snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What's the problem? Yeah, I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In some good news, the 18z NAM is slightly colder and snowier for tomorrow. Still changes to rain, but not until after 7 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In some good news, the 18z NAM is slightly colder and snowier for tomorrow. Still changes to rain, but not until after 7 or so. I'm guessing either a WSW or a snowfall warning along and north of a Sarnia-Waterloo-Peterborough line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm guessing either a WSW or a snowfall warning along and north of a Sarnia-Waterloo-Peterborough line. Hopefully they'll do it in time for the 3:30 forecast update. And here's this from Natasha Ramsahai at CityNews: https://twitter.com/CityNatasha/status/429332144000094208 As you said earlier, this will likely come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm guessing either a WSW or a snowfall warning along and north of a Sarnia-Waterloo-Peterborough line. 18z NAM going big along and north of the 401. Could see some very impressive rates wherever precip stays as all snow. Yet to look over forecast soundings, but suspect the 850mb layer isn't the warmest point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tomorrow smells like a January 5th like nowcasting event. More potential with tomorrow's event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hopefully they'll do it in time for the 3:30 forecast update. And here's this from Natasha Ramsahai at CityNews: https://twitter.com/CityNatasha/status/429332144000094208 As you said earlier, this will likely come down to nowcasting. Hope that's not the same model that was forecasting the LES storm last week. I think I'm going to bump my call for most of Toronto to 4-6". Snowstorms and OB could go 6"+. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z NAM going big along and north of the 401. Could see some very impressive rates wherever precip stays as all snow. Yet to look over forecast soundings, but suspect the 850mb layer isn't the warmest point. Haven't seen them either but I'll hazard a guess that the ugly +3c nose of warmth at 800mb has cooled off a bit or's been delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Temperature now up to 0.1C at YYZ. -_- You can never win living in the GTA. Amazing how easily some forget that a year ago we witnessed one of the biggest snowfalls since WWII... but I guess we 'never' win. I'm going to go with 12cm IMBY. Any more than that I'll consider this system a big win. Real fun gets going next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z Nam comes in cooler and stays predominantly snow north of 401 with amounts of >=15cm. Again this is based on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hope that's not the same model that was forecasting the LES storm last week. I think I'm going to bump my call for most of Toronto to 4-6". Snowstorms and OB could go 6"+. Final call. I hope not. She showed another in-house model run this morning which gives 11 cm of snow and 10 mm of rain for Toronto.That's a good call for Toronto. More like 10-12 cm downtown/lakeshore and 12-15 cm midtown/hwy. 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Happy you guys are going to finally get a decent hit with this one. Hoping the Feb 4-5 storm gives us a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Amazing how easily some forget that a year ago we witnessed one of the biggest snowfalls since WWII... but I guess we 'never' win. I'm going to go with 12cm IMBY. Any more than that I'll consider this system a big win. Real fun gets going next week. I don't have high expectations with next week's system. Seems to be too south for us to really collect the goods. Amounts seem similar to this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Haven't seen them either but I'll hazard a guess that the ugly +3c nose of warmth at 800mb has cooled off a bit or's been delayed. Your right. Sounding looks below zero for the entirety of the event along and north of the 401. 800-1000mb layer hugging the 0c mark as close as you can get. Heavy rates helping... but a 50km shift SE would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Happy you guys are going to finally get a decent hit with this one. Hoping the Feb 4-5 storm gives us a decent hit. Nice bullseye I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Happy you guys are going to finally get a decent hit with this one. Hoping the Feb 4-5 storm gives us a decent hit. Rain will possibly eat away at most of the accumulations sadly. Still waiting for a lasting widespread synoptic 6"+ dump that we've yet to really see this winter. No one is going to see north of 7" with this system even if we get really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Rain will possibly eat away at most of the accumulations sadly. Still waiting for a lasting widespread synoptic 6"+ dump that we've yet to really see this winter. Trends have been good the last few runs. Even a bit of rain and +1 isn't going to eat away 4 or 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nice bullseye I You guys are right in there to though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Trends have been good the last few runs. Even a bit of rain and +1 isn't going to eat away 4 or 5" of snow. Of course not, but not seeing 4"+ on the ground after all is said and done is a bit of a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't have high expectations with next week's system. Seems to be too south for us to really collect the goods. Amounts seem similar to this system. No offense but this is the reason I despise some of your posts. That storm is still a week out and consistency is far from reach yet your already punting it? One thing is clear, that storm will have much more moisture to work with than tomorrows event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETINISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:15 PM EST FRIDAY 31 JANUARY 2014.--------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:=NEW= CALEDON=NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION=NEW= UXBRIDGE - BEAVERTON - NORTHERN DURHAM REGION=NEW= HURON - PERTH=NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL=NEW= GREY - BRUCE=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND=NEW= PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES=NEW= STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC=NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK=NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE=NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA=NEW= GATINEAU=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL=NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA=NEW= HALIBURTON=NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY. 15 CENTIMETRES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 No offense but this is the reason I despise some of your posts. That storm is still a week out and consistency is far from reach yet your already punting it? One thing is clear, that storm will have much more moisture to work with than tomorrows event. Strong choice of words. Please let me know where I'm off? No indications whatsoever that say that storm will have significantly more than tomorrow's system for us. Weird to despise honesty. I'd rather be realistic than post about how some frozen lakes and a snow pack are going to completely alter the state of atmospheric thermals. If you'd rather I said that I'm excited about the significant amount of snow I will get next week, even though not a single model shows it, then I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro for YYZ 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB -7.0 -5.7 1023 93 90 0.00 551 533 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -2.0 -3.8 1018 89 100 0.09 552 538 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -0.3 -2.7 1012 97 98 0.28 552 542 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 0.3 -2.3 1012 98 96 0.18 549 540 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -2.7 -5.0 1016 89 68 0.08 546 534 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.0 -6.9 1019 71 32 0.01 544 530 Sharp cutoff. It came in a bit SE. We just need another slight SE shift....come on! We'll lose daytime heating long before temperatures are expected to go above freezing. Thats another key point! Think you may have the wrong airport code. Here is the euro text data for YYZ via accupro. Considerably cooler... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z JAN31 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB -9.0 -6.7 1023 88 79 0.00 549 531 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -3.5 -5.2 1018 93 99 0.08 550 536 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -1.8 -3.7 1012 98 97 0.30 550 540 SUN 06Z 02-FEB -1.3 -3.9 1012 97 98 0.13 547 538 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -4.3 -5.5 1016 87 48 0.03 544 531 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.7 -7.5 1018 70 30 0.00 542 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Environment Canada is calling for snow on Wednesday for all of southern Ontario. Usually they put a 60 or 70 percent chance at this time range, but for them to put just snow in the public forecast is a sign they're confident that it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Environment Canada is calling for snow on Wednesday for all of southern Ontario. Usually they put a 60 or 70 percent chance at this time range, but for them to put just snow in the public forecast is a sign they're confident that it'll happen. Snow seems like a lock next week, it really comes down to amounts. Right now anywhere in the 10-15cm range seems about right. Upper amounts of 20cm if it tracks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Think you may have the wrong airport code. Here is the euro text data for YYZ via accupro. Considerably cooler... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z JAN31 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB -9.0 -6.7 1023 88 79 0.00 549 531 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -3.5 -5.2 1018 93 99 0.08 550 536 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -1.8 -3.7 1012 98 97 0.30 550 540 SUN 06Z 02-FEB -1.3 -3.9 1012 97 98 0.13 547 538 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -4.3 -5.5 1016 87 48 0.03 544 531 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.7 -7.5 1018 70 30 0.00 542 527 Solid 6" there; but then again, it's the Euro... (never thought I'd say that!) Somewhere between the Canadian and the Euro lies the answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Snow seems like a lock next week, it really comes down to amounts. Right now anywhere in the 10-15cm range seems about right. Upper amounts of 20cm if it tracks north. Next weeks storm will have double the moisture than this system. Track will depend on how much YYZ receives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Environment Canada is calling for snow on Wednesday for all of southern Ontario. Usually they put a 60 or 70 percent chance at this time range, but for them to put just snow in the public forecast is a sign they're confident that it'll happen. That whole 60/70% stuff is new though. For the longest time they'd go categorical in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Next weeks storm will have double the moisture than this system. Track will depend on how much YYZ receives. Right, but the main track has been consistently south of our region. This thing was initially forecast to pummel northern Georgia and the Carolinas. It's now looking more realistic, but still south. Nobody is punting, Snowstorms is just being (characteristically) dramatic; however, anyone anticipating 20cm+ is probably kidding themselves at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Snow seems like a lock next week, it really comes down to amounts. Right now anywhere in the 10-15cm range seems about right. Upper amounts of 20cm if it tracks north. That's a good guess at this point. Some of the dates that the GFS CIPS analog system gave out last night for this system gave 10-15 of snow. They include Jan 31/82, Feb 3/82 and Feb 16/93. I remember the last date very well. A few days later on Feb 21-22, 1993, another 15-25 cm fell in Toronto. Could history repeat itself next week with a potential storm around the Feb 8-10 mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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