snowstorms:

 

What it comes down to is that I stated what my (pretty reasonable) expectations about next week's system at this stage, and you jumped on me for being "negative" without reason.

 

Models in general have shown possibilities ranging from 10-20cm. Given this system looks like 10-15cm range, my statement of not having hopes of accumulations much higher than this one is completely reasonable and was not worthy of your aggression. I genuinely think you owe me an apology. You can't randomly hit somebody with a 2 by 4 and then clap your hands and say "Not worth arguing over it! F it!"; it's like a drive by shooting.

[Roger Smith]

Saturday night looks like the sort of event where it starts out with a light sleety rain and gradually the mix gets better until it's all snow after midnight (speaking of the GTA lakeshore to about Bloor St, more like 50-50 mix rapidly to all snow further inland). Totals about 4-7 cm.

 

Wednesday could be the motherlode (70% confidence I spelled that right) if it happens to deepen 5-10 mb closer to event, then it looks very very similar to a 16" storm 01-22/23-1966 which I recall from measuring it in my back yard. The way it looks now on maps I would say 8-12" or 20-30 cm potential. Nice, you guys are overdue. Hope it happens that way. Obviously dependent on track issues, you don't want any more northward shift now. Still could mix briefly at onset. That's okay, 02-25-1965 mixed briefly too (even in G'town I had a bit of rain among the 17" of snow) and that was a humungous dumping anyway. That's another analogue in the set. I think a lot of T.O. 10"+ storms get a slight mix, just a hazard of combining maximum moisture with lake meso-scale issues.

 

Feb 9-10 and 14-15 also give hints of significant snowfalls. Could be a monster month if everything works out right. And then there's the March 1st blizzard. More about that later.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

Saturday night looks like the sort of event where it starts out with a light sleety rain and gradually the mix gets better until it's all snow after midnight (speaking of the GTA lakeshore to about Bloor St, more like 50-50 mix rapidly to all snow further inland). Totals about 4-7 cm.

 

 

All due respect Roger, this has no basis in reality.

 

edit: unless you're talking about some sort of changeover back to snow after the initial front end thump.

[harrisale]

Westcoaster, Snowstorms. We appreciate the meteorological input but can we stop Accuweather'ing the thread and take it to PM with the personal stuff? Thanks.

I'll be up in Guelph tonight and tomorrow so hopefully should see some good totals there. Will post an Oakville measurement when I get home so we can see what verified.

[blizzardof96]

18z GFS soundings indicating all snow along and north of the 401, albeit a bit of a northerly trend compared to 12z. 0.5-0.7" of QPF for the golden horseshoe with some mixing along the lake.

[Roger Smith]

So you're expecting all snow or snow to rain back to snow? I could see that being the case, maybe I just picked up mid-event there. What's the consensus of forecasts around town? In any case Wednesday will overshadow them, just as the Super Bowl will overshadow Groundhog Day (thank God for small mercies).

 

 

All due respect Roger, this has no basis in reality.

 

edit: unless you're talking about some sort of changeover back to snow after the initial front end thump

 

 

[WestCoaster]

So you're expecting all snow or snow to rain back to snow? I could see that being the case, maybe I just picked up mid-event there. What's the consensus of forecasts around town? In any case Wednesday will overshadow them, just as the Super Bowl will overshadow Groundhog Day (thank God for small mercies).

 

For the GTA as a whole I think most of us are expecting 10-15cm

[snowstormcanuck]

So you're expecting all snow or snow to rain back to snow? I could see that being the case, maybe I just picked up mid-event there. What's the consensus of forecasts around town? In any case Wednesday will overshadow them, just as the Super Bowl will overshadow Groundhog Day (thank God for small mercies).

 

It'll be snow to rain to snow, snow to rain, or just snow. But there's nothing to indicate attm that precipitation will start out as rain.

[Torontonian]

Yup, saw that coming. 12Z Euro follows the Canadian's lead and spits out about 10 cm of snow and 10 mm of rain, resulting in nada.

 

 

Would disagree a bit here.

 

All snow on Saturday. No rain.

Shades of Colorado low with mostly below zero temps.

 

The event on Feb 5th is coming from Texas apparently. 

Usually lows from this area produce good snows for us as well.

 

Definitely two events over next week,  that may make snow lovers happy.

 

24 hrs. ago these views were posted.

The first poster said what we get will add up to nothing in end.

I disagreed.

 

Now there is talk of accumulations of over 6 inches in parts of GTA for Saturdays event.

 

The Feb 5th -6th is getting good hype as well already;   it will be more significant.

 

 

Have been watching weather, with an amateur meteorological perspective, for last 30 yrs. which has had some benefits for me.

Even being on this forum since-before the memorable 2007-2005 winter was very educating.

Remember back then SSC, eh.

 

This winter feels 07-08 like with decent snowfalls upcoming.

[WestCoaster]

24 hrs. ago these views were posted.

The first poster said what we get will add up to nothing in end.

I disagreed.

 

Now there is talk of accumulations of over 6 inches in parts of GTA for Saturdays event.

 

The Feb 5th -6th is getting good hype as well already;   it will be more significant.

 

 

Have been watching weather, with an amateur meteorological perspective, for last 30 yrs. which has had some benefits for me.

Even being on this forum since-before the memorable 2007-2005 winter was very educating.

Remember back then SSC, eh.

 

This winter feels 07-08 like with decent snowfalls upcoming.

 

I had stated what a model output showed, much like I'm doing in regards to next week's system. When the mixing line plays hopscotch over your area, amounts can change quite a bit. I think most agree that this will be somewhat a nowcasting event anyway.

 

I don't appreciate your post; it is unnecessarily antagonistic. I must ask: was there really any need/purpose in selectively quoting my post? This type of post is treading the fine line of stooping to Snowstorm's level of needless attacking. I don't think there is a place for that mentality on this forum.

[snowstormcanuck]

24 hrs. ago these views were posted.

The first poster said what we get will add up to nothing in end.

I disagreed.

 

Now there is talk of accumulations of over 6 inches in parts of GTA for Saturdays event.

 

The Feb 5th -6th is getting good hype as well already;   it will be more significant.

 

 

Have been watching weather, with an amateur meteorological perspective, for last 30 yrs. which has had some benefits for me.

Even being on this forum since-before the memorable 2007-2005 winter was very educating.

Remember back then SSC, eh.

 

This winter feels 07-08 like with decent snowfalls upcoming.

 

Yeah, if it unfolds like the models are showing the next 10 days this Feb is going to be very similar to Feb 08.

[WestCoaster]

Yeah, if it unfolds like the models are showing the next 10 days this Feb is going to be very similar to Feb 08.

 

Potential is there for goods.

 

Also there for major disappointment.

 

Either way, I'm excited. I'm going to be exhausted at the end of this month, surely.

[snowstormcanuck]

Potential is there for goods.

 

Also there for major disappointment.

 

Either way, I'm excited. I'm going to be exhausted at the end of this month, surely.

 

Yeah, I'm definitely not expecting a Feb '08 redux. I Just see the potential. Right now though I'm trying to take it one storm at a time.