harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Thread for specific Southern Ontario and Greater Toronto Area discussion, obs, historical chat and local meterologist critiques The intention here is to keep some of the chatter out of the other threads which out-of-region posters likely don't want to bother reading. Of course we can still contribute to the other threads, but if it's something you think anyone outside of Ontario wouldn't be interested in, let's keep it here. No real 'rules', use your own discretion. Metric system encouraged! Of course being the true north strong and free, anyone can feel free to post here if you think it's relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 For the inaugural post in this thread, how about that Environment Canada bust last night? I'm not sure anyone received the 5-10cm that was called for in the special weather statement. There was about 1.5cm on the ground when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 For the inaugural post in this thread, how about that Environment Canada bust last night? I'm not sure anyone received the 5-10cm that was called for in the special weather statement. There was about 1.5cm on the ground when I woke up this morning. Yeah, Environment Canada did bust, but it's a kind of "damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Suppose they hadn't called for anything and 5-10cm had materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wind chill warnings issued again. "Snow" forecast now, with drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah, Environment Canada did bust, but it's a kind of "damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Suppose they hadn't called for anything and 5-10cm had materialized. True I suppose it was worth mentioning, although model support aside from the RGEM seemed to be lacking. Fault could also have been with the media, who really made no mention of the "if" potential with this system and jumped all over the high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think in general the media's misrepresentation of EC's forecasts hurts EC's reputation more than EC's forecasts themselves. Just my two cents on that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 EC calling for 7-9cm Friday night into Saturday morning, with 1-5cm during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think in general the media's misrepresentation of EC's forecasts hurts EC's reputation more than EC's forecasts themselves. Just my two cents on that matter. Agree. The Special Weather Statement should have been worded better in order to avoid misrepresentation. It's a lock that this month will finish up below normal. It's only a matter of how cold the month finishes. This will be the 3rd straight below normal month for Pearson Airport (YYZ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Weather network is showing 5-10cm friday night with near blizzard conditions outside the big cities. This would be the biggest "storm" in weeks here if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 EC calling for 7-9cm Friday night into Saturday morning, with 1-5cm during the day on Sunday. Where did you see those numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Can you guys please explain to me what this thing called a "cm" is in detail? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Buffalo Weather you should feel free to also post in this thread since you have a lot of weather in common with the GTA/Niagara region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Buffalo Weather you should feel free to also post in this thread since you have a lot of weather in common with the GTA/Niagara region (aside from LES) I will, sounds good! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Buffalo Weather you should feel free to also post in this thread since you have a lot of weather in common with the GTA/Niagara region What about SEMI since we are so close to Sarnia and Windsor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Where did you see those numbers? spotwx.com gives you a detailed output of EC's computer-based forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 SEMI isn't allowed to post in here because January 5th happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 spotwx.com gives you a detailed output of EC's computer-based forecasts Oh nice. Thanks for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What about SEMI since we are so close to Sarnia and Windsor? I didn't start the thread but I would be okay adding SEMI and WNY to the title since Detroit and Buffalo are both major cities that border Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't start the thread but I would be okay adding SEMI and WNY to the title since Detroit and Buffalo are both major cities that border Southern Ontario. Ha this is getting tricky already. Original intention was actually just a Greater Toronto Area thread so I think I'm going to leave it as is for now. Like I said though, anyone can post here if they want. No limitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I didn't start the thread but I would be okay adding SEMI and WNY to the title since Detroit and Buffalo are both major cities that border Southern Ontario. No worries. Was really just kidding. Some of us will still post in here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah, Environment Canada did bust, but it's a kind of "damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Suppose they hadn't called for anything and 5-10cm had materialized. Suppose a meteor fell out of the sky and demolished Toronto and no one had warned us about it. You have to play the probabilities. There was no justification for yesterday's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Suppose a meteor fell out of the sky and demolished Toronto and no one had warned us about it. You have to play the probabilities. There was no justification for yesterday's forecast. I don't see the big deal. They said flurries at time heavy with local amounts of 5-10cm. Local amounts are never a guarantee, it was not issued as widespread. Most places did see flurries, although those "local amounts" were not hit here. A special weather statement was issued in case the band came on shore, which it didn't, but no warnings or watches were issued. The RGEM had it coming onshore, and it's "our model," so I can understand them at least putting up an advisory, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't see the big deal. They said flurries at time heavy with local amounts of 5-10cm. Local amounts are never a guarantee, it was not issued as widespread. Most places did see flurries, although those "local amounts" were not hit here. A special weather statement was issued in case the band came on shore, which it didn't, but no warnings or watches were issued. The RGEM had it coming onshore, and it's "our model," so I can understand them at least putting up an advisory, just in case. When EC uses "local amounts" for snowfall accumulations, the same rules apply as if it were a non-qualified accumulation. There has to be a likelihood of the amounts verifying. In the case of local accumulations, in contrast to widespread accumultations, it's likely that a portion of the of geographic forecast zone gets those amounts, but not all of it. There's still a probabilistic component that has to be met. In the case of yesterday, it was NEVER likely that ANY part of Toronto would receive 5-10cm of snow. It was remote chance at best. But because they put it in their forecast you get the general public into hysterics about a pending snowstorm (anecdotal but my mom called me yesterday and used the phrase "snow storm" because of what the tv told her). It's irresponsible to see one RGEM run and base your whole forecast on that. They're terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ha this is getting tricky already. Original intention was actually just a Greater Toronto Area thread so I think I'm going to leave it as is for now. Like I said though, anyone can post here if they want. No limitations. Sounds good. Driving by the credit river the last couple weeks I have noticed that there is a barge and a excavator. Its breaking up the river ice at the mouth of the harbour that much is for sure. It may be drudging but I haven't seen it in action yet. Has anyone else noticed this in other rivers around the GTA? I have never seen this before in my 15 years in south Mississauga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 When EC uses "local amounts" for snowfall accumulations, the same rules apply as if it were a non-qualified accumulation. There has to be a likelihood of the amounts verifying. In the case of local accumulations, in contrast to widespread accumultations, it's likely that a portion of the of geographic forecast zone gets those amounts, but not all of it. There's still a probabilistic component that has to be met. In the case of yesterday, it was NEVER likely that ANY part of Toronto would receive 5-10cm of snow. It was remote chance at best. But because they put it in their forecast you get the general public into hysterics about a pending snowstorm (anecdotal but my mom called me yesterday and used the phrase "snow storm" because of what the tv told her). It's irresponsible to see one RGEM run and base your whole forecast on that. They're terrible. I agree with you on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Wind chill warnings issued again. "Snow" forecast now, with drifting. Getting real tired of these wind chills especially since I don't have a car. This is the 4th warning this year for Waterloo Region, and before 2014 we only had four issued between 2006-13 - in '07, '08, and '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This seems to be a generally good idea, to have an Ontario sub-forum. Now we just need some weather. Just the extreme cold makes this spell interesting enough, snow or no snow. Lake Huron is getting very chilly and this could limit squall production but there are bound to be some blizzard-like squall bands setting up in the wake of the two upcoming waves. The 1971 event that I mentioned yesterday tracked across Georgian Bay and gave Sudbury about 20 cm of synoptic not lake effect snowfall before unleashing the mega-squall bands. Some of this upcoming guidance is starting to look a bit more like the 1971 set-up. That had also been quite a cold winter and Lake Huron must have been about the same temperature then as now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Getting real tired of these wind chills especially since I don't have a car. This is the 4th warning this year for Waterloo Region, and before 2014 we only had four issued between 2006-13 - in '07, '08, and '09. I haven't had much of a problem with it. Being from the west coast, temperatures below -5C are extremely rare, so I'm not accustomed to this type of cold. However, it really isn't that bad. It's dry and as long as you are sheltered from the wind and dressed with appropriate layering, you can barely tell that it's the temperature you see on the thermometer. Living downtown I find that I'm very sheltered from the wind (and from the worst of the cold). I don't take the wind chill warnings very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The Euro showed 2-3" for the GTA with the Sun-Mon event. Alot of variables at play, so its best to take every solution with a grain of salt till tomorrow night IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 SEMI isn't allowed to post in here because January 5th happened. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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