Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 80s and early 90s had some awful winters which sort of skewed up the average. What we need now is a string of above normal Winters to bring that average back up. Since the PDO shifted, this is how the Winters have played out in terms of snowfall; 2007-08: Above normal 08-09: Above normal 09-10: Below normal 10-11: Above normal 11-12: Dont remind me! 12-13: near normal However, despite these statistics, the number of snowstorms (>15cm) has declined considerably since 2008-09. Lets see how the next few Winters play out! This century has had way more awful winters than the 1990s and 80s. 2001-02, 2009-10, 2011-12, 32.4cm falling in all of calendar year 2006 at YYZ. I mean those are some hideous winters that don't have a lot of competition in the 1980s or 1990s. The 1980s and 90s weren't as snowy as the very snowy 1970s but they, to me at least, represented a return to about normal winters. It's been the last 15 years or so where we've fallen off a cliff. So if anything has "skewed" the numbers it's been the addition of decade 2001-10 (as well as losing the snowy 70s). Interesting video from CTV Kitchener today says that winters such as this still look to be a thing of the past by 2050. Says that the average January temperature has warmed by 2 degrees Celsius since the 1960s. http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=282183 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Momz says 3-4" fell between the overnight clipper and LES band. I asked her to double check and she's sure of the numbers. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Momz says 3-4" fell between the overnight clipper and LES band. I asked her to double check and she's sure of the numbers. Not bad at all. YYZ as of yesterday is sitting at 63.3cm for the season. After today it will probably be at or above 65cm which would put us above 06-07. The Vaughan station is sitting at 92.8cm for the season as of yesterday Monthly mean temperature for January thru yesterday is -8.3C. I believe OttawaBlizzard is the closest out all of us to the Vaughan station. I'm interested in his seasonal total thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 YYZ as of yesterday is sitting at 63.3cm for the season. After today it will probably be at or above 65cm which would put us above 06-07. The Vaughan station is sitting at 92.8cm for the season as of yesterday Monthly mean temperature for January thru yesterday is -8.3C. I believe OttawaBlizzard is the closest out all of us to the Vaughan station. I'm interested in his seasonal total thus far. There is no Vaughan station. Buttonville (which I assume is what you're referring to) is in Markham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If we don't get a 6"+ storm before this season ends, it will tie last year for me in terms of quality. Right now this season is inching ahead simply due to more cold and sustained snow cover. What really hurts this year is the lack of many 4"+ storms (I haven't experienced one since the 2nd week of December!) and all the juicy storms that have either clipped or completely busted for us. It leaves a very sour taste in the mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If we don't get a 6"+ storm before this season ends, it will tie last year for me in terms of quality. Right now this season is inching ahead simply due to more cold and sustained snow cover. What really hurts this year is the lack of many 4"+ storms (I haven't experienced one since the 2nd week of December!) and all the juicy storms that have either clipped or completely busted for us. It leaves a very sour taste in the mouth. It's going to be hard to swallow the Friday storm if it ends up being mostly rain like the EURO is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's going to be hard to swallow the Friday storm if it ends up being mostly rain like the EURO is showing. I'd rather rain than ZR which the GEM had toyed with earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 YYZ as of yesterday is sitting at 63.3cm for the season. After today it will probably be at or above 65cm which would put us above 06-07. The Vaughan station is sitting at 92.8cm for the season as of yesterday Monthly mean temperature for January thru yesterday is -8.3C. I believe OttawaBlizzard is the closest out all of us to the Vaughan station. I'm interested in his seasonal total thus far. My snowfall measurements are very consistent with buttonville... 90.8cm thus far in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My snowfall measurements are very consistent with buttonville... 90.8cm thus far in my backyard. You're @ 401 and Avenue right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's going to be hard to swallow the Friday storm if it ends up being mostly rain like the EURO is showing. I really hope that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's going to be hard to swallow the Friday storm if it ends up being mostly rain like the EURO is showing. Would be surprised if we saw mostly rain given the fact that the PV is not far away and cold air will likely be in place either at the sfc or in the BL in some way, shape or form. Strong WPO/EPO ridging should also keep cold air available. The GFS/EC ENS are further south with thermals when compared to the ecmwf and gem. Favouring a comprimise currently, but when the AO/NAO are positive it can be a red flag for a northerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You're @ 401 and Avenue right? You got it. Nice memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Would be surprised if we saw mostly rain given the fact that the PV is not far away and cold air will likely be in place either at the sfc or in the BL in some way, shape or form. Strong WPO/EPO ridging should also keep cold air available. The GFS/EC ENS are further south with thermals when compared to the ecmwf and gem. Favouring a comprimise currently, but when the AO/NAO are positive it can be a red flag for a northerly track. I tend to agree. EURO's by its lonesome with the far north track and it's performance this winter leaves a lot to be desired. Just throwing out an ugly what if scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You got it. Nice memory. North York is officially at 68.6cm through Jan 20. Being generous, add 15cm for the last couple of clippers and that brings them up to 83.6cm. They're usually more towards the high end as it is so I'm thinking you've caught some blowing snow contamination. That being said, as a former imby snow measurer, I know how tough it can be in a residential area to do accurate measurements. If you can keep it to with 10cm of your nearest official climo station, you're doing a good job. For me unfortunately, my nearest climo station was the nipher at Pearson so keeping it within 10cm was almost impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Would be surprised if we saw mostly rain given the fact that the PV is not far away and cold air will likely be in place either at the sfc or in the BL in some way, shape or form. Strong WPO/EPO ridging should also keep cold air available. The GFS/EC ENS are further south with thermals when compared to the ecmwf and gem. Favouring a comprimise currently, but when the AO/NAO are positive it can be a red flag for a northerly track. I tend to agree. EURO's by its lonesome with the far north track and it's performance this winter leaves a lot to be desired. Just throwing out an ugly what if scenario. Just to confirm, this is for an event on Friday 31st, or the one next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just to confirm, this is for an event on Friday 31st, or the one next week. Friday 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 North York is officially at 68.6cm through Jan 20. Being generous, add 15cm for the last couple of clippers and that brings them up to 83.6cm. They're usually more towards the high end as it is so I'm thinking you've caught some blowing snow contamination. That being said, as a former imby snow measurer, I know how tough it can be in a residential area to do accurate measurements. If you can keep it to with 10cm of your nearest official climo station, you're doing a good job. For me unfortunately, my nearest climo station was the nipher at Pearson so keeping it within 10cm was almost impossible. Ya, your probably right. Curious to see how my backyard amounts will compare to YYZ and north york by the end of the season. Plenty of LR potential coming up as the pac opens up for business and MJO stalls over the western IO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Would be surprised if we saw mostly rain given the fact that the PV is not far away and cold air will likely be in place either at the sfc or in the BL in some way, shape or form. Strong WPO/EPO ridging should also keep cold air available. The GFS/EC ENS are further south with thermals when compared to the ecmwf and gem. Favouring a comprimise currently, but when the AO/NAO are positive it can be a red flag for a northerly track. We have a good chance at getting some decent snow this Friday-Saturday with the first wave but timing is crucial. If the clipper and the S/W phase nicely, a general 10-20cm would be expected across much of Southern Ontario. This storm would be the "appetizer", if the Feb 4th to 8th storm materializes as shown on the models. With a Weak SE ridge in place, a suppressed track is arguable in my opinion. I favor a track just north of the Ohio River Valley with this first wave. North York is officially at 68.6cm through Jan 20. Being generous, add 15cm for the last couple of clippers and that brings them up to 83.6cm. They're usually more towards the high end as it is so I'm thinking you've caught some blowing snow contamination. That being said, as a former imby snow measurer, I know how tough it can be in a residential area to do accurate measurements. If you can keep it to with 10cm of your nearest official climo station, you're doing a good job. For me unfortunately, my nearest climo station was the nipher at Pearson so keeping it within 10cm was almost impossible. I'm currently sitting at 80.9cm for the season. Where is the North York Station located btw? North York isnt very far from my house, only a 15-20 minute drive. Pearson's 63.3cm is the lowest amongst all stations in the GTA, lol. No surprise there! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Ya, your probably right. Curious to see how my backyard amounts will compare to YYZ and north york by the end of the season. Plenty of LR potential coming up as the pac opens up for business and MJO stalls over the western IO. I've been near Steeles and Islington all day today and measured 12cm total on the ground. I don't know what they had before this weekend, but I'm sure they had something, so that would be <10cm that fell over the weekend. I figure Pearson will have similar numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Temperature still at about -16. Have a feeling we won't make the forecast low of minus 22 due to it being so windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We have a good chance at getting some decent snow this Friday-Saturday with the first wave but timing is crucial. If the clipper and the S/W phase nicely, a general 10-20cm would be expected across much of Southern Ontario. This storm would be the "appetizer", if the Feb 4th to 8th storm materializes as shown on the models. With a Weak SE ridge in place, a suppressed track is arguable in my opinion. I favor a track just north of the Ohio River Valley with this first wave. I'm currently sitting at 80.9cm for the season. Where is the North York Station located btw? North York isnt very far from my house, only a 15-20 minute drive. Pearson's 63.3cm is the lowest amongst all stations in the GTA, lol. No surprise there! haha Yeah, but the only reason Pearson is lower than downtown is because downtown got smoked with LES on December 14th. Overall, it's tough to blame the nipher for Pearson being the lowest of the 4 main GTA climo stations. This winter at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Pearson's total seems pretty reasonable. We don't have to worry about slant sticking with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The latest GGEM looks like a nice hit for the GTA this weekend per black and white charts. It's also cooler than the 12z and judging by the black and white maps, it stays as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Little recap of the event that went through early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Little recap of the event that went through early this morning. Amazing stuff. Some of that stuff must have hit my area in the middle of the night around 3 am but I wasn't up to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The latest GGEM looks like a nice hit for the GTA this weekend per black and white charts. It's also cooler than the 12z and judging by the black and white maps, it stays as snow. The first week of February actually looks quite interesting, before another arctic shot the second week, as per the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Amazing stuff. Some of that stuff must have hit my area in the middle of the night around 3 am but I wasn't up to see it. Yeah I set my alarm for this, didn't want to miss out on potential thunder snow. A few strikes hit just northwest of here but I didn't hear any thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The first week of February actually looks quite interesting, before another arctic shot the second week, as per the 0z GFS. Yeah I really like our chances from here to Toronto for synoptic stuff the next few weeks. The pattern goes from extremely progressive to amplified. Which would get rid of this brutal cold, thank goodness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah I really like our chances from here to Toronto for synoptic stuff the next few weeks. The pattern goes from extremely progressive to amplified. Which would get rid of this brutal cold, thank goodness! The 0z GFS, along with JB seem to be hinting at one more arctic shot in the 10-15 day period. Likely not as severe as the January ones though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah I really like our chances from here to Toronto for synoptic stuff the next few weeks. The pattern goes from extremely progressive to amplified. Which would get rid of this brutal cold, thank goodness! Seriously, if we can get a snowy February up here, and a Big Dog storm, this winter will be an A+ in my books...well, maybe an A as the ice storm was kind of rough for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.