snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No threat at all. Maybe a few inches tops. cite your authority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 cite your authority. His place of residence lies in the heart of the snow-dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 cite your authority. GFS: 3-4" NAM: 4-5" RGEM: 4" followed by "wintry mix" aka snow-eating rain Euro: QPF which could support ~5" but very iffy to call precip type Areas near the lake are going to struggle with ratios. Good shot of this turning to rain down here. I'd be surprised to see amounts this high, so they are likely the upper limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 BTW 12z euro ensemble mean has 4.5" of snow for YYZ from the weekend system. Latest GFS run had 5-7", with considerable ENS support. Mixing line going to be close, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 His place of residence lies in the heart of the snow-dome. Thanks for reminding me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 No threat at all. Maybe a few inches tops. The models are all over the place? Thats a bold statement to make. Buffalo NWS is mentioning that it may be advisory level snows, and could possibly stay all snow over the niagara frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 BTW 12z euro ensemble mean has 4.5" of snow for YYZ from the weekend system. Latest GFS run had 5-7", with considerable ENS support. Mixing line going to be close, however. In my opinion, I think the models are too warm. With the PV still lurking around and decent snow-pack, we can work in some CAD, thus keeping the surface and lower thermals cooler than what the models depict. Models tend to overplay the WAA sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 In my opinion, I think the models are too warm. With the PV still lurking around and decent snow-pack, we can work in some CAD. thus keeping the surface and lower thermals cooler than what the models depict. Models tend to overplay the WAA sometimes. Depends where you are I'm siding with the GEM right now. I'm anticipating 3 wet inches downtown and 6" for most of you. I think the Feb 4-5 storm is much more interesting. It could be a total slider (which I'm expecting) but the juice potential with that one is exciting. This weekend's event is lacking punch. Not seeing much lake enhancement potential either. Ratios will be absolute crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS: 3-4" NAM: 4-5" RGEM: 4" followed by "wintry mix" aka snow-eating rain Euro: QPF which could support ~5" but very iffy to call precip type Areas near the lake are going to struggle with ratios. Good shot of this turning to rain down here. I'd be surprised to see amounts this high, so they are likely the upper limit. Fair enough. By a few inches I thought you meant a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 In my opinion, I think the models are too warm. With the PV still lurking around and decent snow-pack, we can work in some CAD, thus keeping the surface and lower thermals cooler than what the models depict. Models tend to overplay the WAA sometimes. I agree. More worried about a thin warm layers in the BL. 925mb temps appear to be pretty close to zero on the euro, but nam and gfs have a little more wiggle room. Cut off is going to be sharp obviously, and if we get a GFS like solution, going to be a lot of surprised torontonian's this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Fair enough. By a few inches I thought you meant a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Depends where you are I'm siding with the GEM right now. I'm anticipating 3 wet inches downtown and 6" for most of you. I think the Feb 4-5 storm is much more interesting. It could be a total slider (which I'm expecting) but the juice potential with that one is exciting. This weekend's event is lacking punch. Not seeing much lake enhancement potential either. Ratios will be absolute crap Actually I'm looking forward to getting some low-ratio (eg. 7:1 to 10:1) snow for a change (better for a picturesque landscape/snowpack). Most of the snow this winter has been of the high-ratio and fluffy type, which is okay, but it "shrinks" too easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I agree. More worried about a thin warm layers in the BL. 925mb temps appear to be pretty close to zero on the euro, but nam and gfs have a little more wiggle room. Cut off is going to be sharp obviously, and if we get a GFS like solution, going to be a lot of surprised torontonian's this weekend. Yup. A decent snow pack isn't going to save you with 850 mb temps solidly above 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 seems arbitrary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yup. A decent snow pack isn't going to save you with 850 mb temps solidly above 0. No models show this ATM beisdes the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Depends where you are I'm siding with the GEM right now. I'm anticipating 3 wet inches downtown and 6" for most of you. I think the Feb 4-5 storm is much more interesting. It could be a total slider (which I'm expecting) but the juice potential with that one is exciting. This weekend's event is lacking punch. Not seeing much lake enhancement potential either. Ratios will be absolute crap With most of the Lakes nearly frozen over, their isnt any body of water that can regulate temperatures to keep the surface warmer. I think the mixing line will stay south of the Niagara region keeping the entire GTA including downtown in the cold sector. Expect for your area, most of the GTA has atleast 4" of snow on the ground, lol. Snow ratios are questionable but away from the Lake I favor 10:1. I agree. More worried about a thin warm layers in the BL. 925mb temps appear to be pretty close to zero on the euro, but nam and gfs have a little more wiggle room. Cut off is going to be sharp obviously, and if we get a GFS like solution, going to be a lot of surprised torontonian's this weekend. We've seen such situations numerous times this Winter and none have played out to what the models showed. With the Weak SE ridge across the south, a suppressed track is out of the question. I dont think models can pick up Lake temperatures and Ice build-up and could possibly be throwing a wrench in the SFC and Lower thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Prelim call for Toronto 2-4". That number incorporates mixing problems which although not likely at this point, are still a possibility. Could be a 4-6" deal if we indeed do stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 3" on the ground here. I echo SSC on this one. 2-4" of wet snow or, if we luck out, a 4-6" gradient could set up north of the city. I don't understand how anyone can state that there is no moderating effects from the lakes anymore. Lake Ontario is barely frozen at all. There's a reason that Billy Bishop is still regularly about 3C warmer than YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 With most of the Lakes nearly frozen over, their isnt any body of water that can regulate temperatures to keep the surface warmer. I think the mixing line will stay south of the Niagara region keeping the entire GTA including downtown in the cold sector. Expect for your area, most of the GTA has atleast 4" of snow on the ground, lol. Snow ratios are questionable but away from the Lake I favor 10:1. We've seen such situations numerous times this Winter and none have played out to what the models showed. With the Weak SE ridge across the south, a suppressed track is out of the question. I dont think models can pick up Lake temperatures and Ice build-up and could possibly be throwing a wrench in the SFC and Lower thermals. Agree, very few thermal problems with the early Jan storm/ice storm, contrary to original expectations. Could be a similar case this time, but thinking SSC's call sounds good for now. Can even see a 7-8" max if all goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Agree, very few thermal problems with the early Jan storm/ice storm, contrary to original expectations. Could be a similar case this time, but agree completely with SSC's call. Can even see a 7-8" max if all goes right. 7-8" I saw rain with the early January storm, so thermals were an issue. Snowstorms was one of the few who never switched over to rain and remained +SN for hours on end. That storm met most of our expectations realistically (well, SSC spiralled into hysteria briefly and started punting out of spite but got himself back together). I think I got about 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 7-8" I saw rain with the early January storm, so thermals were an issue. Snowstorms was one of the few who never switched over to rain and remained +SN for hours on end. That storm met most of our expectations realistically (well, SSC spiralled into hysteria briefly and started punting out of spite but got himself back together). I think I got about 5"? Don't get me wrong, not expecting amounts like that in the city itself. If track/thermals work together perfectly, you get a solution akin to the GFS which has a 6-7" max along the west end of lake ontario(west and north of the GTA). I think that's not out of the question at this point. With the early Jan storm, I expected to get over 5-10mm of rain and all we saw was some PL and light freezing drizzle instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Don't get me wrong, not expecting amounts like that in the city itself. If track/thermals work together perfectly, you get a solution akin to the GFS which has a 6-7" max along the west end of lake ontario(west and north of the GTA). I think that's not out of the question at this point. With the early Jan storm, I expected to get over 5-10mm of rain and all we saw was some PL and light freezing drizzle instead. I got That was such a sad day for all of us. We need not relive it. Although some may argue it was never our storm... it truly was for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 3" on the ground here. I echo SSC on this one. 2-4" of wet snow or, if we luck out, a 4-6" gradient could set up north of the city. I don't understand how anyone can state that there is no moderating effects from the lakes anymore. Lake Ontario is barely frozen at all. There's a reason that Billy Bishop is still regularly about 3C warmer than YYZ I have about 25-30cm on the ground in my area. And Lake temperatures are running below normal currently. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/loofs/fore_temp.shtml Lake Ontario is shallow and doesn't freeze over unlike the other Lakes. However, that doesn't mean its "warm". Agree, very few thermal problems with the early Jan storm/ice storm, contrary to original expectations. Could be a similar case this time, but thinking SSC's call sounds good for now. Can even see a 7-8" max if all goes right. Agree. 5-10cm is a good call right now. During the early Jan storm, I got 15cm with no PL or ZR. Temperatures at YYZ with that storm never got above freezing. Models mishandled the thermals and the CAD that worked in across the SFC. We saw a similar scenario during the Ice Storm as well. Lets see. I hope we get atleast 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have about 25-30cm on the ground in my area. And Lake temperatures are running below normal currently. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/loofs/fore_temp.shtml Lake Ontario is shallow and doesn't freeze over unlike the other Lakes. However, that doesn't mean its "warm". Agree. 5-10cm is a good call right now. During the early Jan storm, I got 15cm with no PL or ZR. Temperatures at YYZ with that storm never got above freezing. Models mishandled the thermals and the CAD that worked in across the SFC. We saw a similar scenario during the Ice Storm as well. Lets see. I hope we get atleast 3". You said that the lakes don't have a moderating effect anymore because they are frozen over, but Ontario isn't frozen over (at all), so it still plays a moderating effect. If you've got open water with temperatures above freezing, you're going to have moderation. You said "[there isn't] any body of water that can regulate temperatures to keep the surface warmer." Areas south of the 401 are going to struggle. Very, very borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 7-8" I saw rain with the early January storm, so thermals were an issue. Snowstorms was one of the few who never switched over to rain and remained +SN for hours on end. That storm met most of our expectations realistically (well, SSC spiralled into hysteria briefly and started punting out of spite but got himself back together). I think I got about 5"? Withdrawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Open letter to WestCoaster, You have to stop attacking other members in this forum. We're a community. We like to talk about the weather. We're not always right, that's a given. But you chill the whole atmosphere of free debate here when you make derisive comments (or inferences) about other members' forecasts. Henceforth, I'm not going to hesitate to report you to the moderators. Sincerely, SSC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't see how I have attacked anyone at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This seems more like an attack, if you recall, SSC: I made a call. I gave rationale. I busted. Name of the game. It happens. You made a call. You gave absolutely no reasoning except that you're an insufferable weenie. You got lucky. So kindly **** off. I haven't attacked anyone, I think that is really unfair to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't see how I have attacked anyone at all? Calling my Jan 4-5 forecast "hysterical". The icon next to Blizzard96's forecast of 7-8". You want to disagree, that's fine. But you've got to show more respect then you have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This seems more like an attack, if you recall, SSC: I haven't attacked anyone, I think that is really unfair to say. Why don't you give the full context. You wrote "lol" next to my forecast. And I won't repeat that type of boorish behaviour going forward. Any future conflict between you and I will be handled by the staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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