Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If this is copied and pasted wrong, my apologizes as I'm on my phone,but here is the 12z Euro text for YYZ. Weekend storm btw; 12Z JAN30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 01-FEB -3.7 -4.8 1019 93 99 0.08 551 536 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -1.3 -2.3 1011 95 99 0.30 552 543 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 1.9 -0.9 1006 94 97 0.32 548 544 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -0.7 -5.0 1009 84 59 0.13 542 535 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 -9.9 1015 68 34 0.00 538 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup, saw that coming. 12Z Euro follows the Canadian's lead and spits out about 10 cm of snow and 10 mm of rain, resulting in nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup, saw that coming. 12Z Euro follows the Canadian's lead and spits out about 10 cm of snow and 10 mm of rain, resulting in nada. Would disagree a bit here. All snow on Saturday. No rain. Shades of Colorado low with mostly below zero temps. The event on Feb 5th is coming from Texas apparently. Usually lows from this area produce good snows for us as well. Definitely two events over next week, that may make snow lovers happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Would disagree a bit here. All snow on Saturday. No rain. Shades of Colorado low with mostly below zero temps. The event on Feb 5th is coming from Texas apparently. Usually lows from this area produce good snows for us as well. Definitely two events over next week, that may make snow lovers happy. The warming trend is undeniable now. I believe north of the 401 still has a chance at something decent. I don't see much more then a couple sloppy inches along the lakeshore followed by rain followed by some light accumulations. I like using the NWS for my weather since I am right on the lakeshore which is closer (as the crow flies) to Fort Niagara NY then I am to the numerous parts of the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20140130180000_NAIS25ECT_0007492818.gif Incredible ice cover across the Lakes currently. This IMO will decrease the chances of temperatures winding up as warm as the models show for this weekends storm. Time will tell but I think they're overestimating the WAA and downplaying the CAD. This plus the snow cover IMO will create enough radiant cooling to keep temperatures aloft and at the SFC below freezing. DTown may see temperatures creep up slightly above freezing for a few hours though. A shift of 50 miles SE could make a worlds difference, so lets hope for that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20140130180000_NAIS25ECT_0007492818.gif Incredible ice cover across the Lakes currently. This IMO will decrease the chances of temperatures winding up as warm as the models show for this weekends storm. Time will tell but I think they're overestimating the WAA and downplaying the CAD. This plus the snow cover IMO will create enough radiant cooling to keep temperatures aloft and at the SFC below freezing. DTown may see temperatures creep up slightly above freezing for a few hours though. A shift of 50 miles SE could make a worlds difference, so lets hope for that!! Got to admire your optimism. Not much we can do but Im thinking a quick burst of snow and then rain. It appears the mid week system is quickly going to the NW as well. Buffalo is mentioning mixed with that system. I would rather -15C and 5-10cm twice a week. But I guess that couldn't last forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 squall along the clipper's cold front trying to work its way into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 squall along the clipper's cold front trying to work its way into the city. It looks like a quick burst of heavy snow on radar. Maybe 1 or 2 cm with this. Temps currently close to freezing in downtown Toronto (around -1C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25ECT/20140130180000_NAIS25ECT_0007492818.gif Incredible ice cover across the Lakes currently. This IMO will decrease the chances of temperatures winding up as warm as the models show for this weekends storm. Time will tell but I think they're overestimating the WAA and downplaying the CAD. This plus the snow cover IMO will create enough radiant cooling to keep temperatures aloft and at the SFC below freezing. DTown may see temperatures creep up slightly above freezing for a few hours though. A shift of 50 miles SE could make a worlds difference, so lets hope for that!! Just pointing out that temperatures aloft from a new air mass are not influenced in any capacity by snow pack or lake ice. Based on what you are saying, you expect ice pellets, not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It looks like a quick burst of heavy snow on radar. Maybe 1 or 2 cm with this. Temps currently close to freezing in downtown Toronto (around -1C). Nope. The band weakened considerably as it reached Toronto. Probably downsloping again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nope. The band weakened considerably as it reached Toronto. Probably downsloping again. Pearson picked up 0.4cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Pearson picked up 0.4cm. Just a few flurries downtown last night. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow event. Based on the latest models, I'd say 75% of the precip will fall as snow and 25% rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just a few flurries downtown last night. Looking forward to tomorrow's snow event. Based on the latest models, I'd say 75% of the precip will fall as snow and 25% rain. NAM finally backed off a bit, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tomorrow smells like a January 5th like nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like it could be a heavy wet snow, perhaps not unlike the late February storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tomorrow smells like a January 5th like nowcasting event. Agree. If the precip rates are heavy enough, I think we stay mainly snow, even if the 850 mb temps are slightly above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Agree. If the precip rates are heavy enough, I think we stay mainly snow, even if the 850 mb temps are slightly above freezing. By evening tomorrow, NAM is way too warm aloft to support snow even with + rates. Going to need this storm to nudge a little further south still to make it a mostly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 By evening tomorrow, NAM is way too warm aloft to support snow even with + rates. Going to need this storm to nudge a little further south still to make it a mostly snow event. The NAM and RGEM were showing the warmest temps during the Jan 5th storm. A 50 mile shift SE, could have huge implications on what kind of precip we end up seeing. I think those north of 401 will stay predominantly snow with amounts greater than 15cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow, the temperature sky rocketed at YYZ. Currently 0.0C. Now im worried about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow, the temperature sky rocketed at YYZ. Currently 0.0C. Now im worried about tomorrow. It's just a touch above the forecasted high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't worry, the lakes are frozen over and we've got a snow pack!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 will this be a net gain snow producer? I know were going to see rain but I have 15cm of snow on the ground and with 5-10cm coming I am hoping to have about the same if not a couple cms more after the "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro for YYZ 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB -7.0 -5.7 1023 93 90 0.00 551 533 SAT 18Z 01-FEB -2.0 -3.8 1018 89 100 0.09 552 538 SUN 00Z 02-FEB -0.3 -2.7 1012 97 98 0.28 552 542 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 0.3 -2.3 1012 98 96 0.18 549 540 SUN 12Z 02-FEB -2.7 -5.0 1016 89 68 0.08 546 534 SUN 18Z 02-FEB -2.0 -6.9 1019 71 32 0.01 544 530 Sharp cutoff. It came in a bit SE. We just need another slight SE shift....come on! We'll lose daytime heating long before temperatures are expected to go above freezing. Thats another key point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GGEM also nudged a bit SE. North of 401 it stays all snow. Even in Downtown, 75-80% of the precip falls as snow. This storm just like the Jan 5th storm will bear down to now-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 will this be a net gain snow producer? I know were going to see rain but I have 15cm of snow on the ground and with 5-10cm coming I am hoping to have about the same if not a couple cms more after the "storm" We'll have to account for melting today. I'm already at +1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nice, always like to see a last minute EURO correction in our favour. Usually plays out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Temperature now up to 0.1C at YYZ. -_- You can never win living in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think I'm going to forecast 5" of snow and 5 mm of rain. My best event since December 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Temperature now up to 0.1C at YYZ. -_- You can never win living in the GTA. What's the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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