snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Parents reporting "just a dusting" in central Etobicoke. If that's true that's SSS (some serious screwage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 About 2cm in midtown. That makes my weekend storm total 4cm (2 Fri, 2 today). I nailed my forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized. Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized. Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century. I feel like February/March is the best time for synoptic systems in our area. The largest synoptic storms I remember in Buffalo have occurred during these months. A few years ago we had 2 15+ synoptic storms with a 2 week period in March. I remember it clearly because I got in a bad car accident in one of them. Around here Late November-January is prime for Lake Effect and Feb-March are our Synoptic storms it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I feel like February/March is the best time for synoptic systems in our area. The largest synoptic storms I remember in Buffalo have occurred during these months. A few years ago we had 2 15+ synoptic storms with a 2 week period in March. I remember it clearly because I got in a bad car accident in one of them. Around here Late November-January is prime for Lake Effect and Feb-March are our Synoptic storms it seems. Hmm thats an interesting point. January is often the coldest month of the season and gradients between the subtropics and the northern regions is weak. However, January is a prime month for clippers to develop given the strong Polar Jet and we've seen plenty this month, . February, March, and December would be ideal months for storms to amplify and wallop our area. It ties in perfectly with the seasons changing thus producing tight gradients, which in meteorological terms would mean better storm development. And I hope the car accident wasnt that bad. Thats awful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hmm thats an interesting point. January is often the coldest month of the season and gradients between the subtropics and the northern regions is weak. However, January is a prime month for clippers to develop given the strong Polar Jet and we've seen plenty this month, . February, March, and December would be ideal months for storms to amplify and wallop our area. It ties in perfectly with the seasons changing thus producing tight gradients, which in meteorological terms would mean better storm development. Your analysis is pretty much spot on. January is clipper/lake enhancement events for this area. They nickel and dime our way to respective totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized. Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century. It was lake enhanced. So partially synoptic. And technically, the January 2-3, 2003 storm was lake enhanced as well. So you'd have to go back to January 2002 (Jan 31, 2002) for the last purely synoptic 6"+ January snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll measure the snow depth tomorrow morning. Been watching the Grammies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep. Highest amounts down towards niagara, burlington and KBUF but thinking we can pick up an additional 1-2" in the city. Judging from radar, the arctic front will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Cant wait for it. SE MI is getting pounded right now and the returns from South West Ontario are encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SE MI crew are talking about amounts over 5cm and couple that with this afternoon/evenings early bout of snow and we could see amounts around 7-10+cm across the GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The SE MI crew are talking about amounts over 5cm and couple that with this afternoon/evenings early bout of snow and we could see amounts around 7-10+cm across the GTA Here's hoping the band holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here's hoping the band holds together. Remember, we've lost the onshore (SSE) flow. Now it's downsloping from the SW. I'm not saying for sure the frontal pcpn is going to fall apart but there's at least a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Remember, we've lost the onshore (SSE) flow. Now it's downsloping from the SW. I'm not saying for sure the frontal pcpn is going to fall apart but there's at least a risk. Radar looks more impressive towards London. http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr The precip is already starting to break-up a bit as it heads towards the GTA. I'm going with another 2cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Radar looks more impressive towards London. http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr The precip is already starting to break-up a bit as it heads towards the GTA. I'm going with another 2cm. I have a good feeling judging by latest short term models for this band. Thinking we get some insane rates for 2-3 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have a good feeling judging by latest short term models for this band. Thinking we get some insane rates for 2-3 hours here. Not sure about 2-3 hours worth, but there's definitely some 2"/hr history with this from from SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 YYZ with 1.0mm yesterday which translates over to a cm and change of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good stuff's gonna miss us to the south. WE SUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good stuff's gonna miss us to the south. WE SUCK! The Toronto snow dome never lets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest Euro looking nice for the first wave. In line with the GGEM but much cooler. GFS and Ukie are on their own boat. Battle between two pairs of models, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Toronto snow dome never lets up Fantasizing about that blob of 30 dbz between KW and Hamilton moving towards us but based on the radar loop it's likely headed for Lk Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do I need my eyes checked? Looks like its aiming right for the west end? Im worried about it falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Fantasizing about that blob of 30 dbz between KW and Hamilton moving towards us but based on the radar loop it's likely headed for Lk Ontario Maybe some deformation bands will form as it heads towards the GTA, but one can only hope . I guess were left with fake optimism that never becomes reality. -_- F*cking piss off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do I need my eyes checked? Looks like its aiming right for the west end? Im worried about it falling apart You've got a shot with it on the Mississauga lakeshore. Will miss Toronto proper for the most part I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know, after looking at the last 3 frames I say south Toronto has a pretty good chance at getting into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know, after looking at the last 3 frames I say south Toronto has a pretty good chance at getting into it. Yeah, on second inspection, you might be on to something. Even the lighter stuff to the north is coating the 401 pretty good per cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 well I can confirm down here its snowing at a good clip. didn't take long to re-coat the wet roads from the earlier snowfall. I think tomorrows commute will be interesting. Even if its not snowing hard, off and on flurries, slushy roads and blowing snow will bring the 401/QEW to a crawl. Especially since rush hour starts in about 3 and a half hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sharp increase in the wind this hour, and a lot of blowing snow outside reducing visibility. Ballpark 4-5cm since this evening. Just popped downstairs to get a measurement, but the wind has blown the parking lot clean of snowfall into drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Lots of blowing snow again. View from my balcony at the moment: Same view a couple hours ago: (apartment tower in background 400m from here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I set my alarm to see what this band looks like when it comes through here. There is a lightning signature showing up across the Lake in Canada, hopefully we can catch some thunder snow for the 3rd time this year. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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