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Southern Ontario Winter '13/'14 Discussion


harrisale

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Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized.

 

Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century.  

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Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized.

 

Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century.  

 

I feel like February/March is the best time for synoptic systems in our area. The largest synoptic storms I remember in Buffalo have occurred during these months. A few years ago we had 2 15+ synoptic storms with a 2 week period in March. I remember it clearly because I got in a bad car accident in one of them. Around here Late November-January is prime for Lake Effect and Feb-March are our Synoptic storms it seems.

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I feel like February/March is the best time for synoptic systems in our area. The largest synoptic storms I remember in Buffalo have occurred during these months. A few years ago we had 2 15+ synoptic storms with a 2 week period in March. I remember it clearly because I got in a bad car accident in one of them. Around here Late November-January is prime for Lake Effect and Feb-March are our Synoptic storms it seems.

 

Hmm thats an interesting point. January is often the coldest month of the season and gradients between the subtropics and the northern regions is weak. However, January is a prime month for clippers to develop given the strong Polar Jet and we've seen plenty this month, :lol:. February, March, and December would be ideal months for storms to amplify and wallop our area. It ties in perfectly with the seasons changing thus producing tight gradients, which in meteorological terms would mean better storm development.  

 

And I hope the car accident wasnt that bad. Thats awful! :( 

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Hmm thats an interesting point. January is often the coldest month of the season and gradients between the subtropics and the northern regions is weak. However, January is a prime month for clippers to develop given the strong Polar Jet and we've seen plenty this month, :lol:. February, March, and December would be ideal months for storms to amplify and wallop our area. It ties in perfectly with the seasons changing thus producing tight gradients, which in meteorological terms would mean better storm development.  

 

Your analysis is pretty much spot on. January is clipper/lake enhancement events for this area. They nickel and dime our way to respective totals.

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Reading up on SSC's post in the "January thread", I was very intrigued by what he said. It does seem very unusual for Toronto to not receive a storm greater than 15cm since Jan 2004. Now here's the catch! The Jan 2004 storm wasn't synoptic so minus that and we get 11 years instead of 10. (Jan 2003 had a storm greater than 15cm). Moreover, regions surrounding the GTA have done exceptionally well in the snow department on a seasonal basis, which is why it wouldn't be logical to say its related to Climate Change because its very localized.

 

Its hard to take in, but it speaks volume about the "GTA snow drought" of the 21st Century.  

 

It was lake enhanced. So partially synoptic. And technically, the January 2-3, 2003 storm was lake enhanced as well. So you'd have to go back to January 2002 (Jan 31, 2002) for the last purely synoptic 6"+ January snowstorm. 

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Remember, we've lost the onshore (SSE) flow. Now it's downsloping from the SW. I'm not saying for sure the frontal pcpn is going to fall apart but there's at least a risk.

 

Radar looks more impressive towards London. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr

 

The precip is already starting to break-up a bit as it heads towards the GTA. I'm going with another 2cm. 

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Radar looks more impressive towards London. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr

 

The precip is already starting to break-up a bit as it heads towards the GTA. I'm going with another 2cm. 

 

I have a good feeling judging by latest short term models for this band. Thinking we get some insane rates for 2-3 hours here.

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Fantasizing about that blob of 30 dbz between KW and Hamilton moving towards us but based on the radar loop it's likely headed for Lk Ontario :(

Maybe some deformation bands will form as it heads towards the GTA, but one can only hope :(. I guess were left with fake optimism that never becomes reality. -_-

F*cking piss off!

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well I can confirm down here its snowing at a good clip. didn't take long to re-coat the wet roads from the earlier snowfall. I think tomorrows commute will be interesting. Even if its not snowing hard, off and on flurries, slushy roads and blowing snow will bring the 401/QEW to a crawl. Especially since rush hour starts in about 3 and a half hours 

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